Ranking 6 boom-or-bust prospects in 2024 NFL Draft feat. Bo Nix

As with previous editions, the 2024 NFL Draft will still be more art than science. General managers and front office executives can sift through countless hours of game tape and interviews to assess the prospects they’d like to pick.

But while teams think certain players can help improve their winning chances, there’s no assurance that their impressive college football performances will translate to the NFL. Either live up to the hype or falter in trying to play according to expectations.

The upcoming draft will feature a myriad of hopefuls, each with the potential to become Pro Bowlers or disappointments. Their destiny hinges on the NFL environment they enter and the opportunities they receive. This high-stakes scenario sets the stage for some to shine while others may struggle to establish successful football careers.

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6 Boom-Or-Bust Prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft

Solid arguments for an early selection can be made for these prospects. By dominating their college football foes, they looked like men among boys. However, the situation can quickly go south, leading to little to no playing time. Depending on how the wind blows, they could either shine or struggle.

Here's a look:

6) Braden Fiske – Defensive Tackle, Florida State

Pro Football Focus gave the former Florida State defensive tackle a 73.9 overall mark in 2023. While he got a lower than his 86.6 in 2022, his last year at Western Michigan, it still puts him among the best interior defensive lineman prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Fiske proved PFF’s grading accurate when he impressed scouts during the Senior Bowl. He also turned heads when he ran the 40-yard dash during the 2024 NFL Combine at 4.78 seconds, a remarkable feat for an athlete of his size.

While he is an explosive defender who became a Second Team All-ACC member last year, his short wingspan could make him struggle in the NFL, especially in run defense. If drafted early, he could be a bust.

5) Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver, Texas

During the 2024 NFL combine, Worthy completed the 40-yard dash in 4.21 seconds, the fastest official time ever. Aside from that feat, his 75 receptions for 1,014 yards and five touchdowns with the Texas Longhorns last season strengthen his draft stock. He could thrive for an NFL offense using him as a slot receiver.

However, it’s rare to see an athlete with a blazing 40-yard time build a successful NFL career. John Ross completed the drill in 4.22 seconds but did not make the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs’ active roster. Chris Johnson became an All-Pro running back but unceremoniously retired after 10 seasons. Dri Archer played for only two seasons and is currently a free agent.

Worthy can significantly follow those players’ fate if he doesn’t bulk up. Physical defenders could have their way against him if he remains at 165 pounds.

4) James Williams – Safety, Miami Hurricanes

Williams initially played safety for the Miami Hurricanes. But his height (6’ 5”) and weight (231 pounds) make him suitable for linebacker. He transitioned during the Senior Bowl and played impressively due to his reactionary instincts and speed.

However, his success in the NFL will depend on which position they will ask him to play. He could thrive under a defense, prioritizing his ability to quickly dash to the sidelines, mainly during the run defense. Allowing him to exercise his physicality can make Williams one of the best draft steals.

But given that he hasn’t played many snaps as a linebacker, he could still be under the learning curve. Therefore, there’s no guarantee he will be great at the position.

3) Amarius Mims – Offensive Tackle, Georgia Bulldogs

He has the physical attributes (6’ 8”, 340 pounds) to dominate in the NFL. Mims has a long wing span to impede pass rushers and the strength to move away defensive linemen, creating holes for the run game to thrive. He also moves well for his size, making him an ideal pull blocker during rushing plays.

However, his health remains Mims’s most significant concern because of an ankle injury that limited him to seven games last season. He was a reserve in all but one game in 2022 and saw limited snaps in 2021. Resolving that issue could make him an elite offensive lineman. Otherwise, he might stay with the team that will draft him beyond his rookie-scale contract.

2) Chop Robinson – Defensive End, Penn State

Robinson earned First Team All-Big Ten honors last season after finishing with 15 tackles, four sacks, and two forced fumbles. For his efforts in 2023, Pro Football Focus gave him a 92.3 pass-rush grade. He continued to impress during the combine, running 40 in 4.48 seconds and completing a ten-foot, eight-inch broad jump.

However, his struggles to convert quarterback hurries into sacks could be a concern in the NFL. While he can win battles at the line of scrimmage because of his athletic advantage, his limited strides could be a problem against more physical offensive linemen. Robinson’s arm length can also be a question mark.

In terms of former Penn State standouts, Robinson can either be a Micah Parsons-type of player or like Odafe Oweh, who is still trying to establish his dominance.

1) Bo Nix – Quarterback, Oregon Ducks

Nix vastly improved his game from Auburn to Oregon because he didn’t have to do much. While he has a more talented roster around him, he completed an average of 74.7 percent of his throws in two seasons. Nix established an NCAA record 77.4 completion percentage in his final year at Oregon.

While replicating those numbers in the NFL would be difficult, Nix’s decision-making and pocket awareness will be tested when he gets his opportunity. The team that will draft him hopes to display that Nix will manifest his composure during big games, like what he did against Michael Penix Jr. and Washington.

While he could be a late first-round pick, he might not have a support group as talented as he had in Oregon (Bucky Irving, Troy Franklin, Tez Johnson). Can he carry a pro team on his shoulders but maintain sound decision-making? That’s the make-or-break question for his success in the NFL.