Can Novak Djokovic surpass Roger Federer's Indian Wells record to become the player with most titles?

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic is set to make his return to the Indian Wells Masters for the first time since 2019.

While the 2020 edition of the tournament was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Djokovic’s refusal to get vaccinated thereafter prevented him from participating in the following editions.

In addition to holding the record for the most Grand Slam titles (24), Djokovic also shares the record for the most titles at the Indian Wells Open with his contemporary, Roger Federer, with both players having won the tournament five times each.

Following Federer's retirement in 2022 and Djokovic's consistent dominance as World No. 1, it's reasonable to speculate that the Serb could indeed surpass the Swiss player's record in California this year.

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A look into Novak Djokovic’s return to Indian Wells Masters

Expressing his excitement about returning to the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells after a five-year absence, Novak Djokovic wrote on his Instagram account on March 6:

"Last time I played on this beautiful court it was 2019. Feels like it was yesterday. Amazing to be back at #TennisParadise can’t wait for tournament to start! Let’s go #idemooo."

After skipping the Sunshine Double last year, Djokovic is defending zero points this month. However, besides pursuing $12 million in prize money and making history, he also has the chance to solidify his position as World No. 1.

On the other hand, World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz is defending his champion points in Indian Wells, while World No. 3 Jannik Sinner is defending 960 points throughout the twin tournaments.

Alcaraz and Sinner have challenged Djokovic in the past, but with Djokovic's strong position as World No. 1 and recent wins, it's clear he's eager for more success and is not backing down anytime soon.

With Roger Federer retired and Rafael Nadal & Murray nearing the twilight of their careers, the focus shifts to Alcaraz, Sinner and Daniil Medvedev as potential challengers for Djokovic.

However, when it comes to surpassing Federer's record of five Indian Wells titles, it's more about Djokovic versus the title itself rather than Djokovic versus Federer, unfortunately.

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Can Novak Djokovic surpass Roger Federer?

Setting aside our nostalgia for the era of the Big Three (or Four), there's a strong chance that Novak Djokovic could surpass Roger Federer's record at the Indian Wells Open. However, we can't completely rule out the possibility of another outcome.

According to Paul Annacone, who coached Roger Federer and Pete Sampras and now works as a commentator for Tennis Channel, feeling more pressure could make Novak Djokovic more "lethal."

"Feeling no pressure could make Djokovic even more lethal. With some people you can say relaxation can lead to complacency but not for him, not with his personality and his desire to compete," Annacone said (via The Telegraph).

"Relaxation for Novak should lead to more joy, which should mean more fun. And joy and fun with that great talent tends to equal winning," he added.

It's a situation where Djokovic winning is just as likely as him losing to Alcaraz or Sinner.

While confidence in his victory might have been higher if the two newcomers hadn't shown their skill at Wimbledon 2023 and the 2024 Australian Open, Djokovic's remarkable list of achievements proves what he is capable of.

The unpredictability adds to its beauty - the excitement of a potential Djokovic-Nadal showdown or Djokovic clinching his record-sixth Indian Wells title.

So, while the stage is set for Novak Djokovic to show his skills back in California, his quest to surpass Roger Federer's record at the tournament adds an extra layer of intrigue to an already thrilling event. However, whether the 24-time Major champion can rise to the occasion and add another feather to his cap is something that remains to be seen.