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Patriots offence vs Rams defence
As teams have gone to a more wide open approach on offence and adopted all these college plays, New England has gone back in time to where people lined up in 21 personnel and ran it down the throat of opposing defences.
Centre David Andrews has the agility to reach nose-tackles and shed 1-techniques in their zone run game and Shaq Mason just squashes interior D-linemen on those combo-blocks, which makes it very easy for his teammates to control blocks. Both of them and left guard Joe Thuney are also agile enough to shield off linebackers.
James Develin buries second level defenders constantly and barely ever misses a block, which will be a problem against the Rams small linebackers. Unlike most teams that have minimal packages out of those personnel sets, the Patriots fullback doesn’t always indicate where the run is going towards. They let him block the backside linebacker or trap defensive tackles to go with those basic ISO schemes.
The Gronk Effect
Tight-end Rob Gronkowski has been a huge factor these last two weeks not necessarily as a pass-catcher, even though he had some big-time grabs on third downs versus Kansas City, but more so as a run-blocker. New England has put him in motion and then run those off-tackle type plays right behind time and time again in the AFC Championship game, because of the movement he creates at the point of attack. Josh McDaniels also likes to bring Cordarrelle Patterson and others in motion to fake the jet sweep one way and then flip it to the other back, once he has established them as a threat on the edges.
Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald
Ndamukong Suh has been a mad man recently in the middle of that Rams defence. We talked about it last week when we mentioned him as an X-factor, that he somewhat took the regular season off, but has turned into a different beast in the playoffs. Earlier in the year, the Rams fielded one of the worst rush defences in the league, in large part due to how far upfield their defensive line got.
When you have guys like Suh and Aaron Donald you want them to wreak havoc in the backfield, but at some point that opens up running lanes and when you face teams that can really get it done with their power run attack, this can create major problems for your linebackers.
Towards the end of the year and now the postseason they have become more disciplined with their gap integrity and slowed down some of the top running teams. Suh and Michael Brockers can really slow things on the play-side, allowing Donald to be himself and go backdoor against those plays with quickness.
The Rams completely bottled up Ezekiel Elliott for 47 yards on 20 attempts in the Divisional Round versus the Cowboys and then held the Saints dynamic duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to 46 yards on the ground on 17 rushes.
However, not only can the Patriots screw those responsibilities up when they motion Gronk across the O-line as they did against KC, that rushing attack brings another danger with it because New England has some of the best-run fakes to set up play-action.
Unlike a lot of teams that simply let their quarterback and running back fake the handoff and have the offensive line take one step up, those guys really focus on selling the run with their O-line. That front is aggressive with their first few steps and heavily include pulling guards in their protection concepts to throw defences off.
We will get more into what the Rams might want to do at the backfield in the next paragraph, but no matter which coverage they play, there will be some defenders in zone that at least need to hesitate if not step up once they see that kind of looks. The Pats’ rushing attack is too strong for them not to ask their defensive backs to support the run, especially when there are only one of two actual receivers on the field because they line up in heavy personnel.
New England might not have an established burner on the perimeter, but you better believe they will push the ball downfield to maybe a Phillip Dorsett, or at the very least use that space over the middle when linebackers are forced to step up.
LA's secondary
We know the Rams pass defence has not lived up to what people expected when they heard about the additions of Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters and we even questioned some of the things they did coverage-wise, but we think at this point their secondary might be underrated.
Wade Phillips simplified some of the things they did and with Talib back in the lineup, everybody else has played their role better. There are some points that they absolutely have to accomplish in that unit to have success against Brady and company. In crucial situations, especially third-and-medium, disrupting the timing of the Pats’ passing game is a must, of they will pick you apart.
To counter that McDaniels draws up all those versions of rub-concepts, which punished the Chiefs when they did decide to man up. You have to kind of pick your poison with down-and-distances and how you think you can answer their alignments. We've already mentioned that we like how Wade simplified what the Rams do on the back-end, but in this specific matchup, he might have to be a little more creative with how they pass on assignments and drop into their spots.
You might want to assign sides when you face receiver stacks instead of men, to avoid being run off and show man-coverage on the opposite side to fool Brady a little bit. The defenders can be aggressive in those medium-yardage situations because you know the ball will come out quickly and you can undercut some routes early on.
We're definitely not saying you can’t play zone against the Patriots, as long as you have a beat on what they are trying to do situationally, but we have seen what Brady has done against those soft zone coverages in these playoffs and his skill players are less dynamic than they have ever been to win one-on-ones.
The matchup to watch in the passing game when New England possesses the ball will be the Patriots running backs against the Rams linebackers and possibly safeties. Alvin Kamara caught 11 passes for almost a hundred yards in the NFC Championship game against Los Angeles.
The Saints spread the Rams out a lot, which left Mark Barron one-on-one with the dynamic dual-threat running back for the most part. Barron is a converted safety, but he could still not stay with Kamara coming out of the backfield or in the slot and neither could Cory Littleton, when he was tasked with the dual-threat back.
James White's aerial threat
Not only is it the screen game – nobody throws the ball underneath to his backs more than Brady. James White already broke a Super Bowl record for all players with 14 catches for 110 yards, he even topped that mark by one to tie Darren Sproles’ all-time mark of 15 in any playoff game when the Patriots destroyed the Chargers in the Divisional Round.
