Does the international break disrupt the momentum of in-form clubs?

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The Teams

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Arsenal in the Premier League, Real Madrid in the La Liga, Bayern in the Bundesliga and Juventus in Serie A average the most points in the two games that follow the break.

Average points by team, over two games pre and post break during last five seasons
TeamsBefore break (average 2011/12-2015/16)After break (average 2011/12-2015/16)
Arsenal4.14.4
Manchester United3.94.1
Tottenham Hotspur4.14.0
Manchester City3.54.0
Chelsea4.13.8
Liverpool2.82.6
Real Madrid4.14.9
Atletico Madrid4.54.7
Barcelona5.14.6
Bayern Munich5.15.1
Bayer Leverkeusen3.43.9
Borussia Dortmund4.23.5
Juventus3.84.9
AS Roma4.13.7

However, the biggest beneficiaries of the break are Manchester City, Real Madrid, Leverkusen and Juventus in their respective leagues – these teams outperformed after the break vs. their form in the games leading up to the break.

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The biggest gainer across all the teams under consideration for analysis is Real Madrid (0.8 points) whereas the team worst hit is Borussia Dortmund (-0.7 points).

Liverpool, Barcelona, Dortmund and Roma suffer the consequences of a fortnight’s gap the most in their respective leagues as shown below:

Biggest gainers / losers post-international break
TeamsBefore break (average 2011/12-2015/16)After break (average 2011/12-2015/16)Points gain / loss after the break
Manchester City3.54.00.5
Arsenal4.14.40.3
Manchester United3.94.10.1
Tottenham Hotspur4.14.0-0.1
Chelsea4.13.8-0.2
Liverpool2.82.6-0.2
Real Madrid4.14.90.8
Atletico Madrid4.54.70.2
Barcelona5.14.6-0.5
Bayer Leverkeusen3.43.90.5
Bayern Munich5.15.1-0.1
Borussia Dortmund4.23.5-0.7
Juventus3.84.91.1
AS Roma4.13.7-0.4

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