India's chasing woes in Test cricket - A statistical analysis

Team India went down to England by 22 runs at the iconic Lord's Cricket Stadium in the third Test of the five-match series. In a thrilling contest, both teams traded punches over five days, but the hosts eventually held their nerves to take a significant 2-1 lead in the five-match series.

Chasing a target of 193, India were in a reasonable position at 41-1 in the last session of play on Day 4. However, England made a brilliant comeback to reduce the visitors to 58-4 by stumps. On Day 5, India slipped further to 82-7 and were eventually bowled out for 170 despite stubborn resistance from Ravindra Jadeja (61* off 181) and the Indian tail.

Team India's failure to chase down a total of 193 was hugely disappointing. However, it wasn't surprising considering they have suffered fourth-innings woes for a few years now.

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India's successful Test chases since the start of 2010

Since the start of 2010, India have batted in the fourth innings 54 times, winning 21 matches and losing 22, while 11 games have ended in a draw. Of their 21 wins, as many as eight triumphs have come while chasing targets of less than 100. The list features India's victories against Australia in the 2020 Boxing Day Test and against South Africa in Cape Town in January 2024.

Further, India have registered seven wins while chasing targets between 100 and 199. They chased 133 against Australia in Mohali in March 2013 in what was Shikhar Dhawan's debut Test. More recently, India chased 192 against England in Ranchi in February 2024. Dhruv Jurel (90 & 39*) starred in this contest.

Since the start of 2010, India have chased five targets between 200 and 299 in Test matches. They chased down 216 against Australia in Mohali in October 2010 and 207 against the same opponents during the same series. However, India last chased a total between 200 and 299 in August 2012, when they successfully achieved a target of 261 against New Zealand in Bengaluru.

Significantly, India have successfully chased a target over 300 only once since 2010. This was achieved against Australia at The Gabba in Brisbane in January 2021. Shubman Gill (91) and Rishabh Pant (89*) led the way as the visitors famously chased down 328, with three wickets in hand.

Target	1-99	100-199	200-299	300-plus
No of successful chases	8	7	5	1

(India’s successful chases in Test cricket since 2010)

Of India's 21 wins in Test chases starting 2010, as many as 15 have come at home and only six in away conditions. Of these six chases, two have come in Bangladesh and one in Sri Lanka. India have won chasing in the fourth innings twice in Australia and once in South Africa.

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India's losses in Test chases since the start of 2010

As mentioned earlier, India have lost 22 matches while chasing targets since the start of 2010. Of these 22 defeats, only five have come at home, while 16 have been registered in away conditions and one at a neutral venue.

In the 2018 Southampton Test against England, India were set to chase 245. They, however, crumbled to 184 all out and lost the match by 60 runs despite half-centuries from Virat Kohli (58) and Ajinkya Rahane (51). In the Birmingham Test of the same series, India could not chase down 194. They were bowled out for 161, with Kohli (51) the only batter offering some resistance.

Matches	Won	Lost	Draw
54	21	22	11

(India's overall Test record in chases since 2010)

In the New Year Test of 2018 against South Africa in Cape Town, India had a chance to register a famous win. They were set a gettable target of 205, but crumbled to 135 all out in 42.4 overs as Vernon Philander claimed 6-42. India also could not chase 176 against Sri Lanka in Galle in August 2015. They were shockingly rolled over for 112 in 49.5 overs as Rangana Herath claimed 7-48.

One of the rare instances when it seemed like Team India could pull off a chase over 300 was in the Adelaide Test in December 2014. The visitors were set a target of 364 in the first Test of the series. At one point in the chase, they were well placed at 242-2 as Murali Vijay (99) and Kohli (141) added 185 for the third wicket. India, however, were bowled out for 315 as Nathan Lyon claimed 7-152.