NFL Power Rankings heading into the fourth quarter of the 2022 season

NFL Power Rankings: Draft position should matter most

#25. Atlanta Falcons (5-8)

NFL Week 13 - Pittsburgh Steelers v Atlanta Falcons

Early on this season, I thought the Atlanta Falcons had a pretty clear path to victory, even if there might have been some limitations. We saw Arthur Smith create some schematic advantages and be relentless with pounding defenses on the ground. They’ve still only failed to reach the 100-mark once on the season and are behind only the Bears with 158.9 rushing yards per game.

What has been different during this most recent five-game stretch (when they’ve gone 1-4), has been the fact that although there were more explosive runs sprinkled in, they got into third-and-long situations more regularly.

That’s why we’ve seen more pressure on Marcus Mariota in true dropback settings (only converted 36.5% total third downs over those five weeks), where he’s missed several throws which you need an NFL starter to deliver on and in return. This has led to more turnovers – nine over the past six weekends.

That won’t cut it in concert with a defense that still has a lot of young guys finding their way. The unit has surrendered more first downs (285) and allowed opponents to score at the highest percentage of drives this season (45.0%). I don’t really understand their plan on that side of the ball either, as they pressure opposing quarterbacks on a league-low 15.3% of dropbacks. Despite Dean Pees’ roots of bringing pressure in designated passing situations, nobody blitzes at a lower rate (15.5%) in the entire NFL. Only the Colts and Texans are behind them in DVOA on that side of the ball.

#26. Carolina Panthers (4-8)

NFL Week 12 - Denver Broncos v Carolina Panthers

Before that thrilling 37-34 overtime defeat to the Falcons, the Panthers were dead-last in offensive DVOA. With P.J. Walker did give them some spark, but after he got banged up, the Panthers have now moved on to their third quarterback Sam Darnold, who looked pretty solid in his lone start so far. They’re now up to number 30 in DVOA.

A big reason for that has been a bigger focus on the downhill rushing attack, where their O-line can shine, as they’ve rushed for 169+ yards in four of their past six games. However, they need to make more plays to keep drives going, as only the Texans convert third downs at a lower rate (27.1%).

Other than that random shootout at Atlanta, which I already referenced, the Panthers defense has quietly been pretty darn impressive. The final numbers may not quite look that way, but turnovers by the offense and being on the field more than any other unit in the NFL (32:43 minutes) has put a lot of stress on them. They’re top-11 in yards and points surrendered per drive, whilst having scored three touchdowns themselves.

#27. New Orleans Saints (4-9)

NFL Week 13 - New Orleans Saints v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Are the Saints really this bad? Should they have more than twice as many losses as wins? Probably not. They were tied at three mid-way through the fourth quarter against the Bucs back in Week 2, before then-starting QB Jameis Winston tossed two horrible picks. Then they should have easily put their divisional rivals away this past Sunday, when they allowed a game-losing touchdown with just three seconds left. If they just pull out those two contests, they lead the NFC South right now.

However, more so than we’ve ever seen from this group, veterans have made some back-breaking mistakes. Other than that outlier 24-0 thrashing of the Raiders, they haven’t really been able to put together any complete performances as a team. A big reason why they haven’t managed to control the flow of the game has been their give-take numbers.

New Orleans is tied for a league-low in turnovers forced (nine), whilst being second in giving them away (21). That puts them second behind only the Colts in plus/minus, at -12. The offensive line still protects the passer very effectively, as only Tom Brady has been pressured at a lower rate this season than Andy Dalton (13.2% of dropbacks).

Considering the way they’ve been able to make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable back there in the past, they’ve fallen off in a major way, pressuring the passer at the second-lowest rate in the league (16.0%). And looking at this secondary, which had been so sound and well-coached in the past, six of the eight players with over 30% of the snaps have recorded a PFF grade of 52.2 or worse.

#28. Denver Broncos (3-9)

NFL Week 13 - Denver Broncos v Baltimore Ravens

I listed my top-five “most disappointing teams” of 2022 yesterday on Twitter and this was my pick for number one. Denver’s Over/Under for the season was set at 10.5 by Vegas. Just let that sink in for a minute. And really, if they had shown some signs of life on offense with Russell Wilson, things might not be quite as frustrating. However, he and that entire unit have been absolutely dreadful.

Up to this point, they’ve score on a league-low 26.6% of their drives and are also dead-last in points per drive at a miniscule 1.2. They’re ahead of only the Texans and Panthers in third-down percentage (27.4%) and tied with the Patriots for the worst red-zone TD percentage (37.5%).

We don’t know what exactly happened in that exchange between defensive tackle Mike Purcell and Russell Wilson. However, there’s probably reason for reports about some of the guys in that locker room being “out” on the freshly signed 250-million-dollar QB. The defense has without a doubt been one of the elite groups in the NFL so far.

They’re tied for second-lowest yards per play (4.8) and points per game (17.0) each. What they’ve been able to do in the red-zone, to combat those offensive struggles, has been particularly impressive, allowing opponents to get on the board for six points at a rate that is 11.1% below any other team (32.1%). This unit is Super Bowl-worthy, yet here they sit with three times as many losses as wins. That’s just mind-boggling, considering the investment they’ve made under center.

#29. Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1)

NFL Week 13 - Indianapolis Colts v Dallas Cowboys

Since I just mentioned it with the Broncos – the Colts were the number three “most disappointing team” of 2022, with the banged-up reigning champs in the Rams sandwiched between the two. Indy was supposed to be one of those semi-Super Bowl darkhorse candidates.

Prior to their collapse in the final two games of last season, which cost them a playoff berth, they had won nine of their previous 12 games. The only three losses coming on the final drive of those games. Then they swapped out Carson Wentz – who was a big reason for their late-season error – for a former MVP in Matt Ryan, along with some veteran defenders hungry for a ring.

Instead they ended up benching Matty Ice following Week 7 (who ranks 28th in EPA per play for the position) and then firing head coach Frank Reich a couple of weeks later. This was after ownership forced him to put in Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, who unsurprisingly looked overmatched.

Yet, it’s the typical areas of strength that have really been disappointing. Their O-line has surrendered a league-high 46 sacks and with a nicked-up Jonathan Taylor, they’ve gone over 110 rushing yards in just three contests. A big factor has also been the Colts having turned the ball over five times more often than any other team in the league (26), whilst recording just 12 takeaways to their name on defense (tied for fourth). This gives them the worst TO differential in the league at -14.

The defense has had a few more good moments, being tied for the third-most tackles for loss league-wide (68), but they’re bottom-five in passer rating allowed (95.9) and missed tackles (64).