Ranking all 32 NFL quarterbacks after Week 8

The quarterback position has always been the most discussed in football. Often times, it’s hard for casual fans to decipher how good these players actually are, with opinions based on raw numbers and team success, rather than evaluating the QB’s play specifically.

Eight weeks into the 2022-23 season, I've decided to rank the starters for all 32 teams. While statistics will play a large role in determining where to rank some of these players, evaluating the tape will be the most important factor.

For this exercise, I had to consider the surrounding pieces (skill-position players and offensive line), the advantages delivered by play-calling, and what these quarterbacks are asked to execute.

On that note, here’s a ranking of the 32 starting QBs in the NFL:

In their own stratosphere

There are two players in the NFL right now that stand above the rest -- Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. They can pick defenses apart from within the structure of their offense and methodically work their way down the field, whilst also creating huge plays individually.

#1 Josh Allen

The one time we’ve seen them go blow for blow against one another, Allen won the battle as Mahomes ended the day with a pick. That was the deciding factor that put the Buffalo Bills QB at the top of this list.

If I had to make a case for the Bills QB otherwise, I’d say how efficient he’s become at playing “on time”, along with the dimensions he presents as a runner. He's capable of beating angles to the sideline, running through a linebacker or hurdling guys on the back-end, making him a slightly different beast than his biggest AFC rival.

He obviously has the firepower to blow out opposing teams, but has also delivered in crunch moments and has brought his team back to wins in close contests.

Allen is top three across the board for positional statistics, most importantly leading the league with 21 total touchdowns responsible for. We saw him toss a couple of bad picks in the second half versus the Packers on Sunday, but they've been few and far between and outweighed by several improbable plays he’s created.

#2 Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes is right up there with Allen at the mountain top. He has put 40-burgers on the Cardinals, Bucs and 49ers – the latter two being top-three in defensive DVOA before entering those matchups.

Mahomes is the most creative player at the quarterback position we’ve maybe ever seen. Kansas City runs so many concepts that are designed for him to have secondary throwing windows and the ability to allow routes to convert as he’s buying extra time.

He’s now become hyper-efficient at working those underneath areas with Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster if teams sit back in two-high shells. But if defenses try to cheat or don’t respect the vertical stretch elements of their patterns, he can punish them in a major way.

Right now, he’s number two in EPA (expected points added) per play, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa (+0.366), while leading the league with a TD percentage of 7.6% (20 total). The craziest stat for him – Mahomes has converted 60.9% of his pass attempts on third-and-eight plus – the next-closest guy is at 41.7%.

MVP-level players

There are three other names capable of ascending to the top tier and winning an MVP award. One of them has actually taken home the honor before and is at least very close to that form. Another dragged his team to the Super Bowl in a crowded AFC last season, while being on a heater yet again. Finally, there’s one guy who has the talent to keep climbing.

#3 Lamar Jackson

In a hypothetical world where quarterbacks aren't allowed to run, Lamar would still be top-10, because of how much more proficient he has become at making pre-snap reads, attacking voids in zone coverage, as well as picking apart blitzes.

He’s fourth in the league with 15 passing touchdowns and his offense is currently number two in DVOA, despite not nearly having run the ball as effectively as they’ve done in the past.

Their combination of four/five backs has combined for just 710 yards on 150 attempts. Lamar has 553 himself – only five yards away from the top-10 among all NFL players, and he’s number one overall with 7.4 yards per attempt.

Last year's first-round pick Rashod Bateman has really only played four full games and the only wide receiver with over 150 yards right now is Devin Duvernay. You can argue Jackson is the most crucial piece on any offense in the league.

The only concern here has been the Ravens’ inability to maintain second-half leads, having been up by double-digits in all three of their losses. The defense has been the larger issue in that regard.

#4 Joe Burrow

I flipped numbers three and four around following the Bengals' disappointing 32-13 loss to the Browns on Monday.

Burrow was arguably as hot as any other quarterback in the league coming into that matchup, having combined for nearly 800 yards, along with three touchdowns and no picks in each of the previous two games.

All of a sudden, he had multiple turnovers for the first time since the season-opener, when he threw four picks against the Steelers.

It’s certainly not all on him, considering he didn’t have Ja’Marr Chase and the O-line has continued to put their QB under fire. Only Justin Fields has been sacked more than Burrow’s 29 times so far this season, which is concerning, considering the Bengals were dead-last in that statistic last season (51) and thought they had fixed that unit during the offseason.

Previously, I had been encouraged by the way Cincinnati had allowed Burrow to see the entire field, going almost exclusively to shotgun and spread formations, where his ability to quickly work through progressions and take perimeter shots made him look like an MVP candidate.

#5 Justin Herbert

I truly believe Herbert could be right up there with Allen and Mahomes. Yet, he is currently tied for 31st, throwing the ball exactly two yards short of the sticks on average, and 32nd in overall intended air yards per attempt at 6.3.

Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is shackling Herbert with the structure of his passing offense, treating him like he were a 40-year-old Drew Brees almost. When that mid-game script is thrown out of the window, we’ve seen Herbert make some unbelievable throws, at times with his ribcage feeling like it may burst any second.

However, playing in an offense that has only rushed for 82+ yards once this season and considering how compressed things feel every time he drops back, Herbert has started to regress in terms of field vision to some degree.

Some limitations

There’s certainly a separation between the top five and this tier. They’re all clearly established starters and, in the right situation, can put up the numbers to receive some attention from Associated Press voters.

However, there are limiting factors for each of them, whether that’s based on physical ability, mentality capacity or a combination of the two. All but one of them is leading a team that has won at least five games. So they have been able to convert individual into team success.

#6 Jalen Hurts

Pittsburgh Steelers v Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts' ability to run to the RPO-heavy Philly offense effectively, the deep balls he has delivered to keep defenses from playing one-on-one on the perimeter, and his physicality as a runner are major factors as to why this group is still undefeated.

With that being said, we have to be honest with how much of his production comes off quasi lay-ups, hitting glance routes with a linebacker having to step up against the run look or somebody wide open in the flats as he pulls the ball. He’s also not being asked to execute a whole lot of multi-faceted reads.

Hurts is top-five in yards per attempt (8.5), passer rating (105.1) and total touchdowns responsible for (16). He’s a tremendous fit for this team, but he may not have the same level of success elsewhere.

#7 Dak Prescott

Dak didn't really set the NFL alight on his return versus the Lions, when the offense heavily relied on its two-headed backfield. However, he looked great this past Sunday versus Chicago, ripping isolation throws off pre-snap reads, working through progressions and having a couple of nice designed runs.

Over the last two weeks, Dak has been under center and used play-action (48.2% percent of dropbacks) at the second-highest rate in the league. It's impressive to see what he provides in terms of attacking down the field after turning his back to the defense, as well as his ability to throw on the run off bootlegs.

Yet, when they do spread things out, he’s also excellent at finding solutions against the blitz and attacking leverage against zone-defenders. The sample size is much smaller than anybody else’s outside of a few names at the very bottom, but if Dak can play at this level, the Cowboys could embark on a deep postseason run.

#8 Tua Tagovailoa

The Dolphins are a much better team with Tua on the field. His energy coming back for the Sunday game versus the Steelers was palpable, and he’s done a very good job running Mike McDaniel’s system.

He’s currently number one in the NFL in passer rating (112.7), QBR (78.7) and EPA per play (+0.371). His speed in getting the ball out to where his receivers can create yards after the catch, his anticipatory skills, his elusiveness inside the pocket and his toughness are all top-tier.

However, his arm strength does limit the areas of the field the Dolphins can consistently threaten and he’s not a special athlete or “play-creator”. Down the field, he hasn’t allowed those speedster receivers to maximize plays all the time and Tyreek Hill in particular has bailed him out on several occasions.

#9 Kyler Murray

There’s been a lot of criticism leveled at Kyler Murray and how inconsistent the Arizona offense has been. However, he hasn't received a ton of help schematically.

Kliff Kingsbury has finally shown some adaptability since the return of DeAndre Hopkins, but other than that, it’s been a whole lot of basic Air Raid concepts, where Murray has had to run around and make something happen.

With a reliable number one receiver to work the basic route tree and some opportunities to make great isolation throws down the field, he can really make things happen. He is also great at extending and creating secondary plays.

Murray is currently 20th in EPA per play (+0.023), but that’s in part due to having the 30th-ranked intended air yards per pass attempt (6.6). Moreover, he leads Arizona in rushing yards (299 on 5.9 yards per attempt).

#10 Geno Smith

One quarterback nobody expected to be in the top-10 is Geno Smith. He was in a quarterback competition with Drew Lock this summer and now he’s playing at a higher level than a bunch of guys typically associated with the pinnacle of the position.

At this moment, Geno is ranked number seven in EPA per play (+0.159) and easily leads the league in completion percentage (72.7%), despite being tied for 10th among starters with 8.1 intended yards per pass attempt.

So he delivers big plays through the air, while only having turned the ball over four times. Whether it’s taking deep shots off play-action from heavy sets or working some quick game elements when they do spread the field, he’s done it all for a Seahawks team that decided they were ready to trade away Russell Wilson.

Let’s not overlook what Geno has done when he’s needed to take off as a runner. He currently leads the league with 9.9 yards per scramble among quarterbacks with at least three of those attempts.

#11 Kirk Cousins

The final name in this group is one who consistently puts up good numbers, but seemingly nobody wants to talk about. That's understandable because Cousins isn’t doing a whole lot of special stuff.

Right now, he’s smack average with the 16th-best EPA per play (+0.053) and the Vikings are just outside the top-10 in DVOA offensively (5.9%), despite all the talent around the quarterback.

He doesn’t really give you anything out of structure and he seems to crumble at times under pressure. With that being said, if Kirk is protected and has a clear picture in front of him, he can read the field and deliver the ball accurately better than most guys around the league.

He’s number one in on-target percentage of throws (81.8%), according to Pro Football Reference, and if you take away a really bad showing in week two at Philly, he’s been responsible for 12 touchdowns compared to only three turnovers.

Showing their age

This is a bit of a sad tier, because as of the end of this past season, all three of these men were universally accepted as tier one or two names. However, there’s a major flaw with each of them right now, that deservedly drops them down the list.

For one of them, it’s a lack of urgency to put defenses on their heels with attacking down the field, while for another it’s the sudden inability to consistently drive his offense down the field. For the final one, turnovers remain a huge issue, but in a more hurtful fashion than last season, due to big plays not outweighing those.

#12 Aaron Rodgers

Green Bay Packers v Washington Commanders

First and foremost, I don’t believe there’s been a major decline physically with Rodgers that pushes him all the way down here, after winning back-to-back MVP awards.

His movement to avoid pressure isn’t quite the same anymore, but we just saw him uncork a laser to Samori Toure at the end of the Sunday Night game at Buffalo that went 50 yards through the air without any wobble to it.

However, the fact that he has to rely on this seventh-round pick to ad-lib for a secondary route is indicative of the trust issues he’s had with the rest of this young receiving corp. Plus, they’ve had had some issues in protection.

Still, Rodgers himself has shown an unwillingness to read the field and deliver to his targets bound to break open. It’s all quick game and RPOs, along with a couple of pre-determined vertical shots one-on-one.

He’s currently 23rd among starters and on pace for finishing with a negative mark in EPA per play for the first time in his career (-0.011).

Two bright spots, Rodgers is behind only Kirk Cousins in on-target percentage of throws (81.1%), and he has the best passer rating in the red-zone among NFL quarterbacks (127.1).

#13 Tom Brady

Raw quarterback numbers would put Brady above Rodgers, but it's clear from game footage that the Tampa Bay QB is nowhere near his usual standards.

