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18 of the top 20 men's singles players will make an appearance at the last Grand Slam of the year in New York.
Of the 128 players in the main draw, World No. 1 Novak Djokovic is defending the maximum points at Flushing Meadows this year, having won his 3rd US Open title last year.
Here's how the ranking scenarios could play out for the world's top three and a few other players after the culmination of the US Open:
#1 Novak Djokovic
The top seed leads second-placed Rafael Nadal by a whopping 3740 points entering the last Grand Slam of the year. In an extremely unlikely scenario of the Serb falling in the first round at Flushing Meadows coupled with Nadal going all the way, Djokovic stands to lose a maximum of 3270 points, which will still keep him at the top of the rankings by 470 points.
Note: Djokovic has never lost before the third round in his 13 previous appearances in New York.
#2 Rafael Nadal
The Spaniard is defending 720 points this year, after a semifinal defeat to Juan Martin del Potro in the 2018 semifinals, and leads Federer by 995 points entering the US Open. The duo is in a direct tussle for the second place in the rankings.
The ranking scenarios are as follows:
- If Federer loses before the semifinals, Nadal would remain in second place regardless of how the Spaniard fares in the tournament.
- If Federer reaches the semis, Nadal would need to reach the quarterfinals to hold on to his second place.
- If Federer reaches his 8th US Open final, he'll leapfrog Nadal in the rankings if the Spaniard loses in the semifinals.
- In a first Federer-Nadal meeting at the US Open, which cannot happen before the final this year as both players are in opposite halves of the draw, Federer would need to win his 6th US Open title to take the second spot from Nadal.
Note: Nadal's earliest exits at the US Open are a pair of second-round appearances in 2003-04.
#3 Roger Federer
As enumerated in the point above, Federer would stand a chance of overtaking Nadal at No. 2 only if the Swiss makes the last four at Flushing Meadows.
Federer would guarantee a return to No. 2 by going all the way, regardless of how Nadal fares in the tournament.
A final appearance would also suffice for the Swiss if Nadal loses in the semifinals or earlier.
In the worst-case scenario (Federer losing in the first round), the Swiss would remain No. 3 at the end of the tournament. Federer has a healthy 2050-point lead over the 4th ranked Dominic Thiem entering the US Open, and stands to lose a maximum of 1830 points if the Austrian goes all the way in New York and Federer falls in the opening round.
NOTE: Federer has not lost before the fourth round at Flushing Meadows since a third-round defeat on his tournament debut in 2000.
Other players
# Daniil Medvedev
The 5th-ranked Russian (4125 points) trails 4th-placed Thiem (4925 points) by 800 points entering Flushing Meadows.
Medvedev is defending 90 points at the US Open following his third-round appearance last year, while Thiem made the quarterfinals (lost to Nadal) - which means the Russian has an effective deficit of 530 points entering the last Grand Slam of the year.
Medvedev cannot overtake Thiem in 4th place if the former does not make the semifinals. In the best-case scenario for the Russian, Medvedev would need to reach the semis and hope that Thiem does not progress beyond the fourth round, in order to climb to a career-high World No. 4.
# Borna Coric
12th-ranked Croatian Borna Coric trails No. 10 Roberto Bautista Agut by 415 points entering the last Grand Slam of the year. Coric made the fourth-round last year while Bautista Agut had a first-round exit, which means that the Croatian would not start to gain points on the Spaniard before the quarterfinals.
In the best-case scenario for Coric, the Croatian would make his debut in the top 10 by reaching the semifinals and Bautista-Agut not progressing beyond the third round.
# Juan Martin Del Potro
Juan Martin Del Potro, last year's finalist, stands to lose the most from a non-appearance in 2019 due to injury.
The Argentinian, who is currently at No. 16, would drop out of the top 60 at the end of the US Open as he is not defending his 1200 points earned from last year.
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