Is it the end of the road for Ajinkya Rahane?

Rohit Sharma recently replaced Ajinkya Rahane as Team India's vice-captain in Tests following the latter's poor form over the last year, making him no longer an automatic pick in the playing XI.

Rahane has struggled for form since his match-winning display against Australia in Melbourne last year. He has since managed to score only 411 runs in 21 innings, averaging below 19.6 and having just two fifty-plus scores to his name.

Once touted as the most complete batter in the Indian red-ball setup, Rahane's form seems alarming in recent times. But a deeper look into his numbers will illustrate that he has not been consistent for the past five years, barring a few good knocks here and there.

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A career divided into two halves

Rahane's Career Breakdown: Pre and Post November 2016

Rahane's numbers have dramatically changed since post-2017. His career batting average has declined by nearly 19 points, and he has not scored many hundreds either. During the said period, he went from scoring a ton every six innings to managing once every 21 innings.

Several experts have suggested that his decline in performance could be attributed to his lack of confidence caused by a sword always hanging over his head. The flip side of the same could be that Rahane has only been dropped once during his eight-year career to date.

Also, upon his full recovery from his hand fracture in 2017, Rahane was straightaway inducted into the team at the expense of triple centurion Karun Nair.

Although it has been proclaimed time and again that Rahane has no technical flaws, there are signs of him developing some chinks in his armor, as VVS Laxman rightly pointed out.

In this regard, Laxman said:

"He is absolutely not decisive. If your feet stay rooted to the ground, then you are forced to play from the crease. Just take a look at the way Ajinkya Rahane was dismissed today. The main problem with Ajinkya Rahane is the initial step, something we also call the "baby step". If the baby step falls onto the toe or the heel, then your leg gets stuck. From that position, you cannot move at all. That's why Rahane often plays a full delivery on the back foot."

His tentative footwork against both seam and spin bowling has been a significant contributor to his slump. His lack of forward movement has resulted in him being caught on the back foot and getting beaten on the inside edge or poking at deliveries he should have left alone.

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Rahane: The overseas specialist?

Rahane's Stats in home and overseas conditions after November 2016

When it comes to coping with tough overseas conditions, Rahane has always been a pillar of strength for the team. During his first few years in international cricket, the stylish no.5 batter had conquered all four SENA (South Africa, England, New Zealand and Australia) countries with hundreds in three of them and gritty knocks in South Africa.

Ajinkya Rahane's Overseas Numbers in different conditions across the two periods.

Rahane averages 41.5 away from home, but those numbers are skewed a lot due to his initial outburst, which also marked his career peak. The right-hander has toured Australia and England twice over the past five years, failing to impress.

Although his overseas numbers are slightly better than his home record, they are still fairly ordinary. In relatively easy conditions, he has done well against less threatening attacks in Sri Lanka and the West Indies. However, he has not lived up to the mark in SENA countries, averaging just 27 over the last five years despite having a few knocks of substance.

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Youngsters breathing down Rahane's neck

Breaking into an Indian side with a settled batting order has always been challenging. Despite being part of the squad for several years, Hanuma Vihari and Shreyas Iyer have only had limited opportunities to prove themselves.

With their persistent performances for their first-class sides and cracks opening up in the middle order, it seems like the door is starting to break down.

First Class record: Shreyas Iyer and Hanuma Vihari

When given the chance, Vihari has shown glimpses of his defensive game. Being a middle-order batter himself, he was also called upon in Australia in 2018 to open the batting against the likes of Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood.

His last appearance for India was a marathon effort alongside Ravichandran Ashwin to save the Test despite suffering a right hamstring injury. As a result, he was also restricted from running across wickets.

Iyer, meanwhile, plays a really aggressive brand of cricket and his strike rate of 81.5 in first-class cricket is a testament to the same. He is an exceptional player against spin and is more than decent versus pace, with his only fallacy being the short ball.

Having set the stage on fire with a debut hundred and fifty against a threatening Kiwi attack in Kanpur, the team management will have a hard time selecting their No.5 batter for the South African tour.

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Time up for Rahane?

Rahane has always been an instrumental part of India's accomplishments overseas, and that has kept him in the mix. Every single time there is a sword on his head, he manages to produce a special knock to keep himself in play, whether in Lords (2013, 2021), Melbourne (2020), or Johannesburg (2018).

With runs drying up and crucial knocks fewer and farther between, it is becoming more difficult for him to hold on to his place with Hanuma Vihari and Shreyas Iyer waiting in the wings. It would be interesting to see how it turns out for Rahane in South Africa. If selected, this could well be his final chance.

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