Harshal Patel might not be the answer to India's death-bowling woes

At the recently concluded Asia Cup, India, in Harshal Patel and Jasprit Bumrah’s absence, struggled when bowling at the death. There are no two ways about it either. For much of that tournament, the narrative was around how they were missing the services of the aforementioned pair, considering they have vast experience of bowling in that phase.

Thus, when both returned to the side for the T20I series against Australia, many were intrigued to see how they would fare. In Bumrah’s case, the buzz was around how he would transform a largely stuttering bowling line-up into a world-beating unit. In Harshal’s case, it was about seeing if he could recreate his IPL 2021 magic and be the death-bowling answer that India were craving.

Bumrah did not play the 1st T20I against Australia at Mohali. Harshal, though, did. But he could not prevent India slipping to another shattering defeat – a defeat that came about after they scored more than 200 against a strong Australian bowling attack. The Royal Challengers Bangalore bowler ended up conceding 49 runs off four wicket-less overs, and bowled a 22-run 18th over, which definitively turned the tide in the visitors’ favour.

Unsurprisingly, opinions have been flying about ever since. Some have rued another indifferent death-bowling display by Bhuvneshwar. Some have talked about how India seem clueless in that stage when Bumrah is not on the field. There has also been criticism on both the planning and the execution.

Among all this, there’s another question that India need to find an answer too. Since making his T20I debut against New Zealand last year, Harshal has been a certainty whenever he has been fit. But with the T20 World Cup taking place in Australia and his fortunes dwindling, does he still remain their best death-bowling bet?

Post IPL 2021, this might not have even been a topic for discussion. He had picked up truckloads of wickets and had distinguished himself towards the end of an innings, often using his variations to keep the batters guessing. In 2022, though, he has not really scaled those heights.

Harshal Patel has not been very effective at the death in 2022

Harshal has bowled at the death 28 times in all T20s this year. He has picked up 18 wickets but has conceded 10.45 runs per over in the process. The 18 wickets have also come in 253 balls, meaning that he has accounted for a batter only once every 14.05 balls.

An element that has always been associated with him during his rise to stardom has been his ability to pick up wickets. His corresponding numbers in 2021 drive that point home, where he picked up a wicket every 7.52 deliveries and only conceded 9.56 runs per over. So, a direct comparison shows that he is taking twice as much time to pick up a wicket this year, and is also conceding one extra run per over.

On most days, he will only bowl a couple of overs at the death. If you do the math, you come to the conclusion that, as things stand, there will be several days when he will not pick up a wicket at all and leak runs at more than 10 runs per over. This, if you haven’t figured out already, is not an ideal situation to be in.

One of the major factors explaining this dip is Harshal’s reliance on his slower ball. There is nothing wrong with having that as a weapon. Dwayne Bravo, one of the greatest T20 bowlers to have ever graced the game, has made a living hoodwinking batters with an assortment of slower deliveries. The key difference, though, is that Harshal does not seem to have another type of wicket-taking ball.

Thus, in scenarios where the batters start picking his variations, he travels the distance, as it happened in the 18th over when Matthew Wade and Tim David combined to hit three sixes. The RCB bowler also has a tendency to concede too many sixes. He has conceded 28 in T20Is this year. Bumrah, for context, has given away that many throughout his T20I career.

Another common theme is Harshal struggling when the pitches don’t aid his style of bowling. At Mohali, the surface was not dry and the slower deliveries were not gripping. At Delhi earlier in the year against South Africa, he suffered similarly. Even during India’s United Kingdom tour in June and July, he was more expensive than what would have been ideal. Harshal, in fact, has shipped 11.68 runs per over in T20Is this year.

The T20 World Cup is scheduled to take place in Australia, where pitches might not grip as much. The longer boundaries might help Harshal’s slower balls but as the carnage at Mohali illustrated, batters these days are too powerful to be tied down solely by larger ground dimensions.

So, if Harshal is not necessarily the answer to India’s death-bowling woes, who is? Well, the answer is multi-layered. Bumrah, if fit, walks into this side, and when part of the eleven, he can be called upon to bowl a couple of overs in this phase. Arshdeep, who copped criticism during the Asia Cup (not for his bowling, mind you), has also been sensational at the death in 2022.

The Punjab Kings pacer has picked up 16 wickets in 211 balls at the death, getting the better of a batter every 13.18 balls. It is, akin to Harshal, a tally that means he is not necessarily getting a wicket every time he bowls at the death, considering bowling more than two overs is a rarity. But his economy rate, which stands at 7.16, is a vast upgrade on what Harshal has managed this year.

In T20Is, Arshdeep’s record is even better, giving away only 6.7 runs per over. In fact, no bowler (from Test-playing nations) has a better economy rate than him during this phase in 2022. He also strikes every 8.5 balls, indicating that he is doing everything that is being asked of him.

India, thus, could be tempted to include Arshdeep at Bhuvneshwar’s expense and have three genuine death-bowling specialists in Arshdeep, Bumrah and Harshal. That, though, would mean excluding arguably the best T20 powerplay bowler on the planet, which will also not be a favourable outcome, considering how teams target the field restrictions.

Thus, all evidence points towards Harshal not quite being the death-bowling answer India have been rummaging for. He had a splendid IPL and still has a T20I record where he averages more than a wicket per game. Recent numbers, however, don’t lie, and there is a clear pattern suggesting that people have perhaps started playing him a lot better than they did last year.

These things happen. To all bowlers. Batters get smarter, prepare better plans and access different areas to put the bowlers under pressure. With the T20 World Cup in such close proximity, though, India might not have a lot of time to experiment.

If India ignore the apparent red flags and omit someone who has actually been very impressive, they might have to endure a fate similar to the one they encountered at the Asia Cup. And that might not be very pleasant viewing, both for them and for millions of fans.