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With Taysom Hill leading the New Orleans Saints with a battered, bruised, and broken Drew Brees injured, they easily handled the Falcons and odds, covering the 4.5 point spread. The two other week 11 picks, however, were less successful. Tua Tagovailoa was pulled in the final quarter of the Dolphins' abysmal offensive performance against the Broncos and the Vikings and Cowboys game became a shootout.
Last week:
- New Orleans Saints -4.5 vs Atlanta Falcons (Odds: -115) WIN
- Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs Denver Broncos (Odds: -104) LOSS
- Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs Denver Broncos (Odds: -110) LOSS
Season record: 3-3
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3. Pittsburgh Steelers -4 vs Baltimore Ravens (Odds: -110)
The Steelers have plowed through one of the lightest schedules in the league this year, a large factor in why they are the NFL's only undefeated team. But for a 10-0 team to be only a four point favorite against a team in as much chaos and injury troubles as the Ravens, those odds are too good to pass up. The fact that this game, which was supposed to be played Thursday, has been moved to Sunday, drawing the rage of several Steelers players, is only extra motivation.
Though the Ravens are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games as an underdog, their injuries to key players such as Ronnie Stanley and the COVID-19 induced mayhem surrounding the team will prevent them from upsetting the odds or covering the line on Sunday (or whenever the game gets played).
Key stat: The Steelers are 8-2 against the spread in 2020
2. Las Vegas Raiders -3 vs Atlanta Falcons (Odds: -104)
The Raiders are 7-3 against the spread this season, the second-best record in the NFL behind only the Steelers. While pundits, metrics and betting lines all regularly discount Jon Gruden's squad, his team regularly overperforms. They are still the only team to beat the Kansas City Chiefs this year — almost did it again last week — and will easily handle the Falcons in week 12.
The Falcons have disappointed all season and were trampled by Taysom Hill and the injured Saints last week. While this could be a bounce-back spot for them, I expect Gruden's defense to come prepared.
Key stat: The Raiders are 6-1 against the spread in recent road games
1. Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts UNDER 51.5 (Odds: -108)
Though the Titans +3 is an enticing line this week — I even considered picking Tennessee money line — the Colts have owned this matchup in recent seasons, and are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
But the more intriguing odds for his matchup was the total, 51.5. Though Indy and Tennessee are the ninth and 10th highest scoring offenses in the NFL, both scoring just over 27 points per game, their defenses match up against each other perfectly. The Colts have the third-best rushing defense in the league, allowing just over 89 rushing yards per game against. The Colts defense should be able to hold Derrick Henry at bay, and if the Titans are going to win — and the score is going to top over 50 — the ball will have to be in Ryan Tannehill's hands.
Key stat: Indianapolis allows just 89 rushing yards per game
