French Open 2024 Draw: Rafael Nadal's projected path to the final ft. R1 clash with Alexander Zverev and SF with Novak Djokovic

Rafael Nadal will need to be at his best from the get-go as he was handed a tough draw at the 2024 French Open, which was revealed on Thursday, May 23. He is seeking his 23rd Major crown, as well as his record 15th title at the venue.

The Spaniard's comeback has been quite rocky thus far. He initially returned in January but sustained another injury which forced him to skip the Australian Open. He then returned for the clay swing and lost to Alex de Minaur in the second round of the Barcelona Open upon his comeback.

Nadal registered his best result of the season with a fourth-round appearance at the Madrid Open, losing to Jiri Lehecka 7-5, 6-4. He couldn't sustain the momentum and suffered a 6-1, 6-3 loss to Hubert Hurkacz in the second round of the Italian Open.

Nadal has been in this exact situation before only to turn it around at the French Open. Whether that happens yet again remains to be seen. With that in mind, here's a look at his road to the final of this year's tournament:

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R1 opponent - Alexander Zverev

Alexander Zverev at the 2024 Italian Open.

Nadal couldn't have asked for a tougher start to his French Open campaign. Zverev just won the Italian Open and has made the semifinals in Paris for the last three years. The two met in the semifinals here in 2022, during which the German sustained a major injury and was forced to sit out the rest of the season.

Nadal leads Zverev 7-3 in the head-to-head, though the latter has won three of their last five matches. While it is going to be an uphill battle for the Spaniard to make it past this round given his opponent's form, one cannot count him out at the French Open.

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Possible R2 opponent - David Goffin/Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Should Nadal win his opener, then he could face former top-10 player Goffin. However, the latter is a shadow of the player he used to be these days. He has just two main draw wins to his name this season, which is a lot less than the Spaniard, who's on the comeback trail.

Mpetshi Perricard is a promising young talent, though getting the better of a player of Nadal's stature could be a tall order for him at this point. This round should be easy to get through for the 14-time French Open champion.

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Possible R3 opponent - Tallon Griekspoor

If the seeds hold up, then Greikspoor is likely to be the Spaniard's third-round opponent. However, he's yet to advance beyond the second round in Paris. Rising Italian youngster Luciano Darderi has the potential to make it this far.

Darderi captured his maiden ATP title at the Cordoba Open earlier this year and has cracked the top 50 of the rankings. This could be his time to shine and he has the game to do so as well.

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Possible R4 opponent - Karen Khachanov/Holger Rune

Holger Rune at the 2024 Monte-Carlo Masters.

Rune has made the last eight of the French Open in the last couple of years. However, that seems like a long shot this time around. He suffered early exits at the Madrid Open and the Italian Open and consequently dropped out of the top 10 of the rankings. He's yet to play a match against the former World No. 1.

Khachanov has performed reasonably well during this clay swing and can be counted on to make it this far. Nadal will also hope for the same, considering his 8-0 record against the Russian.

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Possible QF opponent - Daniil Medvedev

While Medvedev has improved his results on clay, that might not be sufficient to get the better of Nadal. The Russian made the quarterfinals in Madrid and followed it up with a fourth-round finish in Rome. His record at the French Open isn't boastworthy but he did reach the quarterfinals in 2021.

Medvedev's still quite vulnerable on clay, so the Spaniard could instead face another player from this open section of the draw. De Minaur is the next highest seed but he has never made it past the second round here. Alexander Bublik could surprise everyone with a deep run, though he's too unpredictable.

Veterans Roberto Bautista Agut and Pablo Carreno Busta are also in this part of the draw. Given the caliber of players Nadal could face in the quarterfinals, if he's at his best, then this could be a winnable round for him.

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Possible SF opponent - Novak Djokovic/Casper Ruud

Nadal could meet his arch-rival Djokovic in a blockbuster semifinal showdown. The Serb is the defending champion but is far from his best these days. He's yet to reach a final this season. He's currently participating in the Geneva Open and is up against Greikspoor in the quarterfinals on Thursday evening (May 23).

Djokovic leads Nadal 30-29 in the head-to-head. Their previous four matches have been on clay, with the Spaniard winning three of them, including their most recent one at the 2022 French Open.

Ruud has been in pretty good form this season, especially on clay. While he lost tamely to the Spaniard when they met in the final here a couple of years ago, that might not be the case this time. The 22-time Major champion could find it tough to beat his younger rival if they lock horns in the semifinals.

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Possible Final opponent - Jannik Sinner/Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 Madrid Open.

Sinner and Alcaraz have been two of the season's most in-form players. However, the two are dealing with their respective injuries, which could put a dampener on their campaigns. But if they are back in top shape, then it wouldn't be surprising to see either one of them in the final.

Sinner could be crowned as the new World No. 1 by the end of the next fortnight, though it is also contingent on how Djokovic performs. Having won the Australian Open, he's on track to complete the Golden Calendar Grand Slam.

While the Italian has lost all three of his matches against Nadal, Alcaraz does have a win over him. Should either of these two next-gen players beat the Spaniard in the final, they will be the first to do so.

Stefanos Tsitsipas, the runner-up here in 2021, is another player who could make a deep run if either Sinner or Alcaraz go out early. Winning the title would be the perfect fairytale ending for Nadal. Regardless of how it all plays out, this is certainly going to be an emotional campaign for him.