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The NFL Draft has been and gone, with a number of teams reinforcing their backfield with young and hungry runners. Today I am going to look into the best 5 prospects for fantasy football out of this rookie RB draft class.
Note: Saquon Barkley is by far and away the clear number 1 rookie RB for me. He was drafted with the number 2 overall pick and will receive a huge volume of touches throughout the season.
I have covered him in a recent article, so I am going to leave him out of this list.
You can read about it here: NFL 2018: Top 12 0.5 PPR NFL Fantasy Running Backs
#1 Derrius Guice – Round 2, Pick 59 – Washington Redskins
For a while, Guice seemed certain to be drafted as the second running back off the board, behind Saquon Barkley.
But as the Draft grew nearer, the LSU prospect garnered a lot of negative press about his attitude and apparently had some bad one on one meeting with teams after the combine.
Teams seemed to take notice, as Guice fell to the back end of the second round when the Washington Redskins finally took him with the 59th overall pick.
For Guice, Washington is an ideal landing spot. The Redskins struggled to get anything going in the running game last year with Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine trying, but failing to consistently put up good numbers on a regular basis.
The only bright spot in the backfield for the Redskins was the play of Chris Thompson. Thompson is mainly utilized on third downs and passing situations due to his small stature and electric speed.
He was productive when given the chance, until he suffered a broken leg in week 11, ruling him out for the remainder of the season. I can see Thompson retaining third-down duties as catching isn’t Guice’s forte.
Guice is a tough runner, who is more powerful than his size suggests. He has good speed and the ability to find the hole as soon as it appears. Guice will take over as the early-down back and should receive plenty of volume in 2018. I see him being in the RB2 category for Fantasy this year.
#2. Sony Michel – Round 1, Pick 31 – New England Patriots
The Patriots caused a stir when they selected Michel at the back end of the first round. It surprised most people as running back wasn’t a position of need going into the draft.
However, Bill Belichick loves having a few options in the backfield as we saw last year. He has Michel, Hill, Gillislee, White and Rex Burkead at his disposal this year.
I fully expect him to reduce the backfield to 4 this offseason with either Hill or Gillislee being cut before the season starts.
So why do I have him ranked at #2 you ask? Well, its all about draft capital. The Patriots spent a 1st round pick on Michel, so they obviously value him very highly.
You don’t spend that much capital on someone, just to stick him on the bench or be in a back-field committee. I think he’s going to be a direct replacement for Dion Lewis, who was very fantasy relevant through the second half of last season.
Michel averaged 7.9 yards per carry in 2017 for Georgia in a shared back-field, scoring 16 touchdowns in the process. He is hard to bring down and is known for his ability to break off big runs. I’m expecting good things from Michel this year.
#3. Royce Freeman – Round 3, Pick 71 – Denver Broncos
Freeman wasn’t talked about too much before the draft, but he has landed in a great spot in Denver.
The Broncos hierarchy let CJ Anderson go this offseason, despite him being their lead back last season.
That leaves Devontae Booker and De’Angelo Henderson as the remaining backs to compete with Freeman.
I expect Freeman to immediately come in and take over first and second down duties, taking over the majority of the touches that Anderson had last year.
Booker has had his chance these past couple of years but has failed to get anything going consistently.
He is a natural runner with good vision, great size, and tackle breaking ability. I expect Freeman to be a mid-range RB2 this year, who could be available fairly cheaply in redraft leagues.
#4. Ronald Jones II - Round 2, Pick 38 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RoJo landed in possibly the best spot of all the rookie backs. The USC product should go straight in as the starting running back in Tampa Bay with Charles Sims potentially coming in on passing downs.
The Buccaneers coaching team needed a replacement for Doug Martin and they don’t view Jacquizz Rodgers or Peyton Barber as adequate replacements long term.
I think Jones may have to gain a few pounds this offseason to help increase his durability in the NFL. He weighs in a 200lbs which is on the light side for starting RBs.
If he does just that, then Jones can be the workhorse in a talented offense that includes Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, OJ Howard and Cameron Brate.
He will help relieve the pressure on Jameis Winston, who struggled with his decision making at times last year. His ADP (Average Draft Position) is getting higher and higher, so fantasy owners may have to pay up to require his services.
#5. Rashad Penny - Round 1, Pick 27 – Seattle Seahawks
Probably the most shocking pick from day 1 of the draft was the Seahawks taking Penny with the 27th pick.
That’s no knock on Penny, as he has great ability, but Seattle had greater needs elsewhere on their team. Penny is likely to come in as the early-down back, with CJ Prosise taking over on third downs.
Seattle have failed to get anything going on the ground since Marshawn Lynch left the team after the 2015 season. Last year, Thomas Rawls, Mike Davis, Eddie Lacy and Chris Carson struggled behind a woeful offensive line.
Russell Wilson was the only player in the team to gain more than 500 yards on the ground. I expect the Seahawks to feature the run more this season, to try and take some of the pressure off of Wilson, who lost two of his favourite targets in Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson this offseason.
Penny has surprising speed for a bigger back, as well as great balance, soft hands and good route running. He will be a fantasy option if Seattle can fix their issues in their offensive line.
Other RBs of note:
Kerryon Johnson - Detroit Lions
He will be part of a committee with Blount, Riddick, and Abdullah, but should breakout as the lead back by the end of the season.
Nick Chubb - Cleveland Browns
He is immediately behind Carlos Hyde on rushing downs and Duke Johnson on passing plays. He will be the starting running back for the Browns, just not this season.
