NFL Power Rankings heading into the fourth quarter of the 2021 season

25. Atlanta Falcons (5-7)

It’s kind of crazy to think Atlanta is just one-and-a-half games behind the number six and seven seeds right now. With a point differential of negative 9.7, they rank ahead of only the Jets, Jaguars and Texans. We’ve seen a couple of stand-out performances from Matt Ryan this year, but he’s been below-average, I would say, the rest of the way, and this offense is really just Cordarrelle making something happen with the different ways he is utilized and rookie Kyle Pitts getting to show off his talent the few times Arthur Smith puts him in position to do so. Their big issue simply has been the lack of explosive plays, where they’re tied for a league-low two runs of 20+ yards and bottom-five with 30 passes of that distance. The defense has actually taken the ball away in eight consecutive games now and second-year man A.J. Terrell has turned himself into a top-ten corner – which is why we saw Chris Godwin set a Bucs franchise-record with 15 catches, after I predicted he would see a heavy target share – but only the Jets have surrendered more than their 27.7 points per game and that has a lot to do with their inability to pressure the quarterback, as they’ve recorded four sacks less than any other team in the league (15) and also produce pressure at the lowest rate (16.3%).

26. New York Giants (4-8)

Really, all you need to know about how bad this Giants offense has been is the fact I benched Saquon Barkley on my fantasy team this past weekend, simply because I don’t trust a group that has a talent like that averaging 3.8 yards per carry and can’t get into the paint. This offense is tied with the Texans for an NFL-low 18 total touchdowns, in large part, due to converting an even worse 41.9% of their red-zone possessions into six points – no other team is below 50. I thought we saw some growth from Daniel Jones early on, but he has turned the ball over eight times over their last six games again. They did hold Carolina to three points, Kansas City to 20, Las Vegas to 16 and then Philly to 7, but in-between those, they got carved up by Tom Brady, in large part due to their lack of post-snap coverage rotations and not forcing the old man to move off the spot at all, as they are tied for the second-lowest pressure-percentage league-wide (17.4%). The biggest thing they have going for themselves is, despite Danny Dimes turning back into a turnover machine, they are still top-ten in differential (+4) for that category, and the defense has largely improved throughout the year, with some young guys stepping up.

27. New Orleans Saints (5-7)

I hate to say it, because I’m a big Sean Payton fan and thought his group starting the year off with a 5-2 record was remarkable, considering the retirement of Drew Brees and the lack of offensive weaponry outside of Alvin Kamara – who hasn’t been available for over a month now by the way – but the fact is, they are riding an NFL-worst five-game losing streak right now. You say how well-coached they are once they get into scoring situations, as only the 49ers convert a higher percentage than these guys in the red-zone (71.1%) on offense and only the Ravens hold opponents to a lower rate defensively (47.2%). However, the issue for them is what happens between the 20s. A couple of big Taysom Hill scrambles – really the only positive thing he did last Thursday – pushed them up a little bit, but they’re still right at the bottom-five in explosive plays offensively, and they’ve turned the ball over ten times over the course of that losing stretch. The defense is still elite at stopping the run, giving up a league-low 3.6 yards per carry, but teams have been able to take advantage of all their man-coverage recently, with good route spacing and attacking leverages, while getting exhausted from opponents being put in good position from offensive turnovers.

28. Chicago Bears (4-8)

So, how is everybody enjoying the Andy Dalton experience? Since he took over for rookie Justin Fields, Chicago has scored 13 and 14 points over their next two games, before they were actually in catch-up mode this past Sunday against the Cardinals, and he tossed four picks. For some reason, the defense usually seems to step up, but this is really is just a season to find out about their quarterback of the future and what they need to put around him – and the two things that stand out most are an offensive coordinator, who understands how to stress defenses with more complete play-calling, and help at those tackle spots, as they’ve surrendered the second-most sacks (40) on the season. The defense has pieces to build around, and I like Sean Desai’s background, who could well survive a big blow-up of the front-office, since he’s been on staff for nine years and three different head coaches now. They’re fairly average across the board on that side of the ball and need reinforcements from a personnel perspective and a little more versatility schematically, although with opponents starting at their own 32-yard line on average (third-worst) certainly doesn’t help. I just hope we get Justin Fields versus Aaron Rodgers, which could have been a close matchup, if not for a couple of really bad breaks.