'%20x='0'%20y='0'%20height='100%25'%20width='100%25'%20%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20xlink%3Ahref='data:image/jpg;base64,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'%3E%3C/image%3E%3C/svg%3E)
The build-up
There has been a lot of talk about the surprise of the season throughout the year, but with what has happened through these first two rounds of the playoffs, you can’t pick anybody over the Titans as that team for 2019 – and it is even less about preseason odds than where they were mid-season. After shellacking the often-hyped team of the offseason in the Browns 43-13, Tennessee lost four of their next five, including being held scoreless in Denver in week six. That made the coaches insert Ryan Tannehill into the starting lineup and he became one of the biggest stories of the year.
Not only did the Titans win seven of their ten remaining games, their new quarterback led the league with a passer rating of 117.5 over that stretch. In addition to the offense going to a different level and some key defensive plays, these guys basically won two games on blocked field goals – at the Colts and in their first matchup against the Chiefs. While hey received a lot of help from the Jets beating the Steelers in week 16, thanks to close home losses to the division-rival Texans and the Saints, the Titans still needed to win their regular-season finale at Houston.
With the AFC South already clinched and nothing to gain at this point, the Texans decided to rest the majority of their starters and Derrick Henry’s 200-yard day not only won him the rushing title but also secured a Wild Card spot. Coming into the New England as the six-seed, the Titans physically took it to the Patriots, as Henry once again went for over 200 yards and two scores on 35 touches, while the defense held Tom Brady and company scoreless in the second half while ending the game on a pick-six. Then last Saturday night they went into Baltimore to take on the number one team in the entire playoffs and completely took them out of their game. Despite being outgained by 230 yards, the three turnovers and four different fourth-down stops led to a final score of 28-12.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, were one of the bigger favorites to win the Super Bowl coming into the 2019 season. They brought pretty much everybody back from that team that came one offside penalty short of winning the AFC last season while adding veterans on defense in Frank Clark, Tyrann Mathieu, and new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. After starting the year off 4-0, Kansas City scored a season-low 13 points in a home loss to the Colts, followed by another defeat to the Texans at Arrowhead the following week – a stretch over which they gave up an average of 186 rushing yards.
Many people thought the formula was out there for beating the Chiefs in terms of controlling the clock and keeping their explosive offense off the field, but actually what happened in a huge win over the Broncos almost derailed their season, as Patrick Mahomes appeared to have separated his kneecap. Thankfully it only took the superstar quarterback two weeks to recover from the injury and his backup Matt Moore went 1-1 in his absence, but in his return, the Chiefs lost to their opponent for this weekend 35-32. KC didn’t lose another one of the remaining six games, while the defense allowed just under 10 points and they outscored teams by over 16 points per game.
They also got some major help from the Dolphins, who upset the Patriots at Foxborough as a 17-point underdog in the season finale, to give Andy Reid’s group the number two seed. Coming off the bye, these guys didn’t seem to be awake for about the first 20 minutes and thanks to a few crucial mistakes, they dug themselves a 24-0 hole. From that point on, however, the Chiefs outscored Houston 51-7 and the offense at one point had scored seven consecutive touchdowns, while Frank Clark proved why he was worth trading for with his three sacks on Deshaun Watson.
Titans offense vs. Chiefs defense
There is no real mystery about what the Titans want to do offensively – they want to hand Derrick Henry the ball 30+ times and then fire some kill-shots off play-action. Nobody in the history of the NFL has put together more than Henry’s 377 rushing yards through the first two rounds of the playoffs even though he had to go through Bill Belichick’s number one overall defense and the Ravens’ fourth-ranked group, who had allowed just two 100-rushers all year long.
While Tennessee’s offensive line deserves a ton of credit for opening up lanes inside and allowing him to get to the edge, it’s about what the nearly 250-pound back does once he builds up some momentum. Throughout the regular season, Henry averaged 4.2 yards after contact alone and he has improved that mark to 4.7 in these playoffs. While it would seem like teams should be able to bring down someone with a huge frame like his by attacking him low, it’s the length of his arms that allows the bruising back to keep defenders off him and he is about as fast as it gets for someone his size once he can accelerate. What makes it tough to contain is that Tennessee uses their tight-end in a variety of ways, moving them in and out of the backfield, keeping the backside pursuit honest with jet sweep fakes and the O-line sustaining those double-teams pretty long.
As much as Kansas City struggled to stop the run in the middle of the season, they actually do have several big bodies they can put on the field and after Derrick Henry ran went for 188 yards on them in their prior matchup, they allowed an average of just 95 over their six-game winning streak. When these teams first met, the Chiefs D really crashed the front-side on zone runs and forced the big guy to cut back. However, we also saw what happens when that backside edge defender is too conservative and allows a lane between him and the offensive tackle when Henry went for a 68-yard score.
Defensively, you actually have to make him stop his feet and lose some of that momentum because when he gets past that initial wave and you ask your secondary to tackle, it’s time to say good night. In that week 11 game, the Titans didn’t have a lot of success running out of 12 personnel, which allowed KC to keep three D-tackles on the field shaded towards the strong side to go with Frank Clark on the weak-side edge, as well eight defenders in the box.
Tennessee was much more productive running the ball from 11, where they added in some power runs, that allowed Henry to either follow a lead-blocker or it made the backside linebacker completely overrun the play and opened up a lane from where the pulling guard left. I would also like to see them use some more shotgun and go zone read, which takes an extra defender away from Henry and create those cutback opportunities or they leave Tannehill uncovered for crucial pick-ups. What actual work well was those jumbo packages, because the Chiefs kept the same personnel out as they did against just two tight-ends, where you have a safety or even corner with gap responsibilities.
The biggest difference between the Titans offense with Marcus Mariota compared to Tannehill now is the frequency at which they hit deep balls off play-action. Their coaches do a nice job feeling the game out and knowing when to use the aggressiveness of the defense against them. Oftentimes you only have two receivers in the pattern – a deep over and an even deeper post – and if you don’t use jump calls for that middle safety and have corners with the speed to replace him, they will eat you alive with those chunk plays.
Last week against Baltimore they connected with Kalif Raymond for a 51-yard score on a post-corner-post, which had All-Pro corner Marlon Humphrey spinning around as Earl Thomas jumped on the over. As far as the drop-back pass game is concerned the Titans use a lot of simple high-low concepts but use different formations and personnel sets to run them out of. That can mean flat responsibility for one of the tight-ends and a receiver running a corner route over the top from a reduced split and then coming back to using an in-line player for the deeper route with a back coming into the flats.
The Titans also excel at identifying man-coverage with pre-snap motions and then forcing defenders to work around traffic on routes coming back the other way or mesh-type concepts. Tannehill is much better equipