Biggest reaches from the 2023 NFL Draft

Now that the 2023 NFL Draft is in the books, I decided to outline some of my least favorite value selections throughout the weekend.

I will judge the names selected based on my personal rankings in correlation with consensus boards and looking at who was still available or how these picks fit into the overall picture of the draft.

Of course, there can’t only be positives and this isn’t at all me saying these are bad players, but I just believe there were better options available at those points, maybe they tried to lock up some position early or didn’t play the board the right way in my opinion.

Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State – 16th overall to the Commanders

Forbes is the first name who falls into the category of better players available at the position. We’ve seen defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio adapt more match-zone principles compared to traditional shell coverages.

So considering that, I think getting somebody like a Christian Gonzalez from Oregon – who went to New England a pick later – or Deonte Banks from Maryland – now with their divisional rivals in the Giants at 24th overall – still made plenty of sense.

If you’re looking for a guy like Forbes, capable of playing off in order to click-and-close on routes maybe more as a field-side option, I would have much rather taken Michigan D.J. Turner, who went 60th overall and I had basically the same grade.

Gervon Dexter, IDL, Florida – 53rd overall to the Bears

I don’t want to be mean here and I get that I’m way lower on Dexter than consensus, who was looked at as a third-rounder. With that being said, this was the most uninspiring player I’ve watched this entire draft cycle.

I won’t bang him too much for consistently being late off the snap, because he might have been taught to do so on early downs at least, because by far what he does best is staying square to blockers with that uncanny anchor and then wrapping up the ball-carrier trying to slice by him.

However, even though he’s not nearly urgent enough to work off blocks and regularly gets caught on the wrong side of those, other than when he’s flat-out running after the ball, that athleticism testing never seems to show up, he shows no real plan as a pass-rusher and constantly just ran straight into guys.

Maybe you can convince them to take a gamble on Dexter with a comp pick at the end of the third round. But just outside the top 50? – No freaking way.

Rashee Rice, WR, SMU – 55th overall to the Chiefs

My problem with this selection for Kansas City is twofold – the player they targeted here compared to where I thought his value was and the extra capital used to move up for him. The Chiefs gave up picks 122 and 249 in exchange for 194, so they could come up eight spots with the Lions and draft Rice.

I understand the player profile they were looking for with him, as a power slot who can win in contested situations similar to what they had last year in Juju Smith-Schuster. However, I would have straight-up preferred Iowa State’s Xavier Hutchinson or Penn State’s Parker Washington, who both ended up going all the way in the sixth round.

Rice lacks the quick-twitch and technical nuances to defeat the press at this point – which really stood out during Senior Bowl week – and his size/speed profile is fairly modest.

KC’s original second-round pick turned into Oklahoma’s Marvin Mims, who would have been a much more fun weapon in that offense and when they traded up, I actually expected it to be for Tennessee’s speed demon Jalin Hyatt.

You combine that with the fact the fourth-rounder they gave up turned into a guard from UCLA in Jon Gaines with an elite athletic profile and they then went with the less promising Texas D-tackle in Keondre Coburn over Moro Ojomo – who was picked 249th instead – although I guess the former replenishes some depth as a stumpy space-eating nose-tackle – I just feel like they lost value when making that move for a player I had more as an early Day 3 guy.

Juice Scruggs, IOL, Penn State – 62nd overall to Texans

I really like Scruggs – and I hate having to put his name here. He was one of my favorite Day 3 interior O-linemen putting together my rankings and I thought he had a chance to either turn himself into a starter or become a high-quality sixth man.

Yet, not even the biggest Juice fans probably ever imagined he would go at the end of the second round. He’s just not a plus athlete at the position and whether it’s his ability to center blocks consistently or heavily rely on two-handed strikes in protection, NFL defensive linemen could give him some issues creating quick wins.

More importantly than the player – who I do like still – they gave up a sixth and a seventh-rounder in order to move up just three spots and secure their guy. I highly doubt the Broncos, who just invested big money into the O-line, the Bears, who already passed on Scruggs with both their second-rounders, or the Eagles themselves, who just drafted a center in Round 2 last year as a replacement plan for Jason Kelce, would have sniped him away.

Instead, Philly took Alabama’s Tyler Steen with the Houston pick – my OT8 with guard flexibility – and the two other selections they gave up turned into Stanford QB Tanner McKee – about an even version of who they picked in the third round two years ago in Davis Mills – and Ole Miss guard Nik Broeker, who I don’t know if he could play center, but I actually had one spot ahead of Scruggs in my IOL rankings – and that was in the seventh round!

Kendre Miller, RB, TCU – 71st overall to the Saints & Tank Bigsby, RB, Auburn – 88th overall to the Jaguars

I don’t want to sound like a running back hater here at all, because it’s one of my favorite positions to evaluate and I think finding cheap options on Day 2, in particular, is actually a great approach to finding answers.

For me, it’s much more about the names that did get picked here in the early-to-mid Round 3 that I don’t love. Both Miller and Bigsby were names who “just missed the cut” of my top-ten running backs available, yet they ended up being the fourth and seventh selected respectively.

While I do like Miller’s contact balance and ability to avoid traffic, he does tend to stop his feet a little bit too much and lacks great burst through the hole.

Meanwhile, Bigsby does have legit break-away speed and can build up a lot of power, but in terms of the intricacies to bleed out run schemes and string together moves in the open field, I was kind of underwhelmed by the actual film.

So to make these guys such priorities, when there was only one other running back selected between picks 88 and 143, with several quality options ultimately available in the fifth round, I think it shows a lack of understanding of what the board could look like and they had three and two picks respectively among that stretch I just mentioned.

