Who will be named 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?

With the 2022 NFL season finally about to kick off, it's time to analyze which top players will shine. One of the most prestigious individual awards for rookie players is to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Last year, Ja'Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals won the award after an incredible season. In the 2021 NFL campaign, Chase recorded 1,455 receiving yards and 13 receiving touchdowns.

Predicting how rookies will adapt to the NFL is tough but enjoyable. With so many factors to analyze and so many great new talents, it wasn't easy to reduce the list to three. Here are my top three candidates to take home Offensive Rookie of the Year honors this upcoming season:

#1. Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Preseason - Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Skyy Moore

Some people may think I’m weird for going with somebody who, by the belief of Kansas City beat reporters won’t actually be a starter (in 11 personnel) for his team. Still, I believe second-round pick Skyy Moore might lead all of their receivers in yardage, because of what role he could quickly carve out for himself.

It will be a group effort to replace Tyreek Hill’s production for the Kansas City Chiefs in the upcoming NFL season. Not only should we see them morph into more power-slot centric concepts with Juju Smith-Schuster, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling's speed will be used as a vertical and horizontal stretch element.

In terms of what Hill’s usage was in 2021 particularly, Moore is the closest thing they have to that. Unlike popular belief, Tyreek wasn’t just this deep ball specialist. Just over 40% of his scrimmage yards over the last two years were produced with the ball in his hands and his slot rate was right around there too.

That matches extremely well with what Skyy Moore did at Western Michigan. He has more of that stocky build to work the middle of the field, he led all draft-eligible receivers with 26 missed tackles last year. He also has a great burst off the line combined with the largest hands from this draft class. Moore can deliver explosive plays that way too.

#2. Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans

NFL Preseason - Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce

Next up is a guy who was already treated like a starter in the preseason by his team. The Houston Texans pulled him out of games early after he showed his skills in limited live action. They even kept him out of the second contest without an injury designation. That’s almost hard to believe for people who do understand how those snaps are typically distributed, but don’t really know Dameon Pierce as anything but a fourth-round rookie.

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He was heavily underutilized in Florida, but his efficiency was off the charts. He scored on 16 of his 119 touches as a senior and averaged 6.2 yards every time the ball was put in his hands. To me, he can be a legit three-down back in this league, thanks to his physicality and foot quickness as a runner, his skills as a receiver and the ability to stun blitzers in pass-pro.

Considering the Texans will likely feature him in a major way and the improvements on their O-line, I expect Pierce to put up big numbers for a team that just waived Marlon Mack (and then added him back to their practice squad).

#3. Breece Hall, New York Jets

NFL Preseason - New York Jets v Philadelphia Eagles

Finally, the Breece Hall hype train has seen a bit of a damper, considering he’s not listed as the official starter in New York. I still believe he could have a big debut year in the NFL. I understand the respect shown to Michael Carter Jr., because of what he showed in limited action as a rookie, but he’s also best in a two-headed backfield, paired with a more physical runner.

Hall profiles as that guy for the New York Jets, weighing in at 220 pounds. He has forced the most missed tackles since the start of the 2020 college season (128) and has been a very effective short-yardage runner. That’s along with being an above 90th-percentile athlete, with tremendous short-area quickness and several break-away runs thanks to that 4.39 speed.

Hall will fit perfectly in Mike LaFleur’s wide-zone based rushing attack, behind an O-line that all of a sudden has proven studs across it. They have the receivers to punish defenses for playing man-coverage and a quarterback in Zach Wilson who I believe will scare opponents with the big throws he can make off play-action. I just think even if Carter does play more of the passing downs, Hall could rush for around 1,200 yards for an improved Jets team. After all, Robert Saleh has to get the troops going in year two.

If you enjoyed this breakdown, please make sure to check out the original piece, where I also predict all the other awards and the playoff picture, leading up to Super Bowl LVII.