The tenth season of the Indian Premier League has entered its business end, with sides battling it out to make the playoffs. With five matches remaining in the league stages, only one team – Mumbai Indians – have secured a top four berth.
But there’s more to the playoff slots than just qualifying as there are incentives for finishing in the top two. While teams finishing first and second have two chances to make the finals, the third and fourth placed teams have to win two games in a row to book a slot in the finals.
Every team has fought tooth and nail thus far and the result is that four slots are up for grabs for as many as five teams. Let’s have a look at the best and worst possible scenarios for the five teams that include Mumbai Indians and the four other contenders.
#5 Kolkata Knight Riders
Remaining matches
Versus Mumbai Indians – Eden Gardens, Kolkata, 13th May
Best possible scenario – W, end with 18 points
Highest possible finish: Number 1
Kolkata Knight Riders and Mumbai Indians’ Net Run Rate are +0.729 and +0.810 respectively. There’s a possibility for KKR to not only beat Mumbai, but also surpass their run rate.
If KKR beat MI by a specific margin or achieve the target in the desired overs and overhaul Mumbai’s NRR, they will finish on top courtesy of a higher NRR.
If RPS, at best, win one of their remaining two matches and equal KKR’s tally of 18 points, KKR are still likely to remain number one since Pune’s NRR (-0.060) is highly unlikely to overhaul KKR’s NRR.
Worst Possible Scenario – L, end with 16 points
Lowest position KKR are likely to finish: Number 4
If Pune win one out of their two games to reach 18 points, KKR are pushed down to number three. Further, if Sunrisers beat Gujarat Lions, they reach 17 points and KKR will finish fourth in that scenario.
Kings XI Punjab can equal KKR’s tally by defeating Pune, but it’s improbable that they will overhaul KKR’s Net Run Rate. Gambhir’s side need to avoid a humongous defeat or hope that Punjab do not annihilate Pune.
However, if somehow Punjab indeed do annihilate Pune and KKR suffer a humbling of their own, the Shah Rukh Khan-owned franchise will be eliminated.
#4 Mumbai Indians
Remaining matches
Versus Kolkata Knight Riders – Eden Gardens, Kolkata, 13th May
Best Possible Scenario – W, end with 20 points
Highest position MI are likely to finish: Number 1
Mumbai Indians, garnering the most points in the league table, end at the top, irrespective of the results of the other games.
Worst Possible Scenario – L, end with 18 points
Lowest position MI are likely to finish: Number 3
If Rising Pune Supergiant win both their games, they will end with 20 points. Mumbai, meanwhile, will be stuck on 18 points allowing Pune to move above them.
If Kolkata beat Mumbai handsomely enough to breach their NRR, Mumbai and Kolkata will then be locked on 18 points, but because of having a lower NRR, Mumbai will finish below Kolkata.
#3 Rising Pune Supergiant
Remaining matches
Versus Delhi Daredevils – Feroz Shah Kotla, New Delhi, 12th May
Versus Kings XI Punjab – Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune, 14th May
Best Possible Scenario – W W, end with 20 points
Highest position RPS are likely to finish: Number 1
Provided Mumbai lose their game against Kolkata Knight Riders and Pune win their contests against Delhi and Punjab, Steven Smith and co will finish on top with 20 points.
Worst Possible Scenario – L L, end with 16 points
Lowest position RPS are likely to finish: Number 5 (elimination)
Currently placed at number 3, if Pune lose their last two games, they could face elimination. If Sunrisers Hyderabad beat Gujarat Lions and Pune lose their next game against Delhi, then Pune will have to beat Punjab in their final game to qualify.
If they don’t then all three of Pune, Hyderabad and Punjab will be locked on 16 points. The bad news for Pune will be that they have the worst net run rate amongst the three by a fair distance and will hence be knocked out.
#2 Sunrisers Hyderabad
Remaining matches
Versus Gujarat Lions – Green Park, Kanpur, 13th May
Best Scenario – W, end with 17 points
Highest position SRH are likely to finish: Number 2
Provided Kolkata Knight Riders and Rising Pune Supergiant lose their remaining games and Sunrisers beat Gujarat, then David Warner’s men will end up with 17 points, one point more than both KKR (16 points) and RPS (16 points).
Pune’s loss will also mean that Kings XI will finish with 16 points. In that case, Sunrisers will also finish above Punjab. The rained out match against Royal Challengers Bangalore may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for the Sunrisers as it gave them one point which could take them to a top two finish.
Worst Scenario – W, end with 15 points
Lowest position SRH are likely to finish: Number 5 (elimination)
If Sunrisers fail to add two points to their tally against Gujarat, then their fate will hang in the balance and depend on the result of the match between Kings XI Punjab and Rising Pune Supergiant.
The equation is simple; if Punjab manage to win against Pune, Sunrisers will be eliminated.
#1 Kings XI Punjab
Remaining matches
Versus Rising Pune Supergiant – Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune, 14th May
Best Scenario – W, end with 16 points
Highest position Kings XI are likely to finish: Number 3
Provided both RPS and SRH lose all their matches, Punjab are likely to end up in the number three position.
There’s a possibility that they could end up bagging the second slot, however, it is extremely unlikely as the gap between theirs and the top two teams’ run rate is a bit too high.
Worst Scenario - L, end with 14 points
Lowest position Kings XI are likely to finish: Number 5 (elimination)
They remain in the fifth position (their current position) and face elimination. Therefore, their game against RPS is a do or die contest for them
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