D.J. Johnson, EDGE, Oregon – 80th overall to the Panthers

An example of a prospect who I believe was overdrafted, heavily based on the athletic profile instead of the tape, Johnson certainly qualifies as such a name for me. He was in the early 20s among edge defenders based on consensus boards and I personally had him in the late 20s.

Well, he ended up being the 17th off the board in Round 3– which doesn’t sound crazy – but it felt like they sort of panicked due to the run they saw in that position up to that point and Carolina saying they’ll just get a great athlete at that spot, before they run out.

Yet, there were several guys I would have preferred available on Day 3, because while you like the heavy hands and speed up the field, Johnson gets hung with blockers too much and shows very little of a pass-rush arsenal he can access.

So considering that, them exchanging picks 93 and 123 for this selection, when they already paid a steep price to go up for Bryce Young first overall, now you lose one of your six picks left.

Furthermore, the two guys that were chosen at those spots you previously owned are the massive Georgia tight-end Darnell Washington, who might’ve been a first-rounder without the concerns about his knee, and Wisconsin hybrid outside linebacker Nick Herbig, who I would have straight preferred over Johnson by a significant margin.

Brodric Martin, IDL, Western Kentucky – 96th overall to the Lions

This is one I’ve referenced a couple of times during the “winners” and “losers” segment each because it was just so egregious. The more head-scratching part for me was the exaggerated confidence in their own evaluations and what they gave up here in picks 122, 139 and 168, in order to just get back into Day 2 and secure this selection.

Some people might say that it’s Day 3 picks and if they think this guy is a difference-maker, it’s worth it, but not only do I disagree with where they value the player, but with the picks they gave up, at least two of the three should stick on the roster.

Let’s not even get into the individual prospects in UCLA guard Jon Gaines II, Houston QB Clayton Tune and Auburn linebacker Owen Pappoe – who all were higher on my personal board – but just the sheer volume of two extra stabs at talent at a similar range is pretty outrageous to me.

Tre Tucker, WR, Cincinnati – 100th overall to the Raiders

This is a fun-sized receiver who I expected to be drafted and has a chance to hang around as a role player for a while in the NFL. Tucker was projected to go around Pick 200 and that felt about right for him, if not slightly later for me personally, due to the sheer volume of pass-catchers in this class.

So for him to just become a top-100 pick and for the Raiders to make it a priority they secure him on Day 2, when they had a couple of fourth-rounders and five selections overall on Day 3, is just too rich for me.

Looking at Tucker’s 1.48 ten-yard split, he has elite acceleration but also can stop abruptly and challenge defenders with the way he comes out of his breaks. Unfortunately, he also has absurdly short arms at just under 29 inches and tiny hands, while having dropped just over ten percent of his catchable targets last season. To me, he’s more a gadget player, who can jump in for Hunter Renfrow as an option-route guy eventually, but I think that’s a fairly replaceable skill-set that you can find later on day three.

Chad Ryland, K, Maryland – 112th overall to the Patriots

I could have easily gone with the first kicker that was actually picked – Michigan’s Jake Moody going 99th overall to the 49ers – but Moody’s field goal success rate was at least 2.3% higher and he made a bunch of big kicks in meaningful games – and the Niners didn’t give up a sixth-rounder to move up eight spots up, like the Pats did.

I’m not going to act like I’m a big-time evaluator of specialists, but based on consensus boards, there was about a 50-50 chance that Ryland would even get drafted at all – and he went with the tenth pick of Day 3. The Patriots made nine(!) selections on Day 3 and could have easily gone with a kicker a little later, considering how minuscule the difference in success rate is for that positioning translating to the next level – which sounds kind of funny, considering they’re still kicking the same way.

In fact, of the top-20 guys in all-time field goal percentage, only two went in the fourth round or earlier – although to be fair, one of them was Stephen Gostkowski, who had a great career in New England. Of course, they also picked a punter in the sixth.

Sean Clifford, QB, Penn State – 149th overall to the Packers

Finally, I hate to jump on the band-wagon here even more so, because I’m sure there are things about the kid the Packers just fell in love with and if they maybe grab him with one of their four(!) seventh-rounders, I don’t really care.

However, to think “Sean Clifford was a top-150 pick” is absolutely bonkers to me. Literally, every single person covering football that I respect was shocked/confused/laughing when this came across the timeline.

This certainly has something to do with how many teams spent a mid-round pick on a quarterback this year – as I mentioned with the record-setting 12 QBs across the first five rounds – but even then, I just can’t give Green Bay a pass here.

Clifford has some desirable qualities for the position, in terms of a strong arm to test tight windows, some good throws on the run and the toughness he’s showcased at Penn State. With that being said, his accuracy, timing and decision-making can be absolutely wild.

He was outside my top-20 names at the position and he was the 11th off the board, ahead of guys like BYU’s Jaren Hall and Stanford’s Tanner McKee, who were considered to have a chance to slip into late Day 2. Don’t take just my word for it – Lance Zierlein, who does all the draft profiles for NFL.com, evaluated 500 total prospects – Clifford literally finished 499th among them.

Other reaches:

Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State – 15th overall to the Jets

Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss – 39th overall to the Panthers

Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame – 40th overall to the Saints

Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State – 42nd overall to the Packers

Brenton Strange, TE, Penn State – 61st overall to the Jaguars

Jake Moody, K, Michigan – 99th overall to the 49ers

Jake Andrews, IOL, Troy – 107th overall to the Patriots

Tavius Robinson, EDGE, Ole Miss – 124th overall to the Ravens

Derius Davis, WR, TCU – 125th overall to the Chargers

Colby Sorsdal, OT, William & Mary – 152nd overall to the Lions

If you enjoyed this breakdown, please consider checking out the original piece and feel free to check out all my other video content here!

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