NFL Power Rankings heading into the fourth quarter of the 2021 season

17. Las Vegas Raiders (6-6)

We can’t let that big overtime win at Dallas on Thanksgiving take away from the fact the Raiders have lost the other four games over their last five, and in those losses, they have scored between 13 and 16 points in all of them. That’s kind of crazy, considering Derek Carr leads the league by a pretty wide margin, with 60 passes of 20+ yards. Their issue is that they are a bottom-five rushing team in total yards and per attempt, as well as struggling in key situations, where they’re bottom-three on third downs (33.8%) and in the red-zone (50%). That does not mix well with their defense allowing a league-high 77.4% of red-zone possession to end in touchdowns. So ultimately, they have a point-differential of minus 3.2, which ranks 23rd league-wide. They do a good job of limiting big plays, and as we look into special teams, A.J. Cole leads all punters with 51.1 net yards per boot – so they can win with field position, but being one-dimensional on offense and struggling in scoring situations on both sides of the ball is really hurting this team recently. Until Sunday, they had won every game they were in basically. It had to swing the other way at some point.

18. Cleveland Browns (6-6)

It’s put-up or shut-up time for the Browns now. Sitting there at .500, they can still split the season series with all their AFC North rivals and win the division, but with how packed the field for Wild Card contenders is, they’re in danger of missing out on the playoffs altogether. Offensively, they remain one of the elite rushing teams, being tied for a league-best 5.1 yards per run and third total yards on the ground. However, Baker Mayfield has been really banged up and way off on his throws, as he’s barely completing half of his passes for 165 yards and three touchdowns and picks each over their last three contests. I mean, that one big win over the Bengals was the only time they’ve scored 17 points (or more) since that crazy shootout with the Chargers all the way back in Week Five. Their defense is top-five in yards per play and have one of the most ferocious front-fours in the league. They’re just one penalty away from surrendering a league-high first downs for free, and they run a lot of simple two-high shells on the backend, but that side of the ball is certainly good enough for them to win. They just need quarterback play.

19. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)

Losing 13-7 to the Giants at MetLife, in large part due to probably how Jalen Hurts has played as a pro, certainly took some steam off this recent charge for Philly, but the only other game they’ve lost over the last one-and-a-half months came on a walk-off field goal by the Chargers. The biggest reason for their turnaround has been the transition from their RPO-heavy approach, where they forced Hurts to pull the ball out of the belly of his running backs and throw it accurately, to either going with a straight hand-off or having him read the end-man and running himself on simple zone-reads and stuff like that. Therefore, they went from a team with the lowest percentage of running back carries to the one that has gained the most first downs (128) and explosive plays (15) on the ground, while only the Colts and Browns average more than their 5.0 yards per run. And because they’re always on or ahead of schedule and because of what Hurts can do on scrambles, only three teams convert a higher rate of their third downs (50.7%). Defensively, due to how conservative they are with deep coverages and blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the league (15.5%), patient quarterbacks can pick them apart with 100 paper-cuts, but they’ve only allowed 100 yards on the ground once over this 4-2 stretch and they’ve forced, at least, one turnover in each of their wins.

20. Denver Broncos (6-6)

Have you ever felt like a team saw the Chiefs leave a door open for them so many times at Arrowhead, yet they were so far from taking advantage of those opportunity because you simply didn’t trust them to actually get it done? That’s kind of where we are with the Broncos right now. Teddy Bridgewater has now actively dodged at tackle and then put up one of the worst attempts I’ve seen in a while, to surrender a couple of pick-sixes, but he’s just not played well since their 3-0 start. When everything is great and they get to play from ahead, to where they can control things with the run game – which by the way, we finally saw Javonte Williams be unleashed as their featured option and it was awesome – they can pull off some impressive wins, but if the game is put in Teddy’s hands, he just starts to crumble. Protection has been an issue for them I would say, but there are all the weapons to make it work. Defensively, there’s plenty to like, allowing the third-lowest points-per-game mark in the NFL (18.2). They’ve forced multiple turnovers in five games, and a big key to their success has been being the best in the league at avoiding missed tackles pretty much all season long, now with just 50, even if they may be the fourth-worst third down unit (43.9%).