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NFL Power Rankings: Likely playoff teams
#9. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)
Being a Baltimore Ravens fan myself, I should be happy about this group. They’re 8-4, with wins at home over the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals inside their division. However, as much as I want to love this team, something keeps me from really buying in.
Early in the season, it was coverage busts that cost them wins. Now the passing game on offense seems to have devolved and unless Lamar Jackson creates magic, it feels so hard for them to move the ball (and now he could miss some time with a knee sprain). Late-game turnovers have killed them as well. With that being said, they did lead by multiple scores in all four of their losses and in all but one of those, they did so in fourth quarter even.
The same way I credit the Minnesota Vikings for finding ways to pull out those games, Baltimore deserves to be questioned for how they’ve navigated those waters. However, there’s also reason to believe the pendulum could swing their way more often heading down the final stretch of the NFL season.
Rashod Bateman not being healthy has been a major issue. If some of those other receivers can step up and Greg Roman learns how to utilize them (to accentuate Lamar’s strengths again), plus as an effect of that creating softer box counts for this run game, we could see this offense still kind of get their groove back.
Pair that with getting a Pro Bowl safety in Marcus Williams back and it's big. Especially for a unit that’s tied for fourth with 20 takeaways, is up to second in third-down rate (31.2%) and hasn’t surrendered more than 24 points since week three (outside of that late comeback by the Jags). Baltimore is somewhat surprisingly fourth in overall DVOA as a team now (23.8%), thanks in part to fielding the premiere special teams unit.
#10. New York Jets (7-5)
I despise everybody on the internet using any opportunity they get to crap on Zach Wilson and call Mike White god’s gift. But I have to admit that the latter has brought a certain stability to offense. Despite the stat sheet saying no passing TDs versus two interceptions, I thought he actually had the performance this past Sunday at Minnesota (where Braxton Berrios dropped a potential game-winner in the end-zone late).
Garrett Wilson has broken out as a dominant rookie receiver and the ball is being spread around by OC Mike LaFleur. Despite a rotating wheel in the backfield over the last eight weeks, the Patriots (twice) are the only team to hold them under 120 yards on the ground. That’s good enough, paired with how tremendous Gang Green has been on defense.
No matter which metric you’re looking at – yards per play (4.8), points per game (18.6), DVOA (-12.6%), etc. – this is a top-six unit in the league. Rookie Ahmad Sauce Gardner gets all the shine – and deservedly so – but this entire secondary is so smart and instinctive. Those guys on the second level are flying missiles and they have a deep rotation up front, where everybody comes in with a revving motor. Quinnen Williams is having an All-Pro level season.
Considering the fact they felt like they needed to bench their number two overall pick from just a year ago at QB, you’ve got to love what you’ve seen in terms of how they’ve built up this squad.
#11. Tennessee Titans (7-5)
Man, that was a major letdown on Sunday. After winning seven of eight games before a narrow loss against the Bengals (where a penalty on the field goal block team took away a chance to tie up the score late), they allowed the Eagles to score the final three touchdowns. Their offensive line was dominated and their former Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Brown absolutely destroyed their secondary through the air.
Prior to this past Sunday, they had been the number one defense in rushing success rate (70%). This is despite playing with six defenders or less in the box at the second-highest rate in the NFL. I also think with Denico Autry back in the lineup against anything but the best O-line in football, they’ll be able to wreak havoc. Although they can have their issues against teams that get their receivers isolated down the field against a corner group that misses bodies. They’re allowing a league-low 30.4% of third downs to be converted against them.
The real concern, however, is the offense. Ryan Tannehill still delivers some big-time vertical shots. But with a banged-up ankle he doesn’t provide the same as a rushing threat. Other than rookie Treylon Burks, nobody really scares you through the air. If you take away that monster 300-yard day against a horrible Texans run D, they’re bottom ten in rushing yards per game (102.3), with below 90 in four straight. Some of those depth issues that concerned me during the offseason are starting to really manifest themselves.
#12. New York Giants (7-4-1)
Now we’re getting to back-to-back NFC East. You can really call them 12A and 12B here, since we just saw that there isn’t really any separation between the two, as their game on Sunday ended in a tie. I’m just going to give the slightest of nods to the New York Giants here, because they do have one fewer loss on their resume. I also think their coaching is a little better.
Even if New York ends up just sneaking into the playoffs as the seventh seed, Brian Daboll should deserve consideration for Coach of the Year. Mainly because of what he’s been able to do with very limited (offensive) resources. Darius Slayton remains the only player on the team with more than 300 receiving yards. That offense runs through Saquon Barkley as much as any unit does rely on the running back. This along with some clever conceptual designs and Daniel Jones delivering some big third-down conversions.
Other than in their loss to the Detroit Lions, when they turned the ball over three times, they just don’t make a lot mistakes. The defense can be very opportunistic, whilst Wink Martindale has been really good at finding the right call and having everybody on the same page on crucial downs, where he doesn’t leave his back-end as vulnerable.
Nobody has missed fewer tackles than them as a unit (34). That’s how they’re top-six in third-down (35.2%) and red-zone TD percentage (48.9%). I just think we’ve seen the limitations of this team twice now against the Cowboys, keeping the score close for a while, until the difference in talent level becomes very apparent.
#13. Washington Commanders (7-5-1)
You can certainly argue that the Giants’ division foes are the more talented team. Particularly their trio of receivers and the Bama boys in the middle of that D-line are the major difference in their favor.
There may be some limitations with Taylor Heinicke from a passing perspective, but if you have Terry McLaurin smoking All-Pro corners like Jaire Alexander, OC Scott Turner understands how to put defenders in conflict. They've averaged 146.6 rushing yards per game – with one below the century-mark – since their 2-4 start. So they have a formula on offense that can move the ball pretty consistently.
The defense has been the bigger story and have been the transformation of this season. Since I last released the power rankings back after Week 4, they’ve improved from 24th to 10th in defensive DVOA, despite not having Chase Young. And after having only one takeaway through five weeks, they’ve now recorded 14 over the past eight weeks.
Washington can crush the pocket from all angles and their back-seven has become much better at anticipating and driving on routes in front of them, rather than playing passive zone coverages. Plus, they’re tied with the Cowboys for an NFL-best 73 tackles for loss. They’re now fourth in third-down rate (33.1%) and they allow the fewest plays per drive (5.3), to help out their offense.
#14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
Theoretically, the Bucs deserve to be in the next tier because they just haven’t been a legit playoff team this season. They needed last-second comeback efforts over the three-win Rams and four-win Saints to barely get to the .500 mark. However, the NFC South is so bad that they’re basically a shoe-in for the division crown.
For the year, they average 0.4 yards per rush (3.3) and 11.4 rushing yards less than the next-closest team (73.3). They’ve had protection issues on the interior and their receivers have either been banged up, inconsistent or both.
The defense has been more of a bright-spot because if you take Weeks 4-8 out of the equation, they’ve held opponents to just 13.6 points a contest. Even if you take the full season, they’re up at fifth in the NFL at 18.3. Tampa has some legit issues spotting run schemes that allowed offensive linemen to climb up to the second level – in particular outside zone – but they’ve now held opponents to below 70 yards in three of their past four contests.
They’re also top five in sacks (38), tackles for loss (67) and fewest missed tackles (43). They simply haven’t gotten those timely takeaways that we’re accustomed to seeing from them (11 – third-fewest).
