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Jake Paul and Nate Diaz are two names that no one would have paired together in a sentence back in 2016. Before he was 'The Problem Child', he was a Disney Channel actor and YouTube prankster. Meanwhile, the Stockton MMA cult icon was one-half of the sport's most compelling rivalry with Conor McGregor.
The two men couldn't have been more different. Yet, in 2023, they're scheduled to face each other in a boxing match come August 5. Given Nate Diaz's status as one of the biggest stars in MMA and Jake Paul's position as the face of the influencer boxing world, much is expected of the upcoming event's PPV sales.
Unfortunately, the pair's bout is unlikely to reach its estimated PPV targets. On the surface, there appears to be no compelling reason to expect the matchup to do poorly in terms of PPV sales. Thus, a more in-depth look is required.
Here's why it won't sell well:
Everyone is expecting Jake Paul to beat Nate Diaz, and neither man is as big a draw as they're made out to be
When Jake Paul faced Ben Askren, the allure behind the matchup was that he was finally facing a professional fighter who would show him the difference between boxing an NBA player and other social media influencers, and facing a former world champion MMA fighter. It sold very well at 1,500,000 PPV buys.
After 'The Problem Child' stunned the combat sports world by knocking him out, the interest in seeing him lose was heightened. So when he subsequently faced Tyron Woodley, a former UFC champion, hopes were still high and the PPV sold 500,000 buys. Their rematch, however, did a paltry 200,000 PPV buys.
Why? Because no one was interested in seeing Jake Paul defeat someone he's already beaten, someone they already know he can beat. Furthermore, fans began clamoring to see him fight a real boxer in their physical prime, not retired MMA fighters in their late 30s after years of wear and tear.
Thus, it came as no surprise that no one cared to watch him fight a then 47-year old Anderson Silva, no matter how impressive the Brazilian's previous win over Julio César Chávez Jr. was. It's why the bout sold no more than 300,000 PPV buys. Jake Paul, it seems, is not the box office draw he thinks he is.
His subsequent bout against Tommy Fury did much better, but that was largely due to the possibility of seeing 'The Problem Child' lose to someone, with whom he has a highly publicized rivalry and is an undefeated professional boxer in his physical prime: the kind of opponent fans were desperate for him to fight.
Fans wanted to both see Jake Paul lose and see what his ceiling was. So when he lost to Fury, that was it. The event sold 800,000 buys, but a boxing match with Nate Diaz might not. First, the intrigue in seeing Jake Paul lose is gone. Second, if he's to fight anyone fans care to see him fight at this point, it's KSI, due to their rivalry.
Third, Nate Diaz is not a boxer. He's a 38-year old MMA fighter, who is much smaller than Paul. Fans have already seen how a boxing match between Paul and aging MMA veterans fares. Fourth, Diaz has little punching power. Most of his knockouts come form attrition over opponents his own size with smaller gloves.
It's doubtful that Nate Diaz can knock out or even hurt someone that Tyron Woodley and Anderson Silva couldn't, both men being several orders of magnitude more powerful than him. Fifth, despite what most might think, Diaz isn't that a big draw either.
Besides his two fights with Conor McGregor, the only other PPV after his feud with the Irishman that Nate Diaz has been featured on, with disclosed PPV numbers, is UFC 263, which sold 600,000 PPV buys. This being a card that featured Nate Diaz and Israel Adesanya, one of MMA's bigger stars.
Thus, it's unlikely that featuring Diaz alone opposite of Paul will do the numbers some are expecting.
The event will happen on the same night as SummerSlam
August 5 couldn't have been a worse date for Jake Paul and Nate Diaz to have their scrap on PPV. They'll be in direct competition with the largest pro-wrestling promotion in the world. WWE is scheduled to host SummerSlam on the exact same day.
SummerSlam is widely regarded as WWE's second-largest event, surpassed only in grandeur and viewership by WrestleMania. This year's SummerSlam is set to feature Roman Reigns, who is the current Undisputed WWE Universal Champion. He is also the single biggest draw in the pro-wrestling industry today.
Even worse for Diaz and Paul, Reigns is currently taking part in the most popular and well-received storyline in the pro-wrestling world in years. While there's nothing announced about his opponent, he is expected to face Jey Uso in a title match as part of SummerSlam's headliner.
This spells trouble for the boxing match headlined by Nate Diaz and Jake Paul. Given his loss to Tommy Fury, the intrigue in watching 'The Problem Child' finally taste defeat is at an all-time low. He is not a big PPV draw, nor will he be boxing KSI or a professional boxer in their youth.
Instead, he'll be boxing Nate Diaz, an aging MMA fighter who hasn't come close to selling 1 million PPV buys without Conor McGregor's assistance, even on a card featuring reigning middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. These issues are magnified by direct competition from WWE.
Besides Roman Reigns, it's been rumored that SummerSlam will host the trilogy match between Cody Rhodes and the always popular Brock Lesnar as well. In terms of PPVs, this presents extremely stiff competition for the Jak Paul and Nate Diaz card, and will likely impact how well it does come August 5.
