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As we find ourselves in the final week of the 2025 MLB regular season, all eyes are on the postseason bracket taking shape.
Many have already punched their tickets to the postseason, either by winning their respective divisions or via the wildcard. These include the Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees.
This leaves four playoff spots still up for grabs, with some huge organizations still fighting tooth and nail to secure qualification.
Let's take a look at the magic number for some of the teams still competing for a spot, and how FanGraphs estimates their chances of qualification.
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A team's magic number represents the combination of wins needed by that team and losses by its closest competitor to clinch a certain goal, as defined by the MLB glossary.
To calculate this number, one can use two methods. The first: 163 - (first-place team's win total + second-place team's loss total) = magic number. The second: Games remaining + 1 - (losses by second-place team - losses by first-place team) = magic number.
MLB postseason 2025: Magic number and playoff odds for Red Sox, Mets, Astros & other contenders
Boston Red Sox
After enjoying a season-defining surge either side of the All-Star break, the Red Sox were even challenging the Blue Jays and the Yankees for top spot in the AL East at one point.
Though a division title is now unlikely, qualification to the postseason for the first time since 2021 still remains firmly within their grasp. As of now, the magic number for the Red Sox to clinch a postseason spot via the wildcard is 3, adjusted against the Houston Astros. Per FanGraphs, they have a 99.5% chance of making the playoffs.
New York Mets
Having started well and even led their division for large parts of the season, the New York Mets have endured an extremely tough second half.
Much to the ire of fans, the two-time World Series champions even dropped out of the top three in the NL wildcard standings earlier this week. However, a dramatic win against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, combined with a Cincinnati Reds' loss at home to the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates, means they are back in the hot seat for now.
As of writing, the magic number for the Mets is 5, adjusted against either of the Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks, with both teams trailing the Mets by one game. FanGraphs claims they have a 67.6% of securing their passage to October from this point.
Houston Astros
Having led the AL West for virtually the entirety of the season, a late collapse by the Houston Astros now sees them fighting tooth and nail just to make it to the playoffs. At the moment, they trail the Seattle Mariners by four games in their division standings, and sit one game outside the top three in the AL wildcard.
Currently, the magic number for the Astros is 7, adjusted against either of the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians, with both teams leading the Astros by a game. Per FanGraphs, Houston have a 43.6% chance of progressing.
Other MLB teams in contention
Apart from the three aforementioned teams, there are five other MLB teams that still mathematically have a chance to make it through. These are the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Miami Marlins.
Detroit Tigers (currently tied with Cleveland Guardians atop the AL Central)
Magic Number: 4 (adjusted against the Astros)
Qualification chance: 80.5%
Cleveland Guardians (currently tied with Detroit Tigers atop the AL Central)
Magic Number: 4 (adjusted against the Astros)
Qualification chance: 80%
Cincinnati Reds
Magic Number: 7 (adjusted against the Mets)
Qualification chance: 21.2%
Arizona Diamondbacks
Magic Number: 7 (adjusted against the Mets)
Qualification chance: 10.9%
Miami Marlins
Magic Number: 10 (adjusted against the Mets)
Qualification chance: 0.2%
