Rafael Nadal is every tennis watcher, pundit and fan’s favourite to win this year’s French Open, sending him to his much-vaunted La Decima. Sitting on an eye-watering nine titles here, a record in every sense of the word, Rafa has this year firmly declared himself as the favourite to win the French Open 2017 with a slew of big clay-court titles – each of them breaking his own records – in the lead-up to the clay Slam.
Read More: 5 reasons why Rafael Nadal is the French Open favourite
Here’s how it looks for other top players in the draw:
First quarter
Top seed Andy Murray headlines this quarter, but for once might not have as easy a draw as he would have liked – or has had at the start of the year. He starts off against Russia’s Andrey Kuznetsov, who may be the World No 85 but is a gutsy opponent, and not a simple one for Murray either. Of their two meetings, one has been at the Major level, with Kuznetsov taxing Murray in two sets and taking one off him.
Should that go smoothly, Murray will face Martin Klizan in Round 2 – but in the third round is where Murray’s biggest opponents will begin to hit. Here he faces 2009 US Open winner Juan Martin del Potro (seeded 29th) who has been enjoying a strong return to tennis from the 2016 season – the crowning glory his entire Olympic run. After starting off with a first-round win over then No. 1 Novak Djokovic, Del Potro steamrolled opponents until the final – where he took a set off the eventual champion – Murray.
While Murray leads the pair’s head-to-head record 6-3, he has not had a single easy win over the tall Argentine. The pair played each other twice last year, athough neither event was part of the ATP Calendar – at the Olympics and most recently at the Davis Cup tie between Argentina and Great Britain, with Del Potro winning a mammoth five-setter.
With Del Potro’s humongous ascent – and return – to form, and Murray’s sharp decline and illness struggles, we could well see the World No. 1 exit in Round 3.
Big server John Isner is in this quarter, seeded 21st, with 13th seed Tomas Berdych a possible rival for Del Potro in Round 4, should Murray crash out.
Murray is in the same quarter of the draw as Italian Open champion Alexander Zverev, and the same half as 2015 Roland-Garros champion Stan Wawrinka.
Murray’s (predicted) road to the quarter-finals:
R1: Andrey Kuznetsov
R2: Martin Klizan
R3: Juan Martin Del Potro
R4: Tomas Berdych
Fresh off his Italian Open win, No. 9 seed and recent World No. 10 Alexander Zverev will face giant-killer Fernando Verdasco in the first round. This will be the third meeting for the pair, who have each beaten the other once – although it is Zverev, not his older rival, who has the clay-court win, in the Round of 64 at the 2017 Madrid Masters.
We expect Zverev to be able to power through despite some strong names in early rounds. The 20-year-old German this year won his first ever home – and clay- title in Bavaria, his second Tour title overall, following it up with a rousing run at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia where he completely outclassed World No. 2 Novak Djokovic. That win also made Zverev the youngest player since Novak Djokovic to win an ATP Masters 1000 level title.
Breaking the record of the rival across the net from you – and a man considered one of the Greatest of All Time is no mean feat, and Zverev’s gameplay and on-court demeanour have improved significantly over the past year, all of which will only add to what is a technically and strategically astute game.
Round 3 might pose a roadblock to Zverev, with Pablo Cuevas his opponent in that round. The Uruguayan ace has won three clay court titles in 2017 alone – two doubles and one singles title, taking the sweep at Sao Paulo and winning top honours with Rohan Bopanna at the Monte Carlo Masters.
Cuevas has six singles titles – all of them on clay, and seven doubles – of which 6 are on clay. To say that the 31-year-old, currently #23 in the singles rankings, is a clay court specialist, would be an understatement.
This worry will likely be compounded by the fact that the pair’s only meeting – at the recently-concluded 2017 Madrid Masters – went in favour of Cuevas, with the World No. 23 progressing to the semi-finals, where he went down to Nadal-defeater Dominic Thiem.
Although the result of this match might not be certain, it is likely to be a well-contested one.
Zverev, should he overcome Cuevas, will meet Kei Nishikori (8) in the fourth round. The Japanese ace has had neither a notable season nor a very bad one, so this, should Zverev play it, should be a tamer, easier win than R3. Nishikori, however, might not have the easiest route there – and could himself go down to big-serving Abierto Mexicano Telcel winner Sam Querrey in Round 3.
