Australian Open 2023: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick

(L-R) Iga Świątek and Elena Rybakina
(L-R) Iga Świątek and Elena Rybakina

Match Details

Match Fixture: Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina

Tournament: Australian Open 2023

Date: January 22, 2023

Round: Fourth Round (Round of 16)

Venue: Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia.

Category: Grand Slam.

Surface: Hard.

Prize Money: A$76,500,000.

Live telecast: USA - ESPN | UK - Eurosport | India - Sony Six, Sony Ten & Sony Liv.

Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina preview

Iga Swiatek at the 2023 Australian Open
Iga Swiatek at the 2023 Australian Open

World No. 1 Iga Swiatek is set to appear against Kazakh player Elena Rybakina in the fourth round of the 2023 Australian Open on Sunday, January 22.

Iga's toughest win of the tournament so far was her first-round match against Germany's Jule Niemeir. The only break point in the first set was won by Iga at the crucial stage of 5-4, who closed the set at 6-4. The second set saw both players breaking serve with the World No.1 ultimately coming out on top. Though it was a straight-sets victory (6-4, 7-5), it took Iga almost two hours to send the German packing.

The Polish player's second-round match was against Colombian Camila Osorio. She dominated the match by winning the match 6-2, 6-3. Iga Swiatek's serve was broken once deep into the second set but that was not enough for the Colombian to make a comeback at the 2023 Australian Open.

Iga Swiatek's third-round match against Spanish player Cristina Busca was a masterclass in domination, with Swiatek finishing the match in only 55 minutes. Swiatek only let Busca win one game, winning the match 6-0, 6-1.

However, Elena Rybakina's road to the Round of 16 was not as comfortable as her opponent's. Rybakina defeated Italy's Elisabetta Cocciaretto in the first round 7-5, 6-3. The first set saw some service breaks, with Rybakina breaking Cocciaretto's very first service game to go 3-0 up.

Cocciaretto broke Rybakina's serve at 5-3, bringing her back on serve. But Rybakina broke her opponent's serve at the crucial 6-5 stage and won the first set 7-5. Rybakina comfortably closed the second set at 6-3 to win the match.

Rybakina's second-round match was against Slovenian Kaja Juvan. Rybakina closed the match within an hour at 6-2, 6-1. But Rybakina's third-round match against 2022 Australian Open finalist Danielle Collins was not a one-sided affair. Rybakina won 6-2, 5-7, 6-2 in two hours and five minutes. Rybakina only gave one service break opportunity to the American at 5-6 which she converted. That cost Rybakina the second set. She pulled herself back up in the third set and won the final set 6-2.

Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina head-to-head

Officially, Iga Swiatek leads head-to-head with 1-0. The pair previously clashed at the WTA J&T Banka Ostrava Open 2021, with Swiatek winning the match 7-6(5), 6-2.

However, on December 24, 2022, Rybakina defeated Swiatek 6-3,6-1 at the World Tennis League. The World Tennis League is not a WTA event but a mixed-gender exhibition tournament. Yet, Rybakina's win over Swiatek cannot be ignored.

Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina odds

Player MoneylineHandicap BetsTotal Games
Iga Swiatek-500 -1.5 (-165) Over 19.5 (-155)
Elena Rybakina +340 +1.5 (+120) Under 19.5 (+110)

All odds are sourced from BETMGM.

Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina prediction

Elena Rybakina at the 2023 Australian Open
Elena Rybakina at the 2023 Australian Open

Swiatek and Rybakina are both Grand Slam Champions. Rybakina prevailed in the 2022 Wimbledon final against Ons Jabeur in three sets. Swiatek's first Major victory came at the French Open in 2020 where she defeated American Sofia Kenin in straight sets.

Swiatek had an enviable 2022 by winning two Grand Slams. She won the French Open by defeating rising star Coco Gauff and the US Open by defeating Ons Jabeur, both in straight sets.

Throughout the 2023 Australian Open, Swiatek and Rybakina have had a similar journey to the fourth round. Both players have played almost identical matches. Swiatek was on the court for a total of 258 minutes, while Rybakina was on-court for 266 minutes.

Even the distribution of match timings for both players has been similar. They have played matches for two hours, one hour and 30 minutes, and an under-an-hour match. However, Swiatek is yet to drop a set.

Rybakina's biggest asset is her serve as she is at the top of the leaderboard in the women's singles with 18 aces in three matches. She also blasted a 195 km/h serve, making it the fastest serve amongst women in the 2023 Australian Open.

With respect to overall form, Swiatek has the edge on Rybakina but Rybakina will not go down easily and if she continues to hold her serve she may even turn the tables on Swiatek.

Pick: Swiatek to win in three sets.

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Edited by Ankush Das
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