Ranking dead-last in average yards per rush as a team (3.0) certainly plays a part in this, but the Bucs have averaged the eighth-fewest points per drive this season and Brady hasn’t been the killer we’ve seen for the majority of his career.

So far, he’s only converted 32% of third-down attempts as a passer and they’ve been dreadful on third-and-eight plus, going 5-of-39 through the air.

Brady himself has only one interception so far, but he’s also had a couple more go off the finger-tips of defenders and he’s taken a couple of sacks on got-to-have-it downs, instead of risking throws into traffic.

Other than the matchup with the Chiefs, where they were down by 18 points at the two-minute warning of the first half and got much of their production in quasi garbage time, Tampa hasn’t scored more than 21 points in any game.

#14 Matthew Stafford

Stafford isn’t as old as the other two guys, but his lengthy injury history is starting to show and the reigning Super Bowl champs have been tough to watch on offense for most of the season.

At the moment, Stafford is 29th overall among quarterbacks in EPA per play (-0.067), with three backups in front of him. What’s really sad is the fact that considering he finished third last season in explosive pass plays (20+ yard completions), he’s now at 35th with just 6.0 intended air yards per pass attempt. Only Matt Ryan, who has been benched by the Indianapolis Colts, has thrown more interceptions than Stafford's eight.

Once again, the run game has left a lot to be desired (ahead of only the Bucs with 3.3 yards per carry), and there’s no way we can overlook the fact that Stafford has already been sacked 24 times through seven games, when that number was at 30 for all of 2021 (in 17 contests).

He does have the second-highest completion percentage among starters (70.5%) and can still deliver some big-time throws though.

Mendoza line

This is a concept the “Around The NFL” crew started using about a decade ago. Adapted from a baseball batting average, it signifies a line below which teams should be looking to replace their starter.

If I had to create separation within this four-name tier, I’d say the top two guys are above that line, while the latter couple of names, I wouldn’t invest heavily into building a team around.

#15 Ryan Tannehill

Talk about a quarterback who can rely on the ground game. In the one game Tannehill wasn’t available for this past Sunday, the Titans were able to win despite rookie backup Malik Willis only attempting – and not completing – one pass in the second half.

That doesn’t mean Tannehill hasn’t done his job pretty well. Taking out a Monday Night matchup from week two, when they ran into a buzzsaw with the Bills and Tannehill was intercepted twice, he has only thrown one pick compared to the seven touchdowns he’s accounted for.

Moreover, 11.6% of his passes have gone for 20+ yards. That’s despite Robert Woods being the only player on the team with at least 150 receiving yards and Justin Fields being the only guy pressured at a higher rate across the NFL (29.3%).

A big reason Tennessee is sitting at 5-2 right now is the fact they’ve gotten into the end-zone on 13 of 17 red-zone trips. Tannehill has the second-best passer rating in that area among NFL quarterbacks behind only Aaron Rodgers (121.9).

#16 Derek Carr

It’s not easy to come away with a lot of positives for the quarterback of a team that just laid a goose-egg on Sunday.

Carr has certainly regressed this season, after he had been playing like a top-10 player at the position in each of the previous two seasons without a top-flight alpha receiver.

The Raiders reunited him with former Fresno State teammate and All-Pro Davante Adams this offseason. Yet, he’s on pace to basically match his worst numbers across the board for his career if you take out his rookie year, when he was playing for a 3-13 squad.

Carr has gone from finishing behind only Tom Brady with 67 completions of 20+ yards, to being tied for 18th right now with just 19 of those through seven games (which puts him on pace for 46 on the year).

That’s a big reason why Las Vegas has the third-lowest difference in average yards per rush compared to net yards per pass attempt of just 0.7, for a 2-5 squad. When the Raiders have faced a legit pass-rush, protection has been an issue, but considering how effective Josh Jacobs has been in the run game and how quickly Davante can beat his man when one-on-one, this isn’t good enough right now.