Zverev’s (predicted) Road to the QFs:
R1: Fernando Verdasco
R2: Pierre-Hugues Herbert
R3: Pablo Cuevas
R4: Kei Nishikori/Sam Querrey
Second Quarter:
Former champion and 2016 semi-finalist Stan Wawrinka (3) is placed at the top of this quarter, and starts off against Ukraine’s Alexandr Dolgopolov. One might expect Wawrinka to, as he has in recent years, continue his good form against Dolgopolov – but the Ukrainian leads him 2-1 in the matches they have played – one of those on clay.
The two have not played each other since 2014, however, and Wawrinka has since gone on to win the French Open and US Open, having already won his Australian Open title. The Swiss ace has also sustained himself as World No. 3 for a significant period of time, and with a final at the Indian Wells Masters this year and consistent form, should not find it difficult early on.
Wawrinka could face some trouble from Italy’s Fabio Fognini in Round 3. The Italian has never beaten Wawrinka on clay, but recently ousted World No. 1 Andy Murray at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia before a fairly-fought loss to eventual champion Alexander Zverev.
But that is not Wawrinka’s biggest challenge. Also in his quarter are former finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, clay court specialists David Ferrer and Feliciano Lopez, and perhaps Wawrinka’s own nemesis Nick Kyrgios (18), whom he could face in the quarters.
Wawrinka’s (predicted) Road to the QFs:
R1: Qualifier
R2: Alexandr Dolgopolov
R3: Fabio Fognini
R4: Gael Monfils
Third Quarter
Fourth seed and tournament favourite Rafael Nadal (seeded 4th) is at the bottom of Q3 – meaning he could set up a quarter-final against #5 seed Milos Raonic. Although the Canadian has beaten Nadal twice, neither win has been on clay, and given Nadal’s form he should have a straightforward route through. Raonic starts off his own campaign against Steve Darcis.
Nadal, on the back of his own consistency alone, should have a straightforward, powerful route through to the semi-finals here – where he could face Novak Djokovic in what could be a bigger match than the final. He could also set up a semi-final against recent rival Dominic Thiem, should the young Austrian, described by Nadal himself as a “future Roland Garros winner,” be able to trump Novak Djokovic.
This year, Nadal clinched his tenth titles at the Monte Carlo Masters and the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell respectively, and a fifth at the Mutua Madrid Open – each of those an extension of his own records. The Spanish clay-court GOAT also reached the semi-finals of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, where he was pipped to win yet another record-extending eighth title, but was thwarted by an inspired performance from Dominic Thiem.
We see an easy route for Rafael Nadal through to the semi-finals, if not the finals here.
Nadal’s (predicted) Road to the QFs:
R1: Benoit Paire
R2: Robin Haase
R3: Gilles Simon/Viktor Troicki
R4: Jack Sock/Roberto Bautista Agut
Fourth Quarter
Novak Djokovic is at the bottom of the draw – and this quarter, by virtue of being the second seed. The defending champion, who last year overcame his Roland Garros ‘jinx’ with a win over Andy Murray, has had quite the struggle with form this year, especially at the Grand Slam level – losing out to Denis Istomin in Round 2 at the Australian Open, where he was defending champion.
Despite his struggling season, however, Djokovic has shown flashes of brilliance – most recently at the finals of the Italian Open, despite an eventual loss to Alexander Zverev in the finals. The Serbian had an inspired semi-final win over Dominic Thiem, who beat Nadal at a tournament the Spaniard has won seven times – and on Nadal’s best surface.
This will also mark Djokovic’s first Grand Slam with Andre Agassi as coach, so things are bound to be interesting. The two have already showed some great chemistry from their earliest session, and although it might be too early to judge, 20 Majors speak volumes.
Djokovic starts off against Spain’s Marcel Granollers, with a fairly simple route to the quarter-finals – where he’s likely to set up another meeting with clay-court wunderkind Dominic Thiem – or David Goffin.
But fans will be waiting for the semifinals here, where Djokovic could set up a blockbuster Rafael Nadal match, with both drawn in the same half of the tournament. That will bbe an acid test for Djokovic – and one that, based on current results, should go firmly the way of Nadal. But the Serbian ace is not one of tennis’ best former No. 1s for nothing, so he could yet have an ace up his sleeve.
The French Open commences on the 28th of May 2017.