That game showed once again that Brady is selfless as he simply got it to White on simple flat routes constantly to take advantage of the soft zone coverages. We talked Rex Burkhead as an X-factor last week because of the obvious run-pass splits between White and Sony Michel – and the third guy didn’t disappoint. He gives them more balance and can also be a mismatch in the passing game. The Rams need to have a plan to take away some of those easy completions and force Brady to go outside the numbers.
Outside of that, some of the personnel matchups Los Angeles can present in this game are positive. Up front they like to line Suh and Donald up on the same side a lot of times, with Suh on the edge, making it borderline impossible to double them both in true shotgun passing situations.
Donald took advantage of a banged up Andrus Peat and beat him with a quick-swim off the line a couple of times. Joe Thuney and Shaq Mason are pretty agile, but they have yet to face anybody like the Rams’ number 99. He does some unique stuff nobody else in the NFL even thinks of, such as spinning off inside a pulling guard, let us not assume he will be successful doing that against the Pats, but there will definitely be an adjustment period for that interior offensive line.
And if they did draw something up to use their backs and tight-ends or slide the protection that way, Dante Fowler could make an impact, because he has emerged as a true threat off the edge for L.A. As far as their cover-guys go, the only defensive back on the Rams’ roster beyond six feet is Talib. Lamarcus Joyner typically is the guy they want to drop down into the slot when they man up, but at 5’8” we don’t see how they match him up against a huge guy in Gronkowski.
The Patriots primarily used the tight-end as an in-line blocker against the Chiefs until they needed him to make a play late and realised that Eric Berry would travel outside with him, coming off a torn Achilles. We're curious to see if Phillips decides to treat Gronk like a wide receiver when he plays detached from the line and tells Talib to shadow him in those passing situations.
While that leaves opportunities for some other guys from the Patriots, we would be willing to take that risk because I think Talib is still a good matchup for them here, especially with Gronk losing a gear.
If not for a batted ball on the first play of overtime by Brockers, the Saints might have gone down the field right away on them and that was something the Patriots might be able to take advantage of. New Orleans was in a three-by-one set and brought the wideout in a short motion and let him run a drive route to go with a couple of verticals.
Marcus Peters and Robey-Coleman communicated a switch of responsibilities expecting something breaking inside, but Robey-Coleman didn’t chase after the crosser and left him wide open. It’s not only that play though – the nickelback was very lucky in that game.
Not only did he commit that infamous no-call pass interference, but he was also was leaning after Michael Thomas on the goal-line and basically gave up a touchdown if not for a terribly underthrown ball by Brees. Plus another receiver made him look better on a flat-out drop.
Edelman's postseason performance
Definitely, don’t expect him to have the upper hand against Julian Edelman in the slot, because the second-leading receiver in playoff history might not threaten him deep, but he still has a lot of short-area quickness to create separation out of his break and the ball comes out of Brady’s hand as soon as number 11 snaps his head back towards him.
The Rams will need to use an additional defender to drop underneath him to take the pressure off whoever is covering him by limiting that guy’s responsibility to just one side laterally.
With the way the Patriots game-plan and always have a trick up their sleeves, it is hard to really to really prepare for some looks and limit the possibilities they have from those, but one of the tendencies from the Patriots offence you might be able to pick up on is when they motion their tailback from I-formation into the slot or out wide.
That leaves Develin as the lone guy in the backfield and while we can guarantee you that they will run him in short-yardage and goal-line situations if they like the look they get, for the most part, they don’t want to have him carry the ball on base downs, but rather they use your stacked box against you with shallow crossers and other quickly developing routes.
Taking my chances with Talib one-on-one with Gronk and focusing on Edelman when it comes to third downs might be the path to follow for LA. The Chiefs were catastrophic against Brady’s favourite target on the overtime drive, allowing consecutive conversions to him on third-and-10, including a miscommunication on one of those switches from a receiver stack, in addition to another two in the first half.
Using one of your DBs to cover the Patriots back in obvious passing situations if they don’t bring any blitzes is very good. This offence is too versatile to limit everything they do, but the Rams will have to start somewhere and just take away a couple of areas, while not being afraid to be aggressive with their defensive play-calling.
How aggressive New England are on early downs will be interesting to see, because while they have primarily become a run-based offence, they also like to come out with more open sets and pick at you with quick underneath passes inside the numbers, flat and swing routes to their backs with the receivers to that side clearing out space or with pass-catchers in tight splits breaking towards the sideline.
Even when they give opponents obvious run looks, they can still work in some of their staples in the passing game and eat up your base sets as you focus on the run. Not only the way they draw up different drives and possibly go no-huddle to tire out a defensive front that lacks some depth could catch L.A. off guard, New England also surprises a lot of their opponents with the play-calling they choose in specific situations.
They converted three third downs running the ball from shotgun on their initial two drives of the AFC Championship game, with two of them having four yards to go, because unlike most teams that look at those spots as pure passing downs, they say “you don’t have the personnel or alignment out there to stop us and we have any guys to block everybody in the box”. In addition to that, they have one of the most versatile screen games in the NFL.
They don’t just swing out to their playmakers in space, because that’s not the strength of their offence, but they fake bubble screens, show multiple handoffs and sometimes actually fake the screen to one back and then get it to the other. The difference to most teams when it comes to that aspect is that they often leave their offensive tackles in protection on the play-side instead of letting the rusher get through and lobbing it over that guy’s head.
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