NFL Power Rankings heading into the fourth quarter of the 2021 season

5. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)

This Chiefs team is weird. The defense was absolute tire-fire early in the season, when they were on pace to shatter records for yards per play allowed and others. Now they actually have held their last four opponents to just 39 points combined, taken the ball away ten times and won five straight of course. The offense, on the other hand, has turned the ball over at the second-highest rate (23) and has gone from bombs away every snap to throwing it underneath and actually running some 22 personnel, as opposing defenses have played so many two-high safety shells against them, which they have grown at sustaining drives, due to throwing it to Tyreek Hill underneath and forcing defenses to tackle that dynamo, and converting a league-best 50.7% of third downs. They have now won five straight and are on top of the AFC West with an 8-4 record, but it doesn’t feel like the Kansas City team we’ve been mesmerized about over the past three seasons. However, they’re now looking like an above-average defense all of a sudden and still have Patrick Mahomes – even if he has to stop side-arming standard five-yard throws – who can create things off script and deliver throws down the field, that bail his team out in a major way.

6. Los Angeles Rams (8-4)

I feel like I should put these guys lower because of how they've struggled until this past weekend, losing three of their last four, before that get-right game against Jacksonville, when they absolutely blew their doors off. This is still kind of a troubled team because of how banged up Matt Stafford is, how much pressure Sean McVay puts on his quarterback, by not being able to manufacture any big runs and turning this into a heavy drop-back offense, a lack of physicality up front on both sides of the ball showing up at times and the simplicity in some of the things they do on defense from a coverage-perspective, with a lot more soft zone looks. They are still number one with 6.2 yards per play offensively, and I think Stafford is wrongly blamed for a few of his picks, but all but two of their 51 explosive plays coming through the air is not sustainable. And they allow the third-fewest yards per play on defense as well (5.0), but there’s only five other teams that stay on the field for longer on a per-drive basis. The whole super team mantra and the studs-and-duds build haven’t served them that well, but they have all the talent to get it together.

7. Buffalo Bills (7-5)

Losing 14-10 to the Patriots at home really hurt Buffalo’s playoff prospects, since they could have re-taken the AFC East lead and set up another monster game at New England two-and-a-half weeks from now. Instead, they’re down basically two-and-a-half games and pretty much have to win that rematch, if they want to have a chance at a home playoff game. I know it’s 2021 and NFL teams rarely win by the way they control the ground game, but when your quarterback is nearly your leading rusher (with 422 yards) and you got steam-rolled by the two elite rushing teams you’ve faced (the Colts and now Patriots), for a combined 486 yards, that’s an issue. Outside of that beat-down at the hands of Indy, I would say Josh Allen has played pretty well, but he’s had quite a few moments of being careless with the ball this year, and when they can’t play from ahead, the defense has definitely shown cracks, even if they’re still number one in several statistics like yards per play, points and others. They still, however, have the best point-differential league-wide (+11.7), even if they’ve feasted on the poor to some degree, and while the Tre’Davious White injury looms large, they have all the pieces to contend for the AFC. They just have to put it all together.

8. Dallas Cowboys (8-4)

Similar to the Rams, here’s another team that has been struggling to find their way recently, equally losing three of their last four, before being in control all game against the Saints on Thursday Night. My issue with Dallas is their inconsistencies throughout the team. The offense is number one in total yards and third in points scored, running and throwing the ball equally effective (top-five in both categories yards per attempt), but for a group that has put up over 40 on three different occasions, to also see four games of 20 or less is kind of confusing. Defensively, they’ve actually been more stable, I would say, because, other than the season-opener at Tampa, I felt like the only time it’s really felt like they were on the ropes since then was on Thanksgiving against the Raiders. The three stats that really matter for them – they’re the second-best third-down unit (31.8%), number three in pressure percentage (28.5%), and tied for fifth with 23 total takeaways. We’ve seen Dak be off in a couple of games, and at this point, I feel like every snap they have Zeke out there over Tony Pollard is a wasted one, but they have the balance to move the ball on anybody, and the defense can create stops.