NFL Power Rankings heading into the fourth quarter of the 2021 season

29. New York Jets (3-9)

Really, when I look at the numbers and the lows they have had as a team, you argue the Jets could be at the very bottom of the list, but they’ve, somehow, won three games, which include two playoff teams in the Titans and Bengals, along with the team I actually do have at number 32. Still, Gang Green has turned the ball over an NFL-high 25 times, and only the Jaguars have taken it away fewer than their nine times, giving them the worst differential in the league (-16). Zach Wilson has had a couple of moments of where he’s impressed with some big-time throws, even though bad turnovers are routinely sprinkled in, while having found long-term solutions with rookies Michael Carter Jr. and Elijah Moore. The bigger issue has been their defense, which has been in a league of their own with how bad they’ve been statistically, basically giving up a field goal more per game than the next-closest team and also being at the bottom of the list with 6.1 yards surrendered per play. They can’t stop the run or pass to any capacity for the most part, which will be the top priority for Robert Salah to fix – assuming they give him another year – along with securing the O-line, since Zach is pressured at a league-high rate (30.2%).

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

Safe to say Urban Meyer “the program builder” won’t be able to turn this franchise around as quickly as he did at his college stops – assuming ownership is fine with letting him continue to represent the organization. I expected this defense to struggle, due to all the new pieces they tried to throw out there, as they rank dead-last with just six takeaways (three less than the next-closest team), as well as missed tackles (90), and are in the high twenties largely across the board. The real concern for me is this offense they have tried to build around first overall pick Trevor Lawrence. I've said that he was coming from a very simplistic, college-y offense and that there could be some early struggles, but with some of the special downfield throws he’s made and James Robinson averaging a tick below five yards per carry, there is no reason that only their division-rivals in the Texans should score less than their 15 points per game, who they actually lost to by multiple scores in the season-opener, and then in one of their wins (against Buffalo), they actually didn’t even crack double-digit points. He doesn’t seem to be getting developed accordingly, and they give their opponents too many extra possessions, as they’re just one better than the Jets -16 in turnover plus/minus.

31. Detroit Lions (1-10-1)

Let me tell you – I don’t think I’ve ever been as happy for a team winning, which I have no rooting interest in any way, as I was on Sunday, when I saw the sideline go nuts in Detroit. They had three games coming Sunday, in which they lost on a walk-off field goal, and another one, where they had the chance to kick one in overtime against the Steelers. Overall, they’ve only lost three games by more than ten points and have been underdogs by a touchdown or more almost every week, following their opener. So to go through all that grind on a weekly basis and never be able to actually come into work on Monday off a win has to be exhausting, and this was well-deserved. And considering how well they’ve played in many other contests, they don’t deserve to be at the very bottom of the list. With that being said, they’re still not a very good team. I think they're set to become one of the top rushing offenses next season, when they have the whole O-line and D’Andre Swift all fully healthy, but what’s making them hard to watch is Jared Goff ranking dead-last among starters in average intended air yards in yards to the sticks, which is where the offense also ranks in third-down efficiency as a whole (31.5%). Defensively, they can stop the run fairly well, but the back-seven is just awful in coverage, allowing a league-high 7.5 yards per dropback, which for reference is half a yard more than the number one passing offense in DVOA – the Bucs – average.

32. Houston Texans (2-10)

I mean, this is not surprising, considering the Texans had the lowest projected win total coming into the season and hasn’t had their starting quarterback for about half the season, but we saw them win by multiple scores against the Jaguars in week one and then be competitive in quite a few games, before pulling off the upset over the AFC South-leading Titans in a let-down spot for that group. However, in the six other games they’ve had against winning teams currently, they’ve been outscored 197-63. And they just became the first team that’s already eliminated, following a 31-0 beatdown at the hands of the Colts, thanks to the AFC having a more competitive field of Wild Card contenders. Similar to what I mentioned with the Jets defensively, Houston is kind of in a league of their own with how pathetic they’ve been on offense, averaging 0.4 yards less per play and 1.3 points per game than the number 31 in those categories, to go with a league-low 30 plays of 20+ yards on the year, while having combined for less than 450 total yards over these last three games, since their bye week. The defense has been much more competitive, where they actually surrender points on a lower percentage of drives against them (41.2%, which is tied for 23rd) and actually rank seventh in the league with 21 turnovers forced. Still, now that we have them even being out of it mathematically, motivation might be at an all-time low.

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