NFL Power Rankings heading into the fourth quarter of the 2022 season

NFL Power Rankings: In the hunt for a Wildcard spot

#15. Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

Seattle Seahawks v Los Angeles Rams

The Seattle Seahawks should be feeling good about being 7-5 and controlling their own destiny (as far as a playoff spot is concerned). However, I don’t know how can look at their last three outings and not be highly concerned. They needed to put together a game-winning drive at the L.A. Rams this Sunday, who are currently fielding their C-team, to avoid going 0-3 over that stretch.

Their offense has become very one-dimensional (just 194 yards on 59 rushing attempts) and their defense has not been able to stop anybody on the ground. They allowed 161 and 171 yards respectively against two of the bottom-run units and were gashed for 283 against the Raiders, who put 40 points on them.

Geno Smith is playing like a top-ten quarterback and he has the weapons around him to deal some serious damage. However, they don’t have the pass-rush to regularly have the upper hand in dropback-type games and have a major disadvantage right now on the ground, comparing both sides of the ball.

Seattle is tied for second in turnovers forced (21), but it’s become very rare that they hold much of the control over games. Geno just threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns and they needed to get into the end-zone with half a minute left to beat the Rams who had almost a practice squad out. I’m concerned about what might happen when they meet more complete teams in the playoffs.

#16. Detroit Lions (5-7)

NFL Week 13 - Jacksonville Jaguars v Detroit Lions

I’ve been wanting the Lions to be good for so long and now they’re finally here. They were the number one scoring offense, but dead-last ranked defense over the first month of the season. They got shut up by the Patriots before going into their bye week and losing two games coming out of it, where the defense broke down late.

Since then, they’ve won four of the last five, with the only loss coming on a walk-off field goal by the Bills on Thanksgiving. Their offense is now top-seven in the NFL in terms of yards per play (5.8) and points a game (26.3), along with top-12 in passing and rushing.

Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has quietly been doing an excellent job of bringing in new elements on a weekly basis, especially in terms of run schemes. They also have a dominant O-line that sets the table for them. When they get down to the red-zone, they score touchdowns, cashing in on a league-high 73.9% of those trips.

More importantly, the defense has recorded nine takeaways over that five-game stretch, which puts them at a +6 compared to their opponents. They’ve held opposing quarterbacks to a completion percentage of below 62% in each of those. They can still be vulnerable against some high-flying passing attacks, but they don’t allow many lay-ups anymore and can take the ball away.

As of the time I’m writing this, they’re a one-point favorite at home against the Vikings, and after going to the Jets, they’ll be facing three more teams that are at least three games below .500 – Playoffs?!

#17. Las Vegas Raiders (5-7)

NFL Week 13 - Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders

Could we not have started this back in September? Like, the winning part? You look at the offensive numbers for the Raiders for the entirety of the season and it’s hard to fathom how they started the year 2-7.

They’re tied for fifth in yards per play (5.9), including the second-best mark in yards per rush (5.2). They're behind only the Bears, who have the most dynamic running quarterback in the league right now. Only the Chiefs and Bills score on a higher rate of their possessions (45.1%).

Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams are unquestionably top-three players at their respective positions, and they’ve failed to score at least 20 points just once since their season-opener. Derek Carr has produced some frustrating turnovers and they didn’t let the passing game run through Davante enough for stretches. If they had just been more consistent through quarters, that would’ve been fine.

Defensively, they simply haven’t been disruptive enough, as they’re bottom-five in sacks (21) and tackles for loss (46), along with tied for dead-last in takeaways (nine). We’ve seen a little more coverage diversity under DC Patrick Graham, but other than Maxx Crosby, the rest of that front simply hasn’t been able to apply the pressure. They’re the only team which opposing signal-callers are completing more than 70 percent of their passes against, for an NFL-best passer rating of 104.4.

#18. Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)

NFL Week 13 - Los Angeles Chargers v Las Vegas Raiders

I don’t remember a .500 team that is more disappointing on a weekly basis when I put on their games on. This was supposed to be a top-ten offense and defense. They’re outside the top-20 in both in terms of DVOA and 26th overall as a team.

Justin Herbert is a top-five quarterback in the NFL, but they constantly hold him back with static passing concepts. He’s 32nd among guys with at least 100 attempts with just 6.2 intended air yards per attempt. And they have no run game to consistently support him with. If you take out their matchup against a horrific Browns run D, they’ve averaged just 70.7 rushing yards per game and cracked the century mark just once.

Yet, the re-worked defense might be even more disappointing. With more big bodies on the D-line, they were supposed to even out those negative box counts on the ground. They put Khalil Mack on the opposite edge to Joey Bosa, added J.C. Jackson to play as their boundary corner and orchestrate coverages around. Just a second year in the system should have allowed them to take a big step.

In reality, they still put themselves in negative looks in the run game and can’t “win those gaps back." Bosa has been hurt since Week 3, Jackson was benched at times before suffering a season-ending knee injury, and other than some creative game-plans by Brandon Staley, they just haven’t been a cohesive unit. That’s why only Detroit – who has really turned things around over the last month plus – has surrendered more yards per play (6.1) in the whole NFL.

#19. New England Patriots (6-6)

NFL Week 13 - Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots

It’s pretty fitting that the Pats are now 6-6, because that’s what I see them as – a bang-on .500 team. If they’re facing a team with clear weaknesses, they have the organizational know-how to craft game-plans that can take advantage of those. But they most lack the individual talent to hang with the best teams in the NFL.

The only team above .500 that they’ve defeated so far is the Jets (twice), while having lost to four opponents above that mark. Defensively, they’re third in DVOA as a unit (-13.8), with big bodies up front to eat space, massive guys behind that to win collisions in the run game and an extremely well-coached secondary. This includes some young guys now with the juice to break on the ball.

The offense on the other hand seems extremely limited. Rhamondre Stevenson is near the top of the NFL in terms of broken tackles and yards after contact. But outside of one good showing at Minnesota, Mac Jones seems to have regressed from a decision-making perspective, whilst not having much around him. Especially in terms of being able to consistently create separation and make stuff happen after the catch.

I mean, they just put in rookie CB Marcus Jones last Thursday night versus the Bills to give them some splash with that 48-yard touchdown on a quick screen. They then averaged less than 3.9 yards per play for the rest of the day.