#17 Daniel Jones

Now we’re moving on to a couple of guys whose teams didn’t prioritize locking up long-term this offseason. The Giants declined picking up Jones’ fifth-year option. Looking at his resume at the time who could blame them? He had a 21-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the past two seasons, a league-high 36 fumbles since entering the lineup, and a combined record of 12-25 as a starter.

Throughout his career, he’s rarely had a full complement of healthy receivers and he’s played behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. This season, he has now at least moved “behind” Justin Fields and Ryan Tannehill in terms of percentage of dropbacks under pressure (29.1%).

Jones currently ranks 35th among quarterbacks with just nine completions of 20+ yards. A big part of that is the lack of vertical threats in this offense, but the quarterback doesn’t deliver a whole lot of explosive plays through the air.

However, the coaching staff hasn’t really asked him to either, and what he has brought to the table is the ability to keep drives alive, converting 12 of a league-high 35 third-and-long attempts as a passer. Moreover, he's behind only Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields with 363 rushing yards on 64 attempts.

He also has two more game-winning drives to his name than any other team in the league (five).

#18 Jimmy Garoppolo

There’s a big drop-off after Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen as far as EPA per play is concerned, but Jimmy G is the next man up in that statistic (+0.218).

Kyle Shanahan’s ability to create opportunities for big runs and scheme open throws over the middle – the area Garoppolo targets more frequently than any other QB in the league – is the main reason the Niners have been one of the most efficient offenses for multiple seasons.

The 49ers signal-caller ranks behind only the Jets’ Zach Wilson, who works under Mike LaFleur, with 7.2 yards after the catch per completion. This, despite having probably the most dynamic four-man combination of pass-catchers in the league, without a whole lot of big-boy throws outside the numbers.

So the limitations and reasons why San Francisco wanted to move on to Trey Lance still remain, but Jimmy has played his role well. He has completed exactly two-thirds of his passes and he’s fifth in yards per attempt (8.1). He's also one of seven guys with a passer rating north of 100 and outside of Patrick Mahomes, Garoppolo converts the highest rate of third-and-eights or longer (41.7%).

Would like to replace

Now that we’re below that aforementioned line, we've come to the teams that should look to replace their quarterback in the long term.

Some of them are fine for the situation they’re in right now, outside of the one name at the top of these five. Taking him out of the equation, the four other guys can deliver enough to lead fairly effective offenses, just not in the long term.

#19 Russell Wilson

This really is an indictment of what Russ has done during his short time in Denver. No quarterback with a $250 million contract should ever even come close to flirting with that aforementioned Mendoza line, but right now, the Broncos QB is playing at a disastrous level.

His inability to see the entire field, find solutions to post-snap rotations defensively, get off the first read at times and not create any of that Russ magic we’ve seen in his career, has been the biggest reason for Denver’s offense scoring the second-fewest points per game (15.1).

One of the weirdest stats you’ll find out there is that Wilson is fourth in the league, with 28 completions of 20+ yards, yet among current starters, he’s dead-last in percentage of his pass attempts resulting in first downs (30.3%).

That really speaks to the fact he can deliver on those vertical shots on the outside, but not really anything between the hashes. To be fair, he has been pressured at the fifth-highest rate league-wide (27.2%) and the Broncos lost emerging star Javonte Williams four games in. But if the defense was even average, they’d probably be winless right now.

#20 Marcus Mariota

The fact that Mariota hasn’t attempted 30 or more passes since the Falcons' season-opener speaks to the way they want to win ball games. You can question the usage of back-to-back top-10 picks in their receiving corp, but Arthur Smith and the rest of that coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for the way they’ve gotten a roster in transition ready to perform.

Operating in the second-most run-heavy offense certainly doesn’t put as much pressure on the quarterback to consistently move his group down the field, but when the ball is put in Mariota’s hands, he’s provided some big plays through the air.

Counting only starters (since Jameis Winston would be number one with his all-or-nothing 2022 stat line), he leads the NFL with 10.0 intended air yards per pass attempt and his throws being 1.1 yards past the sticks on average.

Plus, when the offense is on schedule and gets to third-and-seven or less, Mariota has gone 16-of-26 (61.5%) as a passer, along with a few more as a scrambler. 21 of his 55 carries (38.2%) have resulted in first downs or touchdowns.

#21 Jared Goff

Jared Goff and Russell Wilson right now have the exact same EPA per play (+0.019). Something even more shocking? He’s currently tied with Josh Allen for the second-most completions of 20+ yards (29).

It’s been a really disappointing season for the Lions (1-6), especially since many had them in contention for a Wildcard berth. However, Goff and the offense hasn’t been the issue. Detroit’s defense has yet to hold an opposing team below 24 points and they’ve allowed 5.8 points more per game (32.1) than any other unit in the NFL.

So while you can argue Goff’s stats have benefitted from the fact that he’s needed to force the issue, constantly being in negative game-scripts in the second halves of games also puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback.

Yet, he’s on pace for his best mark in yards per attempt (7.6) and passer rating (93.2), while all but one of his six interceptions (compared to 12 TDs) came when they were trailing.

#22 Jacoby Brissett

This is similar to the Marcus Mariota conversation, as the Browns have run the ball on 49.4% of plays, despite trailing for the majority of games since their 2-1 start (now at 3-5).

Mariota is the only current starter who, on average, throws the ball further past the sticks than Brissett (0.4 yards). You can call him a game-manager, but when his team needs him to make some big plays through the air, he typically delivers.

Right now, he ranks 13th in percentage of passes resulting in 20+ yards (9.02%), along with being just inside the top-10 in QBR (60.7) and EPA per play (+0.131).

We’ve seen him deliver some beautiful moon-balls down the sidelines, along with shaking off rushers and avoiding catastrophic plays. Potentially the most impressive stat, however, is that 21 of his 31 carries so far have resulted in a fresh set of downs or a touchdown.

Just one QB sneak comes to mind in which he didn’t convert on third- or fourth-and-one. That’s been a cheat code for Cleveland in those situations.

#23 Andy Dalton

Let’s start with this, Dalton had one truly horrific game against the Cardinals, when he tossed three interceptions, with one of those in the opposing end-zone and the other two returned for touchdowns.

If you take that matchup out of the equation, he’s tossed five touchdowns compared to only one pick, which was off a great play by Seahawks’ phenomenal rookie corner Tariq Woolen on a curl route.

That protection of the ball is a welcome sight when compared to Jameis Winston throwing some games away. Taking everything into account, he’s still ninth in EPA per play (+0.141) and eighth in quarterback rating (95.1).

Dalton has definitely benefited from being pressured at a league-low 11.8% of dropbacks, but he’s done an excellent job of quickly working through progressions, along with a couple of kill-shots.

#24 Mac Jones

Mac Jones could easily have been part of the “young & learning” group, which is discussed later. However, right now it feels like he’s unlearning some of the things that made him such a pro-ready player as a rookie.

If he sees what a team's doing defensively before the snap, he has the ability to get the ball to the right target, and unlike popular belief, he’s actually been one of the more aggressive vertical passers in the league, with 10.9% of his pass attempts resulting in completions of at least 20 yards.

He’s also taken advantage of defenses leaving a lane in front of him, converting 15 carries into 74 yards over his past three games.

However, the lack of maturity he’s shown as a decision-maker has been the issue, throwing some balls late and without being able to properly step into them. Only the Steelers’ Kenny Pickett currently has a worse touchdown-to-interception ratio at three-to-seven, with at least one pick in every game.

Young, with growing pains

You can argue all but two of these next five names deserve to be within that bottom tier, but I still see things that make me believe they can be more than that in the NFL. This includes one rookie who has shown some signs of promise in an offense that doesn’t provide much help with the run game or from a play-calling perspective.

The other four guys are second-year players, who have shown flashes, but also a lack of maturity as decision-makers, inconsistent field vision and/or ball placement.

#25 Justin Fields

We’ve finally gotten to the quarterback or rather team that throws the ball on the lowest percentage of snaps. The Chicago Bears currently are at 60-to-40 in terms of percentage of run plays.

For some perspective, exactly half the league throws the ball on at least 60 percent of snaps. However, other than Lamar Jackson, Fields is the most integral component to his team’s rushing success right now.

Through eight weeks, he’s already surpassed his rushing total from a year ago (424 yards). Over the last couple of contests, Chicago’s coaching staff has really started to use him in the designed run game. This, combined with some of the crazy scrambles to convert on third-and-long, has him converting 43.4% of his carries into first downs or touchdowns.

He still has a long way to go as a passer, in terms of discipline, reading the full field and overall accuracy, as he’s currently dead-last among starting quarterbacks, with an on-target percentage of throws at 67.1%.

However, he’s also been pressured at the highest rate in the entire league (31.7%) and has arguably the weakest group of receivers at his disposal. Only 11.95% of his pass attempts have resulted in 20+ yard gains.

#26 Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence showed plenty of promise early in the season, but he simply hasn’t looked the same since Week Four. From that point on, he’s thrown four touchdowns compared to five interceptions, with just one game in which he completed at least 60% of his passes. The Jags have gone 0-5 over that stretch.

Lawrence can consistently rip those difficult intermediate level throws and has been one of the most effective scramblers in the NFL on a limited sample, averaging 7.9 yards on eight attempts.

Yet, he’s painfully conservative at times, when it comes to opportunities to attack vertically, which is indicated by ranking dead-last in the Next Gen Stats metric labeled “aggressiveness” (a correlation of yards per attempt dependent on down and distance).

He's also thrown a few untimely interceptions. We saw it this past Sunday (in London), when Jacksonville was gifted first-and-goal from the one-yard line following a penalty and Lawrence tossed an interception to Justin Simmons while trying to get the ball to one of his receivers working across the field with him.

This was after getting picked off by Texans rookie corner Derek Stingley Jr. in almost the exact same fashion three weeks earlier. This is a talented Jags team that doesn't even need their QB to play like a former No. 1 overall pick to win. As long as he doesn't cost them games, which he has done recently, they should be in a decent space.

#27 Zach Wilson

Since we just spoke about 2021 first overall pick Trevor Lawrence, I think it’s only appropriate to follow up with the guy who the Jets selected right after.

I had Wilson pegged as one of my breakout candidates for 2022, looking at some of the positives he had already shown. This was in terms of having solutions against more static zone coverages, play-creation stuff, combined with the added receiving talent, which he could rely upon to defeat man-coverage.

However, it feels like he’s routinely become a tick late even when he knows where he wants to go. His pocket presence is horrific right now and he can’t help but try to force throws late instead of living to see another down.

Zach Wilson is currently tied with Baker Mayfield for the lowest completion percentage league-wide at 54.9%, and he’s 30th for the position in EPA per play (-0.076).

Seeing how upset he is about himself when he makes some of those bone-headed decision, I do still have some hope that he can turn things around. He clearly thrives under pressure, indicated by the second-best passer rating in the fourth quarter among quarterbacks (108.8).

#28 Davis Mills

You can probably make a case for Mills to rank anywhere from 28th to 32nd. Baker Mayfield saves face for Houston’s 2021 third-round pick a little bit, but discounting the currently injured Panthers quarterback, Mills is dead-last in EPA per play (-0.148) and QBR (31.6).

The reason he isn't even further down this list is the fact that he has fewer pieces around him offensively. He also hasn’t had that one catastrophic performance yet, like some other names below him.

This team was projected to “earn” one of the top two picks in next year’s draft and they are currently number 32 in total DVOA. There are certain limitations from an arm-talent perspective, but his ability to deliver the ball accurately versus off-coverage, get the pass off right at the top of his drop on timing-based patterns and the toughness to hang in there and deliver with a rusher right in his face makes him a formidable pocket passer.

Unfortunately, he doesn’t really provide anything outside of that, and he’s not been good on third downs, going 20-of-68 so far as a passer (29.4%).

#29 Kenny Pickett

People who have watched Pickett play this season act like he’s playing better than he actually is, simply because they haven’t really seen another rookie QB play for extended stretches.

There have certainly been bright spots, looking at some of the well-placed shots down the sideline, the willingness to stand in the face of pressure, and ability to pick up 8-10 yards with his legs when needed.

Still, right now the only current starting quarterback with a worse EPA per play (-0.108) than Pickett is the aforementioned Davis Mills, and as a pure passer, his rating is right at the bottom (66.8).

The two-versus-eight touchdown-to-interception ratio for the Steelers rookie is a bit deceiving, considering two of those came in his first game, when he was inserted about mid-way through week four against the Jets.

A couple more came against the Dolphins, when he had to force the issue on third-and-long twice, while the team trailed by by six points late. Pickett has had to overcome some really questionable play-calling, but with the skill-position talent around him, he needs to do more.

Place-holders

And finally, this last tier consists of three guys who to me clearly are starters based on the team they’re on, rather than franchises making the conscious decision to hand them the reins. I’d be very surprised if any of these guys are back under center when the 2023 season commences.

#30 Taylor Heinicke

Washington Football Team v New York Giants

You could argue Heinicke has played better than Carson Wentz so far in limited action. Heinicke has won his two starts this year and delivered some big plays in both of them.

He’s really fun to watch, with how slippery he is at navigating the pocket, the conviction he shows driving the ball and the toughness he plays with.

Terry McLaurin making former All-Pro corners look like regulars these last couple of weeks has certainly helped, but when he’s in there, the coaching staff has certainly trusted Heinicke. They let him throw to run down the clock versus Aaron Rodgers' Green Bay Packers and then put together that game-winning drive at Indianapolis this past week.

Based off his play this season, he’d probably be higher than 30, but let’s not forget the organization, which hasn’t had anything close to a franchise QB since Robert Griffin III, had a chance to make him “the guy”, but brought in other veterans in each of the last two years.

#31. P.J. Walker

Another guy who probably deserves to be bumped up for what he’s shown over the last couple of weeks is former XFL star P.J. Walker. He has now gone a combined 35-of-58 for 494 yards and three touchdowns versus one interception against their division rivals, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons.

If D.J. Moore didn't foolishly pull his helmet off at the back-end of the absolute rocket his quarterback delivered to him, which traveled 67.6 yards through the air – a new record-long in the Next Gen Stats era – the kicker just made the longer PAT or then delivered from 33 yards away in overtime, Walker would have been 2-1 as a starter.

That looks a lot different than when he finished with -1 intended air yards when first pushed into action three weeks ago against the Rams. He’s clearly been better at delivering big plays than Baker Mayfield, while Carolina’s rushing attack has really taken off since he’s entered the lineup.

He is probably not the long-term solution, but he’s at least done enough to start the rest of the season and be brought back as a backup to whoever the Panthers probably draft in the top-five next April.

#32 Sam Ehlinger

Washington Commanders v Indianapolis Colts

We finish with the guy who has the smallest sample size to show for himself. It was a shocker to learn last week that Frank Reich announced Sam Ehlinger would be the starter going forward, even when Matt Ryan was healthy again.

The Colts have been in quarterback hell ever since the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck. Matty Ice had not been playing well on a consistent basis and dropping him for Ehlinger very much feels like an ownership decision.

However, Indy’s O-line and run game have been sub-par for any quarterback to step into. Now, as far as Ehlinger’s first career start goes, it’s not easy to evaluate. The Commanders only blitzed on five of his 28 dropbacks, yet he was pressured on exactly a quarter of those and as the game progressed, the quarterback’s eyes started looking down on the rush quicker and quicker.

His stat line ultimately didn’t look bad and if not for Terry McLaurin moss-ing Stephon Gilmore late, the Colts probably would've won at home. But their lone touchdown was set up by a Shaquille Leonard interception and outside of their three field goal drives, the only other time Indy ran more than four plays, Ehlinger had a bad strip-sack.