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Aryna Sabalenka is gearing up for her seventh career appearance at Roland Garros. The World No. 2 will be eager to improve on her last year's result at the claycourt Major, where she lost in the semifinals to Karolina Muchova despite holding a match point.
The Belarusian has put together a sublime campaign during the European claycourt swing in 2024. She finished as the runner-up at the Madrid Open and the Italian Open to Iga Swiatek, who is by far the best claycourter on the WTA Tour.
Aryna Sabalenka has been handed a generous draw as the second seed in the women's singles competition in Paris. On that note, let's take a look at Aryna Sabalenka's potential at Roland Garros this year.
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Aryna Sabalenka's likely 1st round opponent - Erika Andreeva
Aryna Sabalenka opens his campaign against Russia's Erika Andreeva, the older sister of the fast-rising Mirra Andreeva. She has won three ITF $15k titles, but at the same time, she is relatively inexperienced when it comes to playing on the main tour.
The 26-year-old has never met the 19-year-old in a competitive match. She is expected to come through the match in the terre battur unscathed.
Aryna Sabalenka's likely 2nd round opponent - Qualifier/Lucky Loser
Sabalenka will face either a qualifier or a lucky loser in the second round of the 2024 French Open. Currently, the players that have qualified for the Claycourt Major are Olga Danilović, Jule Niemeier, Julia Riera, Léolia Jeanjean, Lucija Ćirić Bagarić, Moyuka Uchijima, Zeynep Sönmez and Irene Burillo Escorihuela.
The higher-ranked players who are yet to play in the final qualifying round include Sara Errani, Hailey Baptiste and Katie Volynets. All of these players can prospectively face the Belarusian in the second round.
Aryna Sabalenka's likely 3rd round opponent - Katie Boulter/Paula Badosa/Sloane Stephens/Yulia Putintseva
The going gets a bit tougher for Sabalenka for a place in the fourth round, as she can take on a wide range of opponents - 26nd-seeded Katie Boulter, former World No. 2 Paula Badosa, 2018 French Open runner-up Sloane Stephens or Kazakhstan's Yulia Putintseva.
The second seed leads all the above players in her head-to-head meetings on the pro tour except Putintseva, who beat her at the 2019 US Open. It is safe to assume that Sabalenka will have very little trouble navigating past her possible opponents and make it to the second week in Paris.
Aryna Sabalenka's likely 4th round opponent - Madison Keys/Emma Navarro
Sabalenka will have to be near her top levels in the deep end of the Claycourt Major, with either 14th-seeded Madison Keys or 22nd-seeded Emma Navarro projected to face her for a last-eight spot.
While the World No. 2 leads Keys 3-1 in their head-to-head record, Navarro scored her lone victory in their rivalry at this year's BNP Paribas Open. She has proven her credentials on the dirt recently and thus, should get past either opponent in a comprehensive fashion.
Aryna Sabalenka's likely QF opponent - Maria Sakkari/Daria Kasatkina/Victoria Azarenka
Aryna Sabalenka will likely have her toughest moment in Paris in the quarterfinals, where she can meet top players like Maria Sakkari, Daria Kasatkina and Victoria Azarenka.
The 2023 semifinalist leads Sakkari, Kasatkina and Azarenka by respective margins of 7-3, 6-2 and 4-1 in their head-to-head meetings on the WTA Tour. Moreover, she has never lost to the above players on clay. Therefore, she will navigate past this challenge, provided she is in good physical shape.
Aryna Sabalenka's likely SF opponent - Elena Rybakina/Zheng Qinwen
If she reaches the semifinals, Sabalenka is looking at the prospect of booking matches with some interesting narratives; she can either take on Elena Rybakina, against whom she completed a from-the-behind victory in the semifinals of the Madrid Open or face Zheng Qinwen in a rematch of their 2024 Australian Open final.
The Belarusian leads both Rybakina and Zheng by a margin of 6-3 and 2-0 in their head-to-head meetings, respectively. The 2022 Wimbledon winner will likely take the World No. 2 to the distance, making for a top-quality blockbuster match.
Aryna Sabalenka's likely final opponent - Iga Swiatek/Coco Gauff
Aryna Sabalenka should already take pride in her French Open campaign if she reaches her first final here. The second seed is projected to face either World No. 1 Iga Swiatek or the reigning US Open champion Coco Gauff for a shot at the women's singles title.
Both Swiatek and Gauff lead Sabalenka in their head-to-head record against her, with margins of 8-3 and 4-3, respectively. While the 26-year-old dropped her only match on the dirt against the American at the 2021 Italian Open, the Pole has won five of their six encounters on the surface.
More recently, the World No. 2 was bested by her archrival in a riveting three-hour summit clash at the Madrid Open and a straight-set rout at the Italian Open. She doesn't have a very plausible chance of winning her maiden Roland Garros title, but she will be in for a career-best season ahead in 2024 with a good result in Paris.
