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‘Hot Take:
Noun
A piece of commentary, typically produced quickly in response to a recent event, whose primary purpose is to attract attention.’
It’s a hot take season in the world of NFL journalism. Everyone has an opinion on each team. Some are good, some are bad, some are right, and some are wrong.
Here, I take a look at each team and talk about a prediction I think may come to fruition. Many will disagree with me, some will agree. Have a read about these 4 teams and come to your own conclusion.
#1 Atlanta Falcons
Now hear me out before you come at me with ‘Ryan was garbage last year’ and ‘Sarkisian can’t call a good play to save his life’.
I know last year was a huge comedown from the stratospheric highs of his 2016 season, where he took home the league MVP award. Kyle Shanahan, who called the plays during their run to the SuperBowl has since moved on to pastures new and has been replaced by Steve Sarkisian.
Sarkisian struggled to get the offence firing on all cylinders last season, with questionable play calls and some poor play resulting in the Falcons recording 800 fewer offensive yards and 27 fewer TDs.
This season, Ryan has a new toy in rookie Wide Receiver Calvin Ridley. He will play outside, opposite elite WR Julio Jones, who has to be down to score a lot more touchdowns than the meagre three he achieved last season.
Those two will be accompanied by Mohammed Sanu as well as Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman from the backfield. With another year working together, I see this offence progressing back to being one of the most feared in the NFL.
#2 Carolina Panthers
Everyone was super high on Christian McCaffrey when the Panthers let go of Jonathan Stewart at the beginning of the offseason. That was until they signed CJ Anderson who was released by the Denver Broncos.
Obviously, McCaffrey is still a huge asset and has massive value in half and full PPR. But the 300+ carries that we all clamoured for isn’t going to happen now with Anderson on the team. Stewart had 198 carries for the Panthers last year alongside CMC. He only managed 680 yards at a laboured 3.4 yards per carry.
Compare that to CJ Anderson who had 245 carries for 1007 yards at 4.1 YPC. Anderson is a much better back who is younger, quicker and has a lot less mileage on the tyres. I think Anderson will immediately come in and be the first and second down back, leaving CMC as the pass-catching back.
I think he makes the role his own and impresses, possibly reaching his previous YPC totals of 5.4 and 4.7. If he can log around 220 carries, at an average of 4.6 YPC, then he will tally over 1000 yards.
Obviously he has a lot more competition with CMC being there and his QB, Cam Newton, running the ball, but I still think it’s a possibility that he clears 1000 yards on the ground this year. If so, he will be a steal for fantasy owners at his current 8.08 ADP.
#3 New Orleans Saints
Ok, so this might not be the hottest of takes, but it has to be said. Brees had a quietly successful season under center last year for the Saints.
The team rolled with a run-first approach using Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram as a deadly one-two punch. This relieved some of the pressure on the 39-year-old Brees. He had 536 attempts, which is his lowest in a 16 game season since he joined the Saints in 2006. It was also his lowest YPG (Yards Per Game) total over the same time period.
He did, however, complete 72% of his passes, which marked a career high. This year teams will be more prepared for Kamara and the run game.
There will likely be more stacked boxes meaning receivers will be able to get open more easily. I can see Brees throwing for more than the 23 TDs he threw in 2017 as he usually throws at least 10 more TDs than that total.
If he threw 32 TDs instead, the extra fantasy points he would have gained would move him up to No. 3, from the No. 9 spot. I think this is a realistic expectation for Brees going in to 2018. The Saints will be a serious Playoff contender, that is pretty much guaranteed.
#4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans is a superb NFL Wide Receiver. He is a physical specimen who can go up and get the ball. He is the favourite target for his QB Jameis Winston, but his 71 receptions in 2017 were the lowest since his rookie season. This is a huge 26% drop on his 2016 season where he tallied 96 receptions.
This isn’t down to Evans play, but more the fact that the Bucs are struggling as a team now. He could bounce back and put up big numbers again if Winston can play to the standard most are expecting from him. However, I don’t think Winston will take that next step and his WRs will, therefore, fail to put up big numbers. Also, Ronald Jones was drafted this offseason to add a stronger running game.
Will this team move to a more run-heavy approach? It's possible. The Bucs also like sophomore player Chris Godwin, who is likely to play more snaps as the season goes on. He could steal a few targets away from Evans if he impresses from the slot.
Tampa Bay also has two good Tight Ends in Cameron Brate and OJ Howard, both of who are big RedZone targets.
Another reason I think he could finish outside of the Top 12 WRs is that of the suspension to Jameis Winston.
Winston is banned for the first three games of the season, leaving Ryan Fitzpatrick as the QB to start the season.
Even though Fitzmagic is one of the more capable backups in the league, Evans’ output has to take a hit over those first three games. With so many big names and quality WRs in this league, I can see Evans disappointing his fantasy owners, considering the draft capital you have to give up to acquire him.
