Biggest remaining needs for each AFC team heading the 2023 NFL season

Buffalo Bills, AFC East – Reliable number-two receiver

They may be relying on up to three rookie starters this year, but I’d say what has held them back in crucial playoff moments is not having that second guy who can win in the passing game.

I outlined Gabe Davis as a breakout candidate last offseason, because a lot of the underlying metrics suggested his growth over the second half of the year was a sign of things to come and I envisioned a more multi-faceted role for him. In particular as a power slot, where his blocking skills and ability to work the middle of the field could really shine.

AFC Wild Card Playoffs - Miami Dolphins v Buffalo Bills

However, he actually only spent 10.2% of snaps lined up on the inside in 2022 and was largely a clear-out guy, who they’d basically send on wind-sprints on the perimeter for large stretches of games. Plus, he didn’t always come through when needed either, dropping nine of 57 catchable targets.

They did sign free agent Deonte Harty, who quietly put up 570 receiving yards with the Saints in 2021, before missing almost all of last season with turf toe. And I was a big fan of last year’s fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir at Boise State, who showed some real signs late in the season, once they started phasing out Isaiah McKenzie. There were some impressive moments of body control and toughness through contact, but he also had a couple of bad drops, even though I expect him to be their starting slot in three-wide receiver sets.

You’d just like Buffalo to find another guy they can rely upon to win his matchups with consistency and be a potential high-volume target if defensive coordinators give extra attention to Stefon Diggs. Right now, I’d feel best about first-round tight-end Dalton Kincaid (Utah) being that guy, but I was thinking more in the mold of somebody who forces opponents to stay honest with not being able to leave a secondary outside receiver singled up.

Miami Dolphins, AFC East – Right tackle

The Fins are in the process of going all-out during this window where they still have quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on his rookie deal. With the additions of Bradley Chubb, Jalen Ramsey and David Long Jr. since November, combined with a drastic schematic shift with Vic Fangio taking over play-calling duties on defense, that unit has a chance to be one of the best in the league.

Meanwhile, Mike McDaniel’s attack was top-five in EPA per play with a healthy Tua and by adding Texas A&M running back Devon Achane in the third round, this is undoubtedly the fastest collection of skill-position players this game has ever seen.

On paper, tight-end is a position that leaves things to be desired, but understanding how they use Alec Ingold as a move-blocker who often starts in-line, even though he’s tagged as a fullback, that’s the reason a player like Mike Gesicki simply didn’t have a role in the system.

Where I do believe they’re hoping for better collective play is the offensive line, which thanks to the heavy focus on RPOs and play-action that looked very similar was protected to a large extent, but the individual pieces are underwhelming. A healthy Terron Armstead is by far the best of the bunch, with Connor Williams at center and Robert Hunt at least being average starters.

Left guard is certainly in question, where I’m assuming either third-year player Liam Eichenberg settles in after a couple of pretty rough seasons, being asked to fill in at three different spots, or they move recently signed Isaiah Wynn there. The latter spent 83% of his snaps in New England during his rookie deal at left tackle, with a little bit of run one spot over and then having by far his worst year in 2022 when asked to step in at right tackle.

Liam Eichenberg #74 of the Miami Dolphins looks on during a preseason game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

He could be in competition for that job yet again in Miami, but right now it appears Austin Jackson is the preferred option, who had three catastrophic seasons so far since being drafted in the first round of 2020, with just two total games with a PFF grade of at least 70.

New England Patriots, AFC East – Separation-type outside receiver

If you browse through the Pats draft class, having Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez fall to them at 17th overall allows them to move down everybody else on that depth chart and gives them a legit boundary corner to complement those shorter guys with great click-and-close ability.

Beyond that, obviously selecting two new starting kicking specialists and spending three early day three picks on the offensive line to replenish the depth up front stand out as Patriots-typical moves, along with a couple of sixth-round receivers. However, while I like a bunch of the guys they did end up bringing in, the lack of investment in that last position is what had me scratching my head a little bit.

Transitioning to the current WR depth chart, DeVante Parker is as close to a pure “ball-winner” as we have in the NFL today probably, Juju Smith-Schuster is who they wanted to replace Jakobi Meyers with, in order to lean even more into the skill set of a power slot and we know one of their five or six receiver spots on the active roster goes to special teams captain Matthew Slater.

Kendrick Bourne #84 of the New England Patriots and DeVante Parker #1 of the New England Patriots celebrate a Parker TD

Kendrick Bourne is as close as you’re going to get in the mold of an early separator, looking at how productive he was for stretches in San Francisco as a Kyle Shanahan-style of X receiver, but there’s a reason they inevitably wanted to upgrade to Brandon Aiyuk, to give themselves more of a YAC threat.

So it’ll be up to how much growth a healthy Tyquan Thornton can show in his second season as a former round-two selection and if they can get anything from those two sixth-rounders this year in Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas.

They actually lost their top separator according to Next Gen Stats, among WRs with an average depth of target above ten yards per, in Nelson Agholor (3.3 yards average). Meanwhile, DeVante Parker actually finished dead-last in their databank in that metric (1.7), which lists everybody with 45+ targets.

New York Jets, AFC East – Backup linebacker

What matters most for Gang Green this upcoming season is how dramatic of an upgrade they might get in terms of quarterback play, as they made the big trade for Aaron Rodgers shortly before the draft.

The offense was at least competent last season until they lost two rising stars at guard and running back with Alijah Vera-Tucker and Breece Hall. Ultimately, Garrett Wilson was still able to win Offensive Rookie of the Year despite highly inconsistent quarterback play.

So with Rodgers bringing a couple more pieces with him, the offense should go to another level, in order to complement what was a top-six defense in DVOA and EPA per play this past season.

Depending on what MRIs show on Chuck Clark’s knee, it should at worst be a lateral move to him or the subsequently signed Adrian Amos in place of Lamarcus Joyner, they are bringing back the rest of the starting eleven and added Will McDonald IV out of Iowa State to boost their edge pass-rush.

Adrian Amos #31 of the Green Bay Packers tackles Dawson Knox

The one widely-known name missing is Kwon Alexander, who played just under half of the defensive snaps in their three-LB rotation. With him gone, they’ve got lots of big safety or dime backer types beyond the starting duo of C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams. You’re looking at Jamien Sherwood and Hamsah Nasirildeen as similar player profiles in that mold, who have combined for slightly over 200 snaps across their first two seasons.

Chazz Surratt is a former quarterback convert at UNC, whose ability to make plays in coverage is far superior to making any reads between the tackles, plus then Zaire Barnes was a guy they picked in the sixth round largely based on his athletic testing to project as an impact special teamer.

I believe they have some solutions on passing downs, but if either of the two starters goes down, I’m concerned with their run defense and how that’ll affect everything else.