Super Bowl LIV: San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs preview and predictions

The Xs and Os

Chiefs offense vs. 49ers defense:

For the Chiefs offense, on the other hand, it all starts with the speed they have across the formation and how they can stress you with the vertical passing game. We have seen Patrick Mahomes chip away with underneath completions and check-downs as defenses forced him to, but a lot of that has to do with how focused opposing teams are to not get burnt over the top and most of the KC passing concepts have some type of vertical stretch integrated.

One of Chiefs’ favorite plays is when they come out in a trio set with Travis Kelce lined up at tight-end as the single receiver and then spread the field with vertical concepts from their three receivers, while Kelce crosses the field underneath. As teams tell their DBs to stay over the top no matter, KC eats them up with deep curls or some type of shallow cross concept.

That can be particularly dangerous when defenders are asked to follow those speedsters across the field and even if you think you know the answer by having your linebackers sit on those routes and allow the trailing defenders to catch up as the receivers have to work their way around traffic, the Chiefs seem to have a solution.

Whether that is clearing out space by leaking one the running back out in the flats or when the linebackers are asked to carry the crossers underneath them in more of a zone look, you have Travis Kelce or Sammy Watkins exploiting that voided space with somebody sitting down over the middle.

The most important part for the Niners in that regard is having that free safety stay balanced and not allow windows horizontally, especially against those trio verticals. Because even though the Niners run a lot of single-high safety and that number three receiver coming across about half the field is the weakness for that kind of defense, I would much rather see them have the backside corner ready to pick up it and Jimmie Ward be ready in-between the hashes, as those seam routes are carried towards him.

Asking a 31-year old Richard Sherman to play in-between vertical routes in deep-third responsibility might be a big problem, because as good as he is, those guys across from him will just be flat-out faster. We saw Jimmy Graham streak wide open downfield against them in the later parts of the NFC Championship game, as Aaron Rodgers moved the safety with eyes, and Davante Adams also got past Sherman for a 65-yard grab.

Obviously that is only part of the solution, as the Niners will need their D-line to wreak havoc once again, not giving Mahomes the time to let someone create separation eventually and it will be up to them layer their pass rush as well as staying disciplined with their lanes to not allow the QB to extend plays.

Kansas City will need to move the pocket every once in a while for some easy target to stay ahead of the sticks on first downs or convert on third-and-short, but more importantly they have to find ways to keep that D-line from coming upfield as quick as they usually do by at least keeping the run a threat. I like how creative Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy have been with their run schemes recently, like running power with a pulling guard and having a wing-man from the back-side leading up the hole to go with it, or keeping defenses off balance with great timing off the jet sweep fake and the inside zone right behind it going the opposite direction.

You also saw Tyreek Hill score on a touch pass against the Titans and maybe the Chiefs can counter that by faking that action to one of their speedy receivers and getting the ball to Kelce lined up off the line or as an H-back on a shovel pass the other way. The Packers had some success throwing those quick outside screens off light run-fakes and they were most productive in the run game by getting to the edge on toss plays as well as forcing the edge defender on the backside of zone plays to stay home with Davante Adams coming across the formation on jet sweeps, which created a big cutback lane Aaron Jones. Well, nobody scares defenses more on those types of plays than Tyreek Hill – so that should work out pretty well.

If I’m the Niners, I am telling my edge guys to not come upfield at all when left unblocked, but instead be ready for Kelce coming across the formation as he slips into the flats or maybe they are throwing a screen right over that defender’s head. San Francisco have very trustworthy corners in run support and their linebackers can cover a lot of ground quickly.

That’s also why the secondary may give up some easy completions on five-outs and hitch routes, but those guys actually make the receivers pay for catching them. And with Fred Warner, Kwon Alexander and Dre Greenlaw, they also have the type of linebackers, who can carry some of those fast receivers as they cross their face. As scary as it may sound with all those fast guys I have been talking about, Robert Saleh’s DBs need to have that internal clock after like three seconds to stay with whoever is in their zone at that point, because Mahomes is just so great at extending plays and moving around to create space in-between the zones as the play progresses.

Oh, and if those deep guys see Mahomes scrambling around, they better turn and run if they are already 30 yards deep, because there is probably somebody streaking down the field and that QB can put it 60-70 yards through the air.

For a defense that mostly revolves around the old Seattle single-high cover-three press-bail scheme, you just can’t give Mahomes the same looks all the time. You need to make him re-scan the field after the snap by rolling coverages and bringing some six-man pressures in certain situations and versus certain formation, where you have a good feel for what they will run.

You also have to be deceptive when doing it and use defenders to replace the areas those blitzers were originally responsible for, so the Chiefs can’t have one of their receivers sitting down in open space and make people miss after the catch. One of those wrinkles you could use is blitzing the nickel and having somebody race out there a couple of times and then switch it up with a fake blitz off the slot to avoid hot-reads, just like Tennessee did and almost had Tyreek reverse field for a 15-yard loss.

Another question is – How do you spy Mahomes? I think you maybe mix it up, like using one of the interior D-linemen when having your D-ends in a wide nine and have him ready to disengage either way or have Fred Warner reading the back other time and coming on greendog blitzes if a lane opens up. As much as I love the way Shanahan and the 49ers take advantage of defensive weaknesses with superb game-planning, you know Andy Reid off a bye will have a few crazy plays ready for Miami. I can’t wait to see those.