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Only the 2024 Indian Premier League (IPL) stands between India's T20I players and the 2024 T20 World Cup, which will be held in the West Indies and the USA after the cash-rich franchise competition concludes.
India's recent rubber against Afghanistan, which they won 3-0, was their last T20I assignment ahead of the T20 World Cup. So they will have drawn plenty of conclusions from the same, even though the upcoming IPL season will be the primary deciding factor behind selection for the ICC event.
With no more T20Is to be played before the World Cup, now is a good time to reflect on the direction the Men in Blue are heading with respect to their squad. Team selection has been a major talking point over the last two editions of the 20-over ICC tournament, and this year will be no different.
What will India's 15-man squad for the tournament look like? In this article, we attempt to predict the route the selectors will take following the conclusion of the Afghanistan T20I series.
The certainties
Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Hardik Pandya, Jasprit Bumrah, Suryakumar Yadav.
Whether they belong in the T20I setup or not is another question altogether, but Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli seem to have the backing of the selectors. Rohit smashed a century in the third T20I against Afghanistan, and Kohli has been a consistent performer who is clearly trying to make the necessary changes to his game.
It would be criminal to leave Yashasvi Jaiswal out after the kind of impact he has made at the top of the order. The left-hander has likely been earmarked as Rohit's opening partner, although that could change following the IPL.
Hardik Pandya was captaining India's T20I side in Rohit Sharma's absence, and he is bound to make the grade once he's fit. No other player can offer what he does to the side.
Not much needs to be said about the inclusions of Suryakumar Yadav and Jasprit Bumrah, who are India's best batter and bowler respectively in the format.
There is competition, but they'll probably make it
Ravi Bishnoi, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj, Arshdeep Singh, Ishan Kishan, Jitesh Sharma, Shubman Gill, Rinku Singh, Ravindra Jadeja.
India are likely to want two specialist spinners in their squad, with conditions in the Caribbean and the United States expected to favor the slower bowlers more than the pacers. There are only two wrist-spinners in the picture right now - Kuldeep Yadav and Ravi Bishnoi - and both are quality bowlers.
If India want backups in the other departments, there is the possibility that one of the two will be relegated to the standbys. But it might be hard to leave them out after IPL 2024, where Kuldeep and Bishnoi will play a good portion of their games in Delhi and Lucknow respectively.
The Men in Blue will need at least two fast bowlers in their squad apart from Bumrah. Mohammed Siraj and Arshdeep Singh are the clear frontrunners, even though the latter hasn't been in the best of form lately. Arshdeep will offer left-arm angle and death-bowling value, while Siraj has become one of the side's premier pacers across formats.
India will also need two wicket-keepers in the squad. As things currently stand, Jitesh Sharma and Ishan Kishan seem to be at the top of the pecking order. While Sanju Samson has squandered the chances presented to him, KL Rahul hasn't been part of the T20I squad for quite a while now. Rishabh Pant, meanwhile, hasn't even made his comeback from injury yet.
This could definitely change after the IPL, but Jitesh and Kishan are seemingly ahead as of now.
Shubman Gill clearly has the backing of the team management. As the captain of the Gujarat Titans (GT), he can be expected to have another prolific IPL campaign and nail down his place in the T20 World Cup squad, even if he isn't able to crack the first-choice Indian XI.
Rinku Singh has been a revelation in the middle order ever since making his T20I debut. If India want to play four specialist bowlers in the XI, his spot might be in danger once Hardik and Suryakumar return. But the left-handed finisher, who has been simply sensational throughout, surely can't be dropped.
When it comes to the finger-spinning all-rounder, India might be able to fit only one of Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel in the squad, as was the case for the 2023 ODI World Cup. While Axar has done himself no harm with his performances, Jadeja has always pipped him to the national squad in any format.
IPL 2024 could thus prove to be a direct shoot-out between the two. While Jadeja is the better bowler, Axar seems to be regaining his mojo in that department. And the Chennai Super Kings (CSK) all-rounder, who has been struggling with the bat for a few years, is at serious risk of being upstaged.
Jadeja will play at Chepauk during IPL 2024 and will also bat at No. 6 for the Men in Yellow. The Delhi Capitals (DC) are notoriously poor at using Axar, so he might not have enough results with the bat at the end of the season to warrant being picked ahead of his senior teammate.
It would be an absolute travesty if Axar doesn't make the grade after the kind of form he's been in. But Jadeja is a world-class cricketer himself, and that's just how things work in a cut-throat environment like the Indian team sometimes.
There is competition, and they might not make it
Sanju Samson, Mohammed Shami, Washington Sundar, KL Rahul, Ruturaj Gaikwad, Shivam Dube, Mukesh Kumar, Avesh Khan, Tilak Varma, Shreyas Iyer, Rishabh Pant, Axar Patel.
Samson has continuously flattered to deceive, and only a miraculous IPL season could bring him in contention. The same goes for Rahul, who has a lot to do as Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) skipper.
Pant could be considered if he returns to action during IPL 2024 and shows no signs of having slowed down. He will need to don the gloves and be at his fittest to be considered for selection, given the long layoff he will have come off.
In the batting department, Ruturaj Gaikwad and Tilak Varma are unlikely to be picked ahead of Jaiswal, Gill and Rinku, and rightfully so. Shreyas Iyer, meanwhile, has lost his place in the T20I side, and it's doubtful whether he'll be able to do enough to warrant a comeback.
Mohammed Shami is always in the picture, but the fast bowler is recovering from an injury and isn't a complete package in T20s. There is a chance that he could pip Arshdeep to a spot in the squad, and if India want four fast bowlers for some reason, he could definitely feature.
The same can't be said about Avesh Khan and Mukesh Kumar, who haven't done much to note lately. Despite having been part of many T20I squads lately, the fast-bowling duo should be behind in the pecking order.
Axar could still be picked, but Washington Sundar might not figure. The off-spinning all-rounder's batting hasn't developed enough for him to be considered, with India's requirements being someone who can bat in the top seven.
Shivam Dube's excellent displays against Afghanistan have thrown a spanner in the works. If India can accommodate him in the squad, they will have an extra option to work with. But as things stand, the competition is just too high, and India's reliance on their incumbent players could push the all-rounder narrowly out.
The contenders who are probably out of the mix
Deepak Chahar, Shardul Thakur, Umran Malik, Rahul Tripathi, Prasidh Krishna, Yuzvendra Chahal, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Ravichandran Ashwin, Dinesh Karthik.
Not much needs to be said here. While India love their fast-bowling all-rounders, both Deepak Chahar and Shardul Thakur don't offer enough in either department and haven't been regularly involved in T20I assignments.
It's been a while since Umran Malik and Rahul Tripathi featured for India, and that might stay that way for now. Prasidh Krishna has plenty of work to do on his bowling before he can be considered for selection.
The selectors have seemingly moved on from Yuzvendra Chahal, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Ravichandran Ashwin and Dinesh Karthik. It's hard to dispute that decision, and these players might not return even if they are at the top of their game during IPL 2024.
India's predicted 15-man squad for the 2024 T20 World Cup: Rohit Sharma (c), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Suryakumar Yadav, Ravindra Jadeja, Hardik Pandya, Kuldeep Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj, Jitesh Sharma (wk), Ishan Kishan (wk), Arshdeep Singh, Rinku Singh, Ravi Bishnoi.
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