6 Clear reasons Randy Orton will surprisingly lose to Sami Zayn on WWE SmackDown tonight

The semi-final clash between SmackDown's Randy Orton and RAW's Sami Zayn in tonight's episode of the blue brand's show isn’t just a key fixture in the King of the Ring Tournament, but it may also be the turning point for multiple storylines heading into SummerSlam.

Randy Orton is a legend. He's also a Legend Killer. A closer look at the current WWE landscape, though, makes it increasingly likely that it’s Sami Zayn who'll move to the final next weekend at Night of Champions. Here are six reasons why The Apex Predator may surprisingly fall prey to The Underdog from The Underground tonight on SmackDown:

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6. Sami Zayn vs. either Cody or Jey is a more compelling dynamic

Whether Cody Rhodes or Jey Uso emerges from the other semi-final next week on RAW, Sami Zayn has a ton of history with both men. Zayn helped Uso become the man he is today: a former World Heavyweight Champion. Meanwhile, the Canadian was instrumental in Cody Rhodes finishing the story and becoming the Undisputed WWE Champion.

There are a ton of plot points that originate from all men being on various sides of The Bloodline saga, with the three men firm allies in its aftermath. Even the semi-final dynamic between Jey Uso and Cody Rhodes is captivating. Despite all men being firm fan favorites, including Randy Orton, by the way, the top four—especially Zayn, Rhodes, and Uso—create a layered and intriguing dynamic, the likes of which even the most personal and bitter feuds struggle to create. That is how strongly built WWE's main characters are.

The interest generated by these characters means WWE has no problem selling out arenas and making billion-dollar deals. Sami vs. Cody is undeniably fresh and layered. They’ve fought together but never clashed on a major stage. Sami vs. Jey, despite being friends, have trauma and a layered history from their Bloodline days. It’s a win-win for the story. Randy Orton as a finalist limits the ceiling of what the final can represent emotionally.

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5. Randy Orton vs. Cody Rhodes is likely not happening at Night of Champions

Ever since The American Nightmare's return at WrestleMania 38, perhaps the defining move of this decade, Cody Rhodes vs. Randy Orton has been seen as a must-see match. Mentor vs. Protégé. With storytelling potential, the likes of which one seldom sees, it hasn’t happened yet, though.

The King of the Ring Tournament final is simply not the stage for the first Randy Orton vs. Cody Rhodes match since the former AEW EVP has evolved into an elite main event player and arguably the face of WWE. As for the eventual feud, one of them will inevitably turn on the other down the line, perhaps with the Undisputed WWE Championship hanging in the balance.

The Viper does seem like a truly changed man, but envy and ego fly high among WWE's finest, and having had multiple failures to acquire No. 15 of late, the thirst for blood and gold could turn the 45-year-old into the menace he is capable of being soon, assuming Cody actually does regain the Undisputed WWE Championship from John Cena at SummerSlam.

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4. Randy Orton beating Sami Zayn makes the rest of the tournament predictable

Let's say WWE considers Randy Orton vs. Cody Rhodes as the direction for Night of Champions. Why? Maybe Rhodes beating him finally may tick off Orton to the point that it acts as the catalyst for him either costing his former Legacy teammate the potential match against John Cena at SummerSlam or (and this would make more sense from The Viper's perspective), he may turn on Cody sometime after the 39-year-old becomes champion. Their history and Orton's motivations have already been discussed.

Well, the problem here is that we have already made two assumptions: Rhodes beating Uso and Rhodes beating Orton. Why? If The Apex Predator wins tonight, Jey Uso beating Cody would mean The YEET Master vs. The Legend Killer in the final of the KOTR Tournament. It won't happen for the simple reason that it is the least compelling final possible. Of all the possible directions, why would Triple H book Randy Orton vs. Jey Uso when Orton/Rhodes, Sami/Uso, and Sami/Cody are right there?

As for why Cody is bound to beat Randy in the KOTR Tournament finals (should that match happen), Rhodes winning once again opens up more storytelling avenues. Most importantly, though, Randy Orton and John Cena have already had their "one last match," as advertised at Backlash. Even if WWE decides to go back on that, Orton vs Cena as a rivalry, no matter how iconic, is done.

Orton winning tonight thus makes the other semi-final and final super predictable. But if Sami wins, there’s genuine unpredictability around who wins the other semi-final and then the final, and whether Sami Zayn finally gets his moment. That's heat.

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3. A loss to Sami Zayn could push Randy Orton over the edge

Randy Orton losing to Sami Zayn would build frustration for the St. Louis native. He lost to Cena earlier this year. Depending on how he views it, he either missed out on a marquee match with Kevin Owens at WrestleMania 41 or the opportunity to annihilate the Canadian after KO turned on The Viper. The Sami Zayn/Kevin Owens connection, despite The Prizefighter turning on Zayn, too, could further enrage Orton.

He missed most of 2022–2023. He’s been on the fringe of major title feuds but hasn’t found success. Losing a massive semi-final could set the stage for a slow-burn heel turn. If there is any sort of interference or interaction with any of the many stakeholders in this complex main event scene, whether John Cena, CM Punk, Cody Rhodes, Sami Zayn, Jey Uso, or Seth Rollins, if that costs Orton tonight, it would further push him close to the edge.

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2. Saudi Arabia loves Sami Zayn & WWE knows it

The final will take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and it’s no secret that Sami Zayn is beloved there. His presence on the card is a big deal. That crowd would rally behind him like no other, and you don’t bench a player whom fans consider their own when they’re white-hot.

If Zayn isn’t in the final, the Triple H-led creative team will leave easy emotional equity on the table. Fans will eat up every second of his entrance, his comeback spots, and his near-falls. It will also be interesting to see how the crowds react to Cody or Jey when Sami Zayn stands across from them.

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1. Sami Zayn's world title arc needs this step

Zayn has been clear: he wants to become a WWE World Champion. He’s helped his friends, Cody and Jey, get there. If he beats one of them to take the penultimate step to becoming a world champion, with a potential match against either Gunther or perhaps even Seth Rollins (two of his most bitter enemies) at a stage like SummerSlam, this would be nothing short of iconic storytelling.

If either Cody or Jey beats him, it will be very interesting to see how Zayn takes it. A conflict with either of them because they hindered his ambitions when he helped them both realize theirs; with Karrion Kross in his ears and Seth Rollins seizing the power on RAW, these stories and conflicts just write themselves.

Take a moment to appreciate the layered and complex narratives that may unfold if Sami Zayn wins tonight on SmackDown. The King of the Ring Tournament victory (and the guaranteed SummerSlam world title shot) is a perfect chapter in that story.

Sami Zayn in the final adds intrigue, while Randy Orton winning here completely strips it away. It would kill the emotional rhythm of Zayn’s arc when it’s finally hitting full stride, especially with Night of Champions in Saudi Arabia. Given that Orton is unlikely to take a clean loss, expect a few of the major names in WWE who are stakeholders in this complex mathematical equation to involve themselves tonight on SmackDown.