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Early-round picks are important for fantasy football success, but leagues are won in the late rounds.
With the 2020 NFL and fantasy football seasons coming to a close, value picks and sleepers for the 2021 season are beginning to emerge.
5. Joe Mixon (RB, Cincinnati Bengals)
Running behind the league's worst offensive line, Joe Mixon was still drafted as the ninth running back and 10th overall player heading into 2020. Struggling with injuries and poor production, Mixon has rushed for 428 yards in just six games in 2020. His yards-per-carry has dropped from 4.1 to 3.6 this year, but his yards per game has stayed consistent at around 71.
After consecutive 1,100 yard rushing seasons, Mixon will provide value for fantasy football owners in 2021, hoping to catch him on a rebound. If the Bengals prioritize offensive line in the draft (as they have in recent years) and free agency, Mixon and QB Joe Burrow could see more success.
4. Brandon Aiyuk (WR, San Francisco 49ers)
With no Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and no George Kittle at tight end to pull double teams from the defense, a San Francisco wide receiver would be hard pressed to break out in 2020.
Brandon Aiyuk, however, is showing all the signs that he is a true No. 1 receiver on the field and in fantasy football. The rookie Aiyuk has gained almost 550 receiving yards in 8 starts in 2020, but his intrigue has shown in recent weeks. Since Week 7, Aiyuk has brought in over 75 yards in every game, and broken 90 three times. Three of his four 2020 touchdowns have come in his last four games he is receiving more passing targets than any other 49ers receiver of late.
If Aiyuk is able to perform without Nick Mullens at QB next year (it would be reasonable to expect so) he should be a perfect late-round sleeper WR option to fill out a flex or bench spot.
Also check out: Complete 2017 NFL Draft Results
3. Second-year running backs
Combing four-plus sleepers into one category may be cheating, but the Ravens' J.K. Dobbins, Colts' Jonathan Taylor, Lions' De'Andre Swift, and Washington running back Antonio Gibson will be highly sought after running back options for next season. While some of the names, especially Gibson who has been a top fantasy option for most of 2020, are hardly sleepers, they all project to see increased carries and playing time in 2021.
J.K. Dobbins, who has missed a game with COVID-19 and sat behind Mark Ingram for much of 2020, will provide specifically good value for GMs looking to fill a RB2 slot with a potential elite option who is a feature in his team's offense.
Taylor, who has split carries with Nyheim Hines in 2020, has proved especially effective in the passing game and should be a target for anyone in a PPR or half-PPR league next season.
Also check out: Complete 2018 NFL Draft Results
2. Courtland Sutton (WR, Denver Broncos)
Broncos No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton came into 2020 as the 65th player drafted in most standard fantasy draft formats. Catching just three passes for 66 yards in one game (against the league's No. 1 ranked Steeler defense) Sutton suffered a near injury that was lattered confirmed as a season-ending torn ACL.
While Drew Lock has not shown he is the answer at quarterback, Sutton has proven he can perform without an elite pass thrower before. Sutton nabbed 72 catches for 1112 yards and six touchdowns in 2019, and, assuming a clean recovery from his injury, should be penciled in for similar results in 2021. Though the Broncos added WR Jerry Jeudy in the 2020 draft, he has not proven to be an elite WR1 option (yet), catching only 600 yards in 10 starts this season.
If the Broncos move on from Lock and address QB with a significant upgrade, Sutton should slide even higher up sleeper target lists and draft boards.
1. Denzel Mims (WR, New York Jets)
Alongside left tackle Meckhi Becton, Denzel Mims has been one of the few bright spots for a Jets team hurtling towards a winless season. Despite dealing with multiple injuries, Mims has nabbed 19 receptions for over 300 yards in just five starts. Mims has shown the athleticism and talent to stick as a No. 1 WR in the NFL and has all the signs of a 2021 sleeper/breakout candidate.
The one positive for Mims being on an abysmal team (aside from retaining his status as a deep sleeper) is the quarterback getting him the ball is all but certainly going to be a new face in 2021. Jets fans have embraced the tank for Trevor Lawrence, and no Jet will benefit more than Mims if the Heisman favorite lands in New York.
Also check out: Complete 2019 NFL Draft Results
