NFL Power Rankings heading into the final three weeks of the season

Fringe playoff teams

None of these teams have a playoff spot secured and if my calculations are correct, only two of them control their own destiny, in terms of making the cut if they win out, regardless of what else happens around the league. And only two of them will ultimately make it most likely. None of these squads blow you away. They all have bad losses on their resume and there are multiple areas that has disappointed at times.

Miami Dolphins

13. Miami Dolphins (8-5)

The Dolphins came a little short from pulling off a comeback against the Chiefs this past Sunday after KC had that big run, and that most likely takes them out of the race for the AFC East, but they still control their own playoff destiny as far as I can tell. The Miami defense has been incredible. They are either first or second in points allowed (18.8), takeaways (25) and third-down percentage (33.1). Their coaching staff does an excellent job of teaching and game-planning for specific matchups. Offensively, injuries have been a story for them pretty much all season long, while the switch to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback has certainly been in character with the horizontal passing attack from OC Chan Gailey. The big issue for them is the lack of explosive plays – only the Bengals (32) have less than their 34 plays of 20+ yards. And while they do run the ball at an middle-of-the-pack rate, they are averaging a league-low 3.6 yards per carry. That’s why they can’t really control the pace of games but also not be as dynamic scoring to keep up with the high-flying offenses. Still, before their loss to Kansas City on Sunday, they had won seven of their last eight and they are sixth in point differential with +6.5

14. Arizona Cardinals (7-6)

This team is a little tough to figure out where to put. Everybody loved them when they were 6-3, but then then were a Hail Mary against Buffalo away from losing five straight and then they completely dominate the Giants, who were getting hyped up a week ago. In theory, they have one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, they have shown the ability to run the ball effectively, I like some of the things Vance Joseph does schematically on defense and some of their young players on that side of that ball have really come in their own. Unfortunately, Kliff Kingsbury’s offense leaves me wanting to see more, with opposing teams being able to just man up and anticipate passing concepts, while their 13th-ranked scoring defense only looks as good on paper as they do because they have feasted in their matchup versus three NFC East teams and the Jets (10.5 PPG in those matchups). They control their own destiny and could be lucky if their one true remaining test comes against the Rams in week 17, when those guys have nothing to play for potentially, but if they make it, I’m worried about what happens when the really well-coached NFC teams can solely focus on them.

15. Washington Football Team (6-7)

Over their current four-game winning streak (second-longest active one to Kansas City), Washington leads all teams in point differential at +12.5 and the only teams that are actually close are the Saints and Seahawks, who had blowout wins over the QB-less Broncos and winless Jets respectively during that stretch. They have to hope that rookie RB Antonio Gibson can return without much of an issue from his turf toe, because the offense is really all about him and their one stud receiver Terry McLaurin. They are certainly limited in the pass game, with by far their best option at quarterback being somebody who couldn’t even walk properly at the start of the calendar year, who doesn’t really create out of structure anyway. At the same time, they just scored 23 points and won a game without an offensive touchdown this past Sunday. Their defensive line is absolutely loaded with first-round talent and they have no fear of attacking patterns and trying to take away easy yardage against the pass. That’s why they are tied for third-fewest yards allowed per play (5.0) and they are sixth in points allowed despite their bad start to the season (21.2).

16. New England Patriots (6-7)

These Patriots are holding on for dear life here. They are not very talented. Cam Newton has not looked the same since missing time with COVID early on in the season, with more than 180 passing yards just three times on the year, none of their receivers would be more than a WR3 on teams with average pass-catching groups and if we can agree that Miami wasn’t who they are now in the season-opener, the only good defense they have score over 20 points against all season was the Ravens – and they were really banged up coming into that matchup. They still have one of the top secondaries in the league and are incredibly well-coached of course on that side of the ball, but they lack beef on the defensive interior, which has them as a bottom-ten run defense, and they have suffered blowout losses to elite offensive play-callers like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. They are once again the least penalized team in the league (just 442 yards against) and they destroyed the Chargers 45-0 just two weeks ago, in large part because their special teams were so amazing and how much better their coaching was, but that’s not enough against great teams.

17. Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)

This might be surprising to some people, but the Raiders are the only team in the league to score on at least half of their offensive drives. We have seen them beat opposing teams up with the run game, with a couple of 200-yard performances already this season, but they have almost gone 2-0 in shootouts against the Chiefs and Derek Carr has had his best season since making a run at the MVP award several years ago. Unfortunately, their defense has really only had a couple of good games. They are one of only three units to allow 30 points per game – and the other two are the Cowboys and Jets. And they also allow opponents to convert exactly half of their third downs (tied for third-highest). In college football-fashion, they have a few quality wins on their resume over the Saints, Chiefs and Browns – but they have fallen off dramatically recently. Over the last four weeks they have now lost by 37 to the Falcons, 17 to the Colts, they needed a miracle touchdown (and a really bad defensive call) to beat the winless Jets, and they lost to the sub-.500 Chargers in overtime.

18. Minnesota Vikings (6-7)

When you look at the numbers from Minnesota’s game against the Bucs, it almost doesn’t make sense that they lost by 12 points – ten first downs more and 18 minutes more time of possession. Their kicker Dan Bailey had a horrible showing, but special teams have been an issue all season long – only making a league-low two third of their FG attempts, untimely muffs and returns suffered. On paper the offense should be one of the best in the league, with a superstar running back, an outstanding receiver duo and Kirk Cousins capable of making big throws with the right pieces around him. Yet, if you take away the season-opener against Green Bay when most of it came in garbage time, they have only scored more than 30 points twice this season and their 22 giveaways are tied for fifth in the league. The defense has shown some improvement from their horrible 1-5 start, but they have nobody on the roster with more than 3.5 sacks at this point and their young corners have been taken advantage of routinely. I could see them win out potentially, but they still need some help to sneak into the playoffs.