NFL Power Rankings heading into the fourth quarter of the 2021 season

9. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)

Other than the Patriots, you can argue the hottest team in the AFC right now is this Colts squad, and what I really appreciate about them is that they seem to know who they are. They’ve only rushed for less than 100 yards twice this season and never below 83, while having gone for 238+ in three of the last five games. Yet, when they faced Tampa Bay’s stingy run defense, they came out and meticulously worked their way down the field with the short passing game, taking control of that contest until Shaq Barrett’s strip-sack completely flipped the momentum. Right now, Frank Reich is in a groove as a play-caller, Jonathan Taylor is playing like the best back in all of football and Carson Wentz plays a largely mistake-free brand of ball. Defensively, they’re average across most statistics and actually near the bottom in pressure percentage and red-zone efficiency, but they have the fifth-fewest plays run against them per drive, and they are starting to pull away from the rest of the pack with 29 takeaways (four more than the next-closest team). They are currently out of the playoffs, and there’s a crowded field for those Wild Card spots, but I don’t think anybody wants to play these guys right now.

10. Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

The Ravens were the AFC’s number one seed coming into the weekend, yet now I can barely find a spot for them in the top ten. The question really is – how much is too much? Looking at who they were supposed to have out there heading into the season, they are now without their top three running backs, All-Pro left tackle, a starting defensive end, inside linebacker, safety and Pro Bowl cornerback duo. For them to be tied for the second-best record in the AFC is pretty wild, considering their winning margin of less than two points per game on average. However, this also shows that they are a little flawed, with the top three running backs combining for just 54 rushing yards more than Lamar Jackson and the offense not having scored 20+ points for a month, while giving up an NFL-most 43 sacks, which their QB isn’t free from blame for. And defensively, they’ve surrendered more explosive plays through the air (54) and are in the bottom-three in yards per play and takeaways. So when you are a squad like that, which lives on the edge of the blade, you can’t lose a game against the Steelers, where you gain five more first downs and possess the ball 13 minutes longer than your opponents.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)

I already said the Chiefs are a weird team this year, but I think we, at least, have to call the Chargers a head-scratcher as well. You look at their offensive numbers – only the Rams, Cowboys and Bucs averaged more than their 6.0 yards per play, and they’re just outside the top-five in third-down percentage (44.4%) thanks to Justin Herbert’s growth as a game-manager, to go along with his stupendous physical talents, but they have weeks where I’m just so underwhelmed by Joe Lombardi’s offense and how he doesn’t allow his single-caller to fire lasers in the intermediate areas. Defensively, only the Jaguars have missed more tackles than them (88) and connected to that is that only Washington allows opponents to convert third downs at a higher rate (49%), but I was very encouraged to see them hold Joe Mixon to 54 yards on 19 carries this past Sunday. Some of their ultra-light boxes and impossible run-fits by design have really hurt them at times, but if they can self-scout enough and have to safeties trigger downhill, I like what they present. And we’ve seen moments where it looked like they might “charger” up the game, but they’re finding ways to finish ultimately.

12. Tennessee Titans (8-4)

Do we know if the Titans are actually that good? I mean, they are sit here as the number two seed AFC as we speak, but they’ve now dropped back-to-back games against the Texans and Patriots by multiple possessions and scored just 13 points in both of them. That offense, without the trio of Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, is deeply troubled in my opinion. On the year, Tennessee has turned the ball over at the third-highest rate in the league (21), and they’re tied with the Texans for dead-last with just 26 explosive plays through the air. They did rip off some big runs at New England and actually would have been in that game if not for a couple of huge fumbles in the second half, but unless they can get that ground game going now coming off their bye week, I’m worried. Defensively, they’re in the bottom-ten in explosive passes allowed (44), and they’re tied for the most first downs surrendered via penalty (30), but that side of the ball has taken over some games for them, with a deep rotation up front and a very opportunistic defense, led by the instinctive Kevin Byard. They face a very friendly close to their schedule, but will need their stars on offense back if they want to make any noise in the postseason.