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As of late, the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award has been dominated by top ten draft picks. Since 2015, four out of the six award winners were selected in the top ten of their respective draft class.
Dak Prescott, selected in the fourth round in 2016, and Alvin Kamara, selected in the third round in 2017, were the only outliers in that time frame.
Almost all the expected top candidates for this year's NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year were selected in the top ten of the 2021 NFL Draft. Trevor Lawrence, Kyle Pitts, Trey Lance, and Ja'Marr Chase are consistently mentioned as favorites to win the award.
That said, there are quite a few offensive rookies that haven't gotten the Offensive Rookie of the Year hype that they deserve. Without further ado, here are five sleeper candidates to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in the 2021 season.
5 sleeper candidates to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
#1 - Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Leading up to the 2021 NFL Draft, Rashod Bateman was overlooked by many around the NFL. Most of the wide receiver talk surrounded guys like Jaylen Waddle, Ja'Marr Chase, and DeVonta Smith. While those three deserved the high praise, Bateman deserved to be in that group as well.
Bateman simply excels at everything you want from an NFL wide receiver. He runs crisp routes, easily creates separation, and his release at the line of scrimmage is top-notch. The Baltimore Ravens getting a pro-ready wide receiver at pick 27 overall was remarkable value.
When you combine Bateman's talent with the Ravens' overall lack of wide receiver weapons it's easy to see how Bateman can win Offensive Rookie of the Year. How he builds chemistry with Lamar Jackson will be vital.
#2 - Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Most are overlooking Javonte Williams as the potential Offensive Rookie of the Year due to the competition he has in the backfield with Melvin Gordon III. While it's true his role could start out as somewhat limited, by the end of the season, the rookie is poised to take control of the starting job.
Williams is extremely elusive, he's a powerful runner, and he has the ability to be a solid pass-catching back. It's hard to imagine a running back with that type of skillset is kept off the field for too long.
Plus, with the Broncos as limited as they are at quarterback, it's likely they lean on the running game to move the ball. Thus, providing Williams with more and more opportunities to touch the ball.
#3 - Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets
It was a bit of a surprise when Elijah Moore fell to the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft. The New York Jets took full advantage though, as they made sure to select Moore with the 34th overall pick.
Moore joins a deep wide receiver room in New York that features Corey Davis, Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder. Even so, Moore's strong training camp performance thus far has raised the expectations for his upcoming season.
Moore will see a heavy percentage of the snaps at the slot position. He's a good route runner, but even more notably is his toughness. Moore is a smaller receiver, but he's more than capable of taking a big hit and holding on to a catch.
If he can continue to build on his connection with fellow rookie Zach Wilson, it's very likely we see a lot of success between the two in 2021.
#4 - Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets
A fourth-round rookie winning Offensive Rookie of the Year isn't a very likely scenario, but as we previously saw with Dak Prescott, it's still possible.
Michael Carter is a perfect fit for the modern NFL. He's incredibly quick, he can make defenders miss in the open field, and he can create separation in the passing game. The potential is there for Carter to be a three-down back.
It's also worth mentioning that Carter is likely to get a bulk of the snaps at the Jets running back position. New York lacks high-end talent at running back, thus positioning Carter to be the bell-cow back very early on in his career.
#5 - Davis Mills, QB, Houston Texans
Davis Mills isn't nearly as talented as some of the other rookies on this list, so you might be wondering why he's included as a sleeper. Simply put, he's expected to be the Houston Texans' starting quarterback. It's no secret quarterbacks win more awards than any other position, so who's to say that couldn't be Mills?
Assuming the Texans ultimately trade Deshaun Watson, the Texans would then likely give the keys to the franchise over to Mills. Mills doesn't have the greatest weapons to work with, but Brandin Cooks, Anthony Miller, and Chris Conley are a solid trio.
Houston won't win a lot of games this season, but if Mills keeps them somewhat competitive while putting up good stats, he'll be a top contender for the award. That being said, those are some pretty big ifs.
