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Adam Thielen will enter the 2023 NFL season in a completely different situation than he's ever been in. To this point, he has only played for the Minnesota Vikings, but that will change this year. He now joins the Carolina Panthers and their new-look offense this season, getting a fresh start.
The veteran wide receiver has been a solid depth option for the position in fantasy football for just about all his seasons in the NFL. While he has been incredibly consistent with the Vikings, it will be interesting to see how switching teams impacts his fantasy value.
Adam Thielen's 2023 fantasy outlook
Adam Thielen has been a model of consistency and reliability during his career with the Minnesota Vikings. While his production has dropped slightly with his age, he has still been a useful wide receiver in fantasy football. He has exceeded 65 receptions and 700 receiving yards in each of his six seasons, while eclipsing 90 receptions and 1,250 yards twice, except for an injury-shortened 2019 campaign.
The veteran has also been exceptionally healthy so far, missing more than one game in a season just twice in nine years, including six complete seasons with an appearance in every game. His consistent reliability has also translated to fantasy football success, with his surge in touchdowns making up for his dip in yards and receptions.
With Justin Jefferson's emergence as the best overall wide receiver in the NFL, as well as in fantasy football, Thielen's decreased volume in recent years with the Vikings has become apparent. But the crafty veteran found another avenue to contribute in a big way, scoring an impressive 30 touchdowns over the past three years as an established red zone threat.
Now with a new team for the first time in 2023, Adam Thielen provides the Carolina Panthers with a much-needed veteran in their young group of offensive players. He brings with him the ability to be a reliable target for contested passes with a proven record of being adaptable. This gives him upside in fantasy football on a team where he can potentially be the WR1.
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Is Adam Thielen a good pick in fantasy football this year?
Adam Thielen has an excellent opportunity to bring stability to a Carolina Panthers' wide receiver group filled with unproven options. This is likely why head coach Frank Reich brought him into their offense. This makes even more sense considering the Panthers will move forward with rookie quarterback Bryce Young as their starter.
Rookie quarterbacks often require their wide receivers to get open quickly off the line of scrimmage with strong route running, or to make difficult contested catches in defensive traffic. This comes as a result of adjusting to the speed of the NFL game. Luckily for Thielen, this has been his specialty with the Vikings. Young should be able to rely on him in the inevitable difficult passing situations.
Reich is likely well aware of Thielen's skillset as well, understanding how valuable it can be for a rookie quarterback. This is also likely why the Panthers targeted Jonathan Mingo in the 2023 NFL Draft, as he has similar skills with even more upside than Thielen. Mingo can likely become their WR1 eventually, but as a rookie, he will probably need adjustment time as well.
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Considering all of this, Adam Thielen makes an interesting fantasy football pick in 2023. He has a real chance to see a high volume of targets, especially early in the season.
Where should you draft Adam Thielen this year?
Adam Thielen currently ranks as the WR50 and 131st overall player in upcoming 2023 fantasy football drafts, according to his recent ADP. This means he profiles as a high-end depth wide receiver who can be a WR4 or WR5 on most fantasy rosters. For managers looking to target the consistently reliable veteran, they should be looking to select him after the 10th round, where his ADP commands his draft value.
Thielen is currently being selected around the same time as other veteran wide receivers such as Tyler Boyd and Jakobi Meyers. Neither of them has any realistic shot at leading their team in passing targets, unless there are major injuries to other players. Thielen does have a legitimate chance of being the Panthers' WR1 this year, which gives him more upside than either of them.
Other wide receivers who do have much more upside than Thielen in the same range of ADP include Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Jameson Williams. They also all have lower floors than the veteran with proven consistency. Moore and Toney play in an offense with an unestablished prioritization of targets, with the former completely unproven and the latter a major injury risk. While Williams has massive upside, his floor is also dangerously low with his inability to get on the field so far during his career.
All things considered, Adam Thielen makes for a solid pick at his current ADP. While his ceiling may be a bit low, that's generally acceptable in the mid-to-late rounds, especially considering his floor is higher than many in the same range.
