Italian Open 2022: 3 things that could determine the outcome of Rafael Nadal's 3R clash with Denis Shapovalov

Third seed Rafael Nadal will face 13th seed Denis Shapovalov in the third round of the Italian Open on Thursday. Nadal beat John Isner in straight sets in the second round on Wednesday, while Shapovalov got the better of Nikoloz Basilashvili.

Nadal leads the head-to-head against Shapovalov 4-1 and defeated him at the Italian Open last year after saving match points. He also managed to overcome a stiff challenge from the Canadian in a five-set thriller at the Australian Open earlier this year.

On that note, here's a look at three factors that could determine the outcome of the match:

#1 Can Shapovalov hit through Nadal with his powerful forehand?

Nadal and Shapovalov have powerful forehands and like to dictate play with that shot. Thus, the match could feature a number of crosscourt forehand exchanges between the pair.

While the Spaniard imparts a lot more topspin on his shot, Shapovalov hits it a little flatter and with less margin for error. The Canadian hit 18 winners against Basilashvili in the previous round, but Nadal’s defense is far superior to the Georgian's and the Spaniard will look to frustrate his 23-year-old opponent into committing mistakes.

For Shapovalov, the key will be to stay patient and pull the trigger at the right time. Going for broke too early in the slow conditions in Rome could lead to his downfall.

#2 Will Shapovalov's one-handed backhand hold up?

Shapovalov's slinging crosscourt backhand could turn out to be a powerful weapon against Nadal

Shapovalov has the ability to generate tremendous power on his single-handed backhand, especially when he's pulled out wide. Given Nadal's ability to generate sharp angles, that shot might have an important role to play in the context of Thursday’s match.

The Spaniard will likely target the Canadian's backhand and see if it cracks. Shapovalov, on his part, should also look to target Nadal's backhand, which is definitely the Spaniard's weaker wing.

#3 Shapovalov's willingness to rush the net

Shapovalov did not come to the net frequently against Basilashvili but on the rare occasions he ventured forward, he was flawless. The Canadian has a solid netgame and might need to resort to serve and volleying against Nadal, given the Spaniard's deep return position.

But the Spaniard has among the best passing shots on tour and Shapovalov will need to ensure he does not give Nadal too many easy looks.

Nadal too is no slouch at the net. The Spaniard has great hand skills and generally approaches the net when his opponent is in a poor position on the court.

All things considered, the player that's willing to take risks and move forward could be the one to reap the rewards.