NFL 2018: 5 Running Backs that are being undervalued

The Running Back position is most people's first choice in their fantasy drafts. People want to saddle that workhorse Running Back in the hope that they will carry them to their league titles.

Todd Gurley, David Johnson and Devonta Freeman have all done that for their owners over the past 3 seasons. But it’s not just the elite players that can provide big scores for your team, week in week out. Each year there is a new crop of impressive rookies, as well as players who overachieve considering where they have been drafted.

Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt are great examples of rookies becoming exceptional fantasy assets for their owners. Here I take a look at some of the players that are currently being undervalued in fantasy drafts, according to their Average Draft Position (ADP).

#1 Lamar Miller – Houston Texans

Current ADP = 22nd RB off of the board at 4.09

Wild Card Round - Oakland Raiders v Houston Texans

We all know Lamar Miller isn’t the best pick in fantasy drafts. He’s struggled with consistency the past couple of seasons in Houston and even struggled to hold down the RB1 spot towards the tail end of 2017. But here is why I think he is being undervalued.

Miller’s main competition for the top spot is D’Onta Foreman. Foreman was the unlucky recipient of a torn Achilles during his rookie campaign. Torn Achilles are notoriously hard for Running Backs to come back from. It usually takes them at least 18 months to find that burst and acceleration that they previously had. It’s looking like Foreman may start the season the PUP list, which would leave Alfred Blue as the only other RB of note. Although Blue took some work away from Miller at the end of last season, I can’t see it happening again.

Another reason is the productivity that Miller has whilst playing with Deshaun Watson. Watson looks like he will be good to go for the start of the campaign and that instantly boosts all players around him. With Watson under centre last year, Miller averaged 14.8 points per game.

If you project Miller to have that same average over a 16 game period, he would have finished with 237.7 points, which would have had him ranked as the RB8 on the season. Now it’s unlikely that he will finish as the RB8, so I’m not saying to draft him in the 2nd round, but, he is going a full 2 rounds behind that. Could he be an absolute steal?

#2 Alex Collins – Baltimore Ravens

Current ADP = 19th RB off of the board at 4.01

Alex Collins enjoyed an impressive first season with the Ravens, finishing as the 18th ranked RB. You may be thinking that 18th isn’t that impressive and why do I have him on this list when he’s being taken as the 19th RB off of the board.

Well, Collins started the season by being cut by the Seattle Seahawks, which is funny considering how much of a car crash their run game was. He was signed by the Ravens, initially to the practice squad before being promoted to the full roster. He didn’t take lead back duties until week 5, which was the first week that he received double-digit touches.

If you take Collins' form from the second half of the season, then it’s pretty impressive. He had scores of 14, 21 and 22 as well as a few poor outings which isn’t surprising considering the lackluster nature of the Ravens passing game. He averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game over the last 8 games which if multiplied over the season would have him come in as the RB 16.

With a second year in the Baltimore offense, I am expecting a better output from Collins. Joe Flacco is supposedly performing better in preseason than he has in years. An improved passing game for the Ravens will definitely help Collins as he will face fewer defenders in the box. If he can continue to take the bulk of the rushing game, and possibly increase his rushing attempts up to 20, then he could be pushing himself in to back end RB1 territory.

#3 Marshawn Lynch – Oakland Raiders

Current ADP = 34th RB off of the board at 7.06

It’s not often that you can draft an RB1 for their team in the 7th round. Lynch is going behind Running Backs such as Tevin Coleman, Rex Burkhead and Tarik Cohen. Whilst those players are good PPR options, none of them are lead backs for their teams. Lynch received the bulk of the rushes during his first season in Oakland.

He rushed 207 times, for 891 yards. He could get upwards of 230 carries in this new look Raiders team, led by Jon Gruden. I know the Raiders signed Doug Martin this offseason, but I see him as just a complementary piece and don’t expect him to eat into Lynch’s workload.

With an improved offensive line, Lynch really could put up some big numbers for fantasy owners. He finished the 2017 season with on fire, with scores of 20, 20.1, and 13.9. Lynch was the RB 24 on the season last year after a slow start hampered him. With lead back duties fully under his control, Lynch could be winning fantasy players championships come the end of the season.

#4 Duke Johnson – Cleveland Browns

Current ADP = 39th RB off of the board at 8.10

Duke Johnson surprised everyone in 2017 when he finished as the RB11 on the season. Johnson only had 82 attempts on the ground, but it was his use in the passing game that lifted him into RB1 territory. His 74 receptions ranked 4th among all Running Backs.

So why is he being drafted as the 39th RB off of the board when his role hasn’t changed? Yes, the Browns signed Carlos Hyde and drafted Nick Chubb, but they will mainly battle it out for the early down work. Johnson’s role was secured when he signed a 3-year $15 million contract this offseason.

It is likely that Johnson sees some regression this season, but I think he will perform better than the 39th RB. The Browns offense is looking like it could be a genuine force this season after recruiting Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry and Hyde. As fantasy experts will tell you, a Running Back on a winning team is usually better than a Running Back on a losing team. At this moment in time, Johnson is a huge value pick in the 8th round.

#5 CJ Anderson – Carolina Panthers

Current ADP = 40th RB off of the board at 8.12

CJ Anderson is going 2 spots behind Duke Johnson in current mock drafts, yet the two players couldn’t be more different. Unlike Johnson, Anderson will get all of his usage in the ground game. Anderson was signed to accompany Christian McCaffrey in the Panthers backfield, where he will take on the early down and goal-line work. His usage in the passing game will be non-existent though, as McCaffrey excelled at that role during his rookie campaign.

I think Anderson is an underrated RB, who performed well behind a middle of the road Broncos O Line. Jonathon Stewart has moved on to New York, leaving behind 198 carries to be filled. Whilst I see an uptick in McCaffrey’s workload, I can’t see him taking more than 25 of those carries away from Anderson.

Anderson is locked and loaded as the power back in this Panthers offense, and if he takes the goal-line work as expected, then he could far exceed his current RB40 ADP.