IPL 2018: Why franchises are likely to retain a maximum of two players before the auctions

The recently revealed player retention policy has kick-started a buzz of excitement for the Indian Premier League. Though it is still a good one-third of a year away, the banter has already begun. Most of us IPL fanatics are already aware of the retention policy and have even worked out the crop of players likely to be retained by each franchise. Unsurprisingly, the retention policy entails a considerable number of changes from the previous editions.

One particular clause of the retention policy, though very inconspicuous, has major consequences. This clause concerns the new dynamic pricing involved in salary purse cuts based on the number of players retained. This is a much-needed change that will affect how many players each franchise chooses to retain before the auction. Let us see how.

Will the Royal Challengers Bangalore retain Chris Gayle?

How it worked before:

In the prior seasons, if a franchise chose to retain five players, they'd have to pay ?12.5 crores for the first, and ?9.5, ?7.5, ?5.5 and ?4 crores respectively for the subsequent four players. This breakdown was static and didn't depend on the number of players being retained. What this meant was that if a franchise chose to retain just three players they'd have to shell out ?12.5 + ?9.5 + ?7.5 = ?29.5 crores. Retaining four players would mean they'd have to part with ?35 crores, i.e. an additional ?5.5 crores.

How it works now:

On the other hand, in the new scheme of things, a dynamic approach has been used. Franchises need to now keep these new figures in mind before retaining players:

-if a team retain 3 players, they'd have to shell out ?15 crores for the first, ?11 crores for the second and ?7 crores for the third (adding up to a grand total of ?33 crores)

-if a team retain 2 players, they'd have ?21 crores lesser in their purse, spending ?12.5 crores on the first player and ?8.5 crores on the second.

-if a team retain only 1 player, he'd cost them ?12.5 crores.

Note that these conditions apply to only capped players. Every retained uncapped player will cost ?3 crore irrespective of the number.

How does this affect player retention?

What makes dynamic pricing a game changer is that now, in order to retain three players instead of two, a franchise will have to effectively shell out an additional whopping ?12 crores (?33 - ?21 crores). It would make sense for a franchise to use pre-auction retention on a third player only if he has the potential to attract that high a bid in the auction.

For example, the Mumbai Indians have three ace Indian cricketers in the form of Rohit Sharma, Hardik Pandya and Jasprit Bumrah. Any one of them, if put into the auction, could be a part of a massive bidding war which would, in all likelihood, cross the ?12 crore mark. It makes sense for the Mumbai Indians to use up their quota of 3 pre-auction player retentions.

However, let's now consider Sunrisers Hyderabad. David Warner and Bhuvneshwar Kumar have won 2 Orange and 2 Purple Caps respectively, and it would be a sin not to retain them. Another player who has been consistent for them has been Shikhar Dhawan. It would make sense for the Sunrisers to hold on to him as well. However, shelling out ?12 crores for him might not be the wisest move. It would probably make more sense for them to put Dhawan into the auctions, and then employ their right-to-match card on him, as he is almost surely going to be sold for under ?12 crores.

Indian heavyweights Virat Kohli (left) and Rohit Sharma are most certainly going to be retained by their respective franchises

Which teams are likely to retain 3 players before the auction?

As highlighted in the previous section, the Mumbai Indians would be red hot favourites if there was a bet on which team would retain 3 players before the auction. The next two viable candidates would be the Kolkata Knight Riders (Gambhir, Narine, Russell) and the Chennai Super Kings (Dhoni, Bravo, Jadeja/Raina).

However, the Knight Riders were rumoured to have stated that they would be fine with just one retention, which puts a big question mark on what their strategy is going to be in the upcoming auctions.

Rajasthan Royals, Delhi Daredevils, Kings XI Punjab and Sunrisers Hyderabad are almost certainly going to retain only two players before the auction, and head in to the auction armed with three right-to-match cards. It'll be interesting to see what the Royal Challengers Bangalore choose to do. Virat Kohli and AB de Villiers are definitely going to be retained. They do have other exciting players in their ranks such as Chris Gayle, Yuzvendra Chahal and Kedar Jadhav. However, none of them could justify a ?12 crore tag, and it would make sense for the Royal Challengers Bangalore to use their right-to-match cards on them instead.

Does it make sense to retain uncapped players for ?3 crores?

Retaining uncapped players for ?3 crores, instead of splurging an extravagant ?12 crores on capped players could make sense, especially considering how big a role they've played in the IPL. Uncapped players are looking for recognition and put in their best efforts in the grandest stage of them all.

However, there don't seem to be many potential uncapped candidates who fit the bill for retention this year. Quality youngsters of last season like Shreyas Iyer, Mohammed Siraj, Rishabh Pant and Sandeep Sharma have all gotten the opportunity to don India's blue jersey and aren't uncapped anymore. Rahul Tripathi, Basil Thampi and Mayank Agarwal played for either the Gujarat Lions or the Rising Pune Supergiant and hence cannot be retained by any franchise.

They are all likely to come out of the auctions with big money. Krunal Pandya, who was excellent last season with both bat and ball, is definitely worth the ?3 crores. However, Mumbai Indians already have a plethora of options to choose from and it looks likely that Krunal will feature in the auctions as well.

Siddharth Kaul bowled excellently for the Sunrisers Hyderabad last year, and hence could possibly be retained along with David Warner and Bhuvneshwar Kumar.