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The first week is in the books and emotions are running high. The dopamine was spurting through your hair follicles just a week or two ago. It was your post-draft high; you thought you had drafted the best possible team in your league! This was a certain championship for you!
One game in, things may not have gone the way you predicted. Don't let these knee-jerk reactions dictate how you manage your fantasy team moving forward. Stay logical and do not overreact. That being said, plenty of other people in your league are probably overreacting right now. Stay patient and be logical.
People get so amped up for the first week that they do in fact, overreact to poor performances from players they invested a lot of draft capital in. So after watching the games and scouring the box scores, here are the top five buy-low candidates.
#5 Damien Williams
Williams owners have had a rocky road to the start of the season. First they had to deal with Andy Reid announcing the team would be a committee between the three running backs on the roster at that time. Those running backs included Damien Williams, Carlos Hyde, and rookie Darwin Thompson. This led to rampant speculation that Hyde could take the job or that Darwin Thompson could be the next big thing in Andy Reid's potent offense.
Williams' draft value plummeted. On top of all that, they signed former superstar LeSean McCoy right before the season started.
Why buy Damien Williams?
With all of the questions marks surrounding him entering the season, and the big McCoy now in town, things aren't looking good. Fantasy owners are looking for answers after week one, and they are willing to rush to conclusions.
They may be seeing split carries with McCoy and little production outside of the touchdown. What I'm seeing is 13 carries and six catches on the most explosive offense in the NFL. Even if Williams is splitting carries with McCoy for the rest of the season, he's a trusted pass catcher for Patrick Mahomes, and 10-15 touches in that offense is exactly what you signed up for when you drafted Williams.
#4 Devonta Freeman
Devonta Freeman's final numbers were underwhelming in the Vikings-Falcons clash. It was supposed to be his glorious return from missing almost the entire season in 2018. He posted eight carries for 19 yards and a fumble. It wasn't pretty. Not to mention (I'm going to mention it anyway) Ito Smith, the backup, received six carries.
Freeman is a guy that used to routinely go in the first round of fantasy drafts. The Falcons are still an explosive offense. They have a coordinator committed to using him. Ito Smith is no more of a concern than Tevin Coleman was. He isn't going to cut into Freeman's carries, because those carries weren't Freeman's anyway.
The Vikings stuffed the run early and the Falcons fell behind. They were forced to play catch up, and as we see happen every week, a team had to abandon the run due to the natural flow of the game.
Same old Freeman
Freeman has assumed his usual role in the Falcons' explosive offense. It is reasonable to conclude he will produce as he has in the past. He's only 27, the Falcons are still a great offense, and he's traditionally been a touchdown machine and a pass catcher. He's never been much of a 20 carry a game workhorse. So you may want to take advantage and make an offer.
#3 Sony Michel
There were projections of Sony Michel leading the league in rushing touchdowns. There was talk of Michel being the backbone to another Super Bowl championship team. There was hype of Michel taking the next step in his sophomore season, and breaking out as a true superstar.
The New England Patriots feasted on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1. Everyone got in on the action! Four players had five or more catches. Phillip Dorsett had two touchdowns. Rex Burkhead had eight carries and five catches.
The one guy that was seemingly irrelevant was Sony Michel. Why would you buy in now? The Patriots have always approached each game with a very unique plan. Michel did have 15 carries last night. Granted they only went for 14 yards, but that wasn't the game plan. The Pats were not going to come out running against the Steelers last night. They were prepared to put on an aerial show against a porous secondary.
They were moving Burkhead and White out wide as receivers and Brady looked like he knew exactly what the Steelers were doing on every play. These dud-games are going to happen with any player, especially a guy who doesn't catch passes in today's NFL. However, it doesn't change the fact that he did have 15 carries in a game that didn't really feature their running game.
They love to run
It's overlooked that the Patriots are almost always near the top in rushing attempts by the end of the season. The running game is a huge part of how that offense operates and Sony Michel is the primary ball carrier. If you are patient through games like this, you'll get your 125 yards and multiple TD games, too. He's just as valuable as he was on draft day.
Hopefully the current owner is not prepared for the emotional roller-coaster the Patriots will take fantasy owners on, and you can pounce!
#2 Todd Gurley
Todd Gurley owners thought they were getting a bargain on draft day when they were able to snatch him up at the end of the first round, or even in the second round. The only reason he didn't go number one overall was the injury concern from last year's playoffs. Granted, those concerns are pretty serious, but the Los Angeles Rams seemed to think Gurley was good to go this year.
They even led us to believe he was going to be on the field for the majority of the offensive snaps on Sunday.
So what happened?
Gurley ended up with 14 carries and 97 yards, and Malcom Brown ended up with 11 carries and two touchdowns.
Brown didn't touch the ball until the fourth drive of the game for the Rams. Gurley played 70% of the Rams offensive snaps and Brown played 26%. Gurley only managed eight yards on five carries in the first half, including a fumble. Brown played a little, was productive, and make no mistake about it, he will be a part of the offense. Ask yourself this question: Do you think Malcom Brown will end up with 20 touchdowns and Todd Gurley will have zero?
The bright side
It would be wise not to overreact. We knew Gurley wasn't going to be ridden into the ground this year. We knew what we were getting into when we drafted him. The great news is Gurley played 70% of the snaps! He rumbled for 91 yards in the second half! Sure, I'm putting a waiver move in for Brown, but I'm also testing the water with Gurley owners.
If Gurley owners believed they were getting a 25 carry per game, volume monster, then they probably aren't too happy right now. It might be your only chance to get him at an emotional discount.
#1 Aaron Jones
Fantasy points were hard to come by in the season opener between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears in what turned out to be a defensive slug-fest. Aaron Jones was supposed to be anointed as the featured back under the new coaching regime in Green Bay. Various outlets had him rated as a top ten and even top five talent in the NFL at his position.
His final stat line in the season opener left many fantasy owners feeling the buyer's remorse. They felt like they were duped into believing he wouldn't split carries. Jamaal Williams saw five carries to Jones' 13. Due to the lack of offensive production, in general, it felt different than reality.
Why you should consider Jones
If you've ever watched the Packers, you know Jones is by far the most talented back on the roster. As mentioned before, many analysts believe he's one the most talented backs in the league. The Packers' offense will be explosive. Chalk this one up to a good Bears defense and early season rust. Jones' 39 yards rushing was not ideal, but it was far better than Williams' five carries for zero yards.
Bottom line
Aaron Jones is the featured back on one of the better offenses in the league. He's got a ton of talent and will have plenty of opportunities to shine. If you believed he'd be a top ten back during your draft, feel free to still believe it. There has been a ton of overreaction to his final stats. The focus needs to be on the Packers' performance against the Bears' defense. Now is the time to take advantage of the owners who think Jones is stuck in a time share and make an offer.
