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In a week filled with positive COVID-19 tests, cancellations, and teams playing without quarterbacks, the results were, naturally, all over the place. What presented as favorable odds in the Raiders-3 and Titans/Colts UNDER ended up being major losses, but nabbing the Steelers -4 (prior to the three delays and dozens of positive tests) was some of the best value on the season as the line closed for Wednesday's game at Pittsburgh -10.5.
Last week:
- Pittsburgh Steelers -4 vs Baltimore Ravens (Odds: -110) WIN
- Las Vegas Raiders -3 vs Atlanta Falcons (Odds: -104) LOSS
- Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts UNDER 51.5 (Odds: -108) LOSS
Season record: 4-5
3. Detroit Lions +3 vs Chicago Bears (Odds: 1-6)
The Bears and Lions are both in dissaray, floating in mediocrity with their 2020 playoff hopes largely dashed. But this week, the Lions have something to play for.
Lions coach Matt Patricia and General Manager Bob Quinn were both fired after the teams Thanksgiving loss last week, and it seemed many Lions players would like to prove they were the problem. Multiple former Lions spoke out when Patricia and Quinn were let go, saying the former coach threatened to take their careers away and the GM lit a fire under them.
With a healthy De'Andre Swift and Matt Stafford, the Lions motivication should be the difference maker. With such a close line, it may even be worth it to take Lions moneyline in this one.
Key stat: The Lions are +138 moneyline underdogs
2. New Orleans Saints -3 vs Atlanta Falcons (Odds: -102)
I was burned taking the Falcons opponent -3 last week, but lets give it another shot.
This line doesn't make much sense. Yes the Saints are without Drew Brees, and sure the Falcons just beat up on the Las Vegas Raiders to the tune of a 37-point victory, but the Saints are going to win this game by more than a field goal. In Taysom Hill's first start, two weeks ago, the Saints defense held Atlanta to nine points and New Orleans won by 15 and I see no reason why this week's matchup won't end in similar fashion.
Key stat: The Saints are 11-1 in their last 12 road games
1. Los Angeles Chargers +1 vs New England Patriots (Odds: -110)
The Chargers are 3-8, but they are yet to lose a game by more than 10 points in 2020. Rookie QB Justin Herbert is a likely lock for Rookie of the Year, and the Chargers offense got Austin Ekeler back for the first time in weeks, but this pick is more about what the Patriots can't do than what the Chargers can, and the odds don't reflect that.
Cam Newton completed nine passes in the Patriots win over the Cardinals last week, and New England hasn't broken 23 points against a non-Jets team since week 3. If Herbert, Ekeler and Keenan Allen can put any significant amount of points on the board, this game is theirs for the taking.
Key stat: Justin Herbert is on pace to break the NFL rookie records for touchdown passes (27) and passing yards (4,374)
