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NFL Power Rankings: Capable of beating anybody
#5. Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)
While piecing together my video preview of the Chiefs-Bengals matchup, I already sang Cincinnati’s praises and laid out how they could win that game. I think they showed on a national scale that this team is legit. When you look at their path to the Super Bowl last year, it’s all very similar, only this season the Ravens aren’t as banged up but rather are in the driver’s seat for the AFC North crown. However, Cincy’s underlying statistics at this point are actually a little better.
They’re number one in rushing success rate from the shotgun and Joe Burrow is number four in EPA per play. That’s thanks to head coach Zac Taylor’s willingness to embrace an offensive identity. This revolves around operating out of the gun more than any other team not named the Ravens and Cardinals in the NFL (who do so largely due to how it enables their option-based run designs). There's more diversity in terms of run schemes and a larger arsenal of little wrinkles to put coverage defenders in conflict.
With Ja’Marr Chase back, they have two legit number one receivers, which puts tremendous stress on their opponents. Only the Bills and Chiefs are converting third downs at a higher rate (48.3%) in the entire NFL. However, the defense has also quietly been tremendous this season, building on last year’s success. DC Lou Anarumo has crafted specialized game-plans to challenge some of the better offensive units in the NFL.
Their secondary is smart and physical, the linebackers trigger with authority, D.J. Reader at the nose is a force against the run and some of those creepers and creative simulated pressures really throw off their opponents.
#6. San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
They would’ve been part of that elite group at the top, if not for the Jimmy G injury. I really like what I saw from 'Mr. Irrelevant' Brock Purdy stepping in, who I looked at as a nice long-time backup. He could potentially have a Taylor Heinicke-like career, but I had to downgrade the Niners a little bit. Still, the combination of their five top skill-position players and the versatility they can operate with from that personnel, along with Kyle Shanahan’s wizardry as a play-designer, can make almost any quarterback look good.
The gameplan didn’t change much on Sunday. As we see Christian McCaffrey create more familiarity with the system, we’ll see them span those weak-side option and angles routes with him against linebackers even more so. The Niners defense is on a different level to the rest of the NFL and they just emphatically shut the down on the Dolphins’ comeback efforts.
Nick Bosa is my favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. Fred Warner’s ability to cover ground in the pass game allows them to play zone coverages differently than any other team in the NFL. Having a pair of safeties that sees and attacks things exceptionally well is a tremendous help and the whole unit is only getting healthier.
DeMeco Ryans is establishing himself as the first choice for open head coaching positions, looking at the way he’s run the ship, even with injuries on all three levels. They’re now behind only Dallas in defensive DVOA (-15.1%), allowing half a yard less per rush (3.3) and opponents to score on four percent less of drives (25.6%).
#7. Minnesota Vikings (10-2)
Along with the Titans +5 seeming like too many points at Philly, I thought the Jets +3.5 was a good bet. And to be fair, the Jets got down to the Minnesota one- and 19-yard line with a chance to score a game-winning touchdown at the end. The way they are built and the fact that no element of the Vikings is really elite (other than Justin Jefferson as an incredible individual player), was why I called for the Cowboys to beat them at home – and they clobbered those guys.
The Vikes are still only 18th in the NFL for offensive and defensive DVOA respectively, while barely having a positive point differential on the season (+10). But they have a knack for hanging around and pulling out in these tight games. Kirk Cousins hasn’t felt like a deer in the headlights in those high-leverage moments, Jefferson has made some phenomenal catches and they have enough balance on offense.
On the opposite side of the ball, they have ended games with huge takeaways (tied for fourth in the NFL with 20). The pass-rush, spear-headed by Za’Darius Smith, is able to close things out. However, they do have some issues on the back-end, considering they’re tied for a league-worst 7.1 yards surrendered per dropback.
My concern with them (with their games versus the Eagles and Cowboys not being competitive), do I trust them in a potential rematch or versus the 49ers once we get to January? Still, they are tied for number one with the Bills in the HRF.com metric of where they start drives on average compared to their opponents, at +3.1 yards of field position.
#8. Miami Dolphins (8-4)
The final team in this group is the only one coming off a loss and there is some concern about what that looked like. After the 75-yard touchdown to Trent Sherfield on their first snap of the day, that explosive Dolphins offense had just 233 yards on 44 plays for the rest of the afternoon. They put together just two possessions of more than four plays altogether.
Meanwhile, the 49ers more than doubled them up in time of possession and were able to sustain drives with seventh-round rookie Brock Purdy from the second possession on. With that being said, the Phins had scored at least 30 points in each of their four prior matchups and held double-digit leads in all but one of those (when they came back from two TDs down at Detroit).
We’ll have to see if defenses can adapt to some of the ways that San Francisco were able to close those passing lanes created by all that speed. This, particularly in the RPO game, but barely anybody has the necessary personnel, especially on the second level. Even though the run game has been a little hot-and-cold at times, they rank behind only the Chiefs in yards per play currently (6.3). Tua Tagovailoa has now barely moved below Patrick Mahomes in EPA per play (+0.329).
I remain concerned about the defense, facing teams who have a comprehensive plan for some of the pressure looks thrown their way. As they transition to more cover-two, we’ll just need to see that pass-rush be able to take advantage of positive game-scripts and being in high-scoring affairs. They’ve easily had their two most productive games in terms of pressures since the arrival of Bradley Chubb a month ago.
