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Khamzat Chimaev and Robert Whittaker have just been announced as the headliners of UFC on ABC 6, the promotion's first card on Saudi soil. The event will take place in Riyadh, which is staking its claim as the new fight capital of the world. There, Chimaev will be strengthened by the support of his Muslim brethren.
However, what good will that do, if any, against 'The Reaper' himself? Chimaev, while still undefeated, has had a spotty run of form against every top-level foe he's faced. Against the Li Jingliangs and Kevin Hollands of the world, he looks nothing short of unstoppable. Alas, the same cannot be said of him in the top five.
After all, his bouts against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman are remembered as controversial. So, how then can he be expected to truly beat a top-three threat who once held middleweight gold?
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker on the feet
Robert Whittaker is a better striker than Khamzat Chimaev, or at least a more skilled one. However, whether he is more effective is an entirely different question. 'The Reaper' is a black belt in Gōjū-ryū karate and it shows, as his greatest weapon is his blitz.
The Australian bounces back and forth on the balls of his feet, enabling him to stutter-step into boxing combinations from mid-range. Due to his sheer speed, he can blitz into range before any opponent not named Israel Adesanya and Stephen 'Wonderboy' Thompson can react.
However, he isn't a mere speed merchant who darts in and out of range, he also employs a sneaky side kick to his foe's lead knee. This punishes anyone who tries to load any weight on their lead leg and dissuades them from sitting down on any counterpunches that could catch him on his way inside.
He used this to great effect against Yoel Romero, a lethal counter-striker. The former champion's most iconic weapons, though, are his left hook and right high kick, the former being his response to an opponent's counter. Oftentimes, he starts by baiting a counterpunch with his right cross.
If his opponent obliges, Whittaker ducks under their counter, before popping back up and blasting them on their open side with a left hook. Alternatively, he'll land hard front kicks to the body, all to persuade his foe to try parrying him. Once he gets the reaction he wants, he pounces.
He raises his leg to tease a front kick, but it's an illusion, a fake. So, as his opponent drops their hands to parry what they assume is another front kick, 'The Reaper' explodes with a left hook over the tip, the punch barreling toward his foe's exposed chin. His greatest weapon, as previously mentioned, is his right high kick.
Check out Robert Whittaker's striking:
Whittaker sets it up with his jab-right cross combination, the purpose of which is to convince his foe to slip their head to the outside of his right cross. If they're kind enough to do so, they unknowingly slip their head into the path of a rising high kick. But if his opponent reacts differently, he has other setups.
'The Reaper' will deliberately miss with his right cross, only to turn his palm inward and shove his foe's head into the kick itself. Whittaker is fast, tricky and mobile, but he doesn't often move his head off the center line and lacks power, having not finished anyone since TKO'ing Ronaldo Souza back in 2017.
The same, however, cannot be said about Chimaev, who has power in spades. Gerald Meerschaert can attest to that. While 'Borz' is naturally gifted with the ability to render his foes unconscious, he isn't a wild brawler, despite what his war with Gilbert Burns might imply.
Although he prefers to fight from orthodox, he is a skilled stance-switcher, who will shift to southpaw to destabilize any adaptations his opponent may make to his striking alignments. He also has a snappy southpaw jab, with which he dropped Burns in their bout.
Check out Khamzat Chimaev knocking out Gerald Meerschaert:
More than anything though, Chimaev fights from orthodox, where he uses his jab as a range-finding tool. In short, if his jab lands, his right hand can follow up. But the true source of his striking effectiveness is his wrestling. First, it enables him to kick without fear, as no one would dare catch his kick and take him down.
Second, his front kicks are his primary means of backing an opponent up to the fence, with their stance narrowed. This causes them to be in a suboptimal position to absorb the power of his thunderous right hook, which he throws close to his chest to give it a more linear arc like a straight instead of a traditional hook.
This enables him to split open his opponent's guard, which he appears to prioritize, as he also split the guard of Ikram Aliskerov, who he knocked out. Only, instead of a right hook, it was an uppercut. Unfortunately, like Whittaker, Chimaev does not move his head off the center line when throwing punches.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker on the mat
While Robert Whittaker is the superior striker, there is no doubt who the better wrestler and grappler is: Khamzat Chimaev. The Australian, while a skilled wrestler, is more of an anti-wrestler by trade, despite his national freestyle wrestling accomplishments.
Much like legendary lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, 'The Reaper' uses the jab as a takedown setup. He sticks his jab in his foe's face, using his hand to shove them backward, while he dips low and wraps his alternate hand behind their knee to lift their leg to his hip.
With his foe rendered one-legged, he steps through and continues shoving them to dunk them on the mat. Whittaker also has a sneaky blast double-leg takedown, often using his left hook to draw out his opponent's, only for him to duck right under as they square their hips, offering him an easy takedown.
Defensively, he is even better. He has an explosive sprawl, quickly digging for underhooks to control a wrestler's posture, and exploding his hips back. Whittaker will also, when need be, secure an overhook, turn sideward and hop out of his foe's grip while shoving their head down to his ankle.
Check out Robert Whittaker's takedown defense:
Whenever he is taken down, he is quick to initiate scrambles, and besides reigning middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis, hardly anyone has managed to take him down and pin him to the mat. Though Chimaev may very well be the most dangerous grappler he'll have ever faced.
'The Reaper' can claim to have fought a more credentialed wrestler in Yoel Romero, who is an Olympic silver medalist in freestyle wrestling, but the Cuban phenom was never that effective an MMA wrestler. Chimaev is. As is the case with many wrestlers, 'Borz' has an exceptional blast double-leg takedown.
His, however, is extremely fast, for which Kevin Holland can vouch. Even Kamaru Usman, a highly accomplished wrestler himself, can. 'Borz' has various setups, one of which involves landing a front kick to straighten his foe's posture, before immediately shooting when their feet are too narrow for them to sprawl.
Alternatively, he'll start faking the front kick to draw out a counterpunch for him to duck under with a well-timed takedown. Most of his work though, occurs in the clinch, where he pummels for underhooks and lifts his opponent off the ground, blocking their hip with his own as he slams them.
Check out Khamzat Chimaev wrestling Kamaru Usman:
On the mat, he is reminiscent of Khabib Nurmagomedov, quickly tying up the wrist and trapping his foe's arm under their own weight. He also hooks his legs around his opponent's, before raising their ankles off the mat. This prevents them from being able to threaten with submissions.
Here, Chimaev attacks with brutal ground-and-pound, while also working for submissions at his leisure.
The Verdict
There are several factors to consider. Robert Whittaker cannot afford to kick as freely as he often does, otherwise, Khamzat Chimaev could catch a kick and convert it into a takedown. Based on the Chechen's first-round domination over Kamaru Usman, there is no stopping his wrestling in round one.
The problem, however, lies in round two and onward. Whittaker does not have the best chin, and Chimaev is powerful. A first-round TKO, especially since Whittaker is often rocked or stunned in his bouts, is possible, if Chimaev lands something of significance. However, his cardio is very poor.
He gassed out against an Usman stepping in on 10 days notice. Whittaker, meanwhile, does not tire at all, and will merely have to refrain from kicking as much in the first rounds. But the likely outcome is that he'll survive round one and go on to pick Chimaev apart for either a majority or unanimous decision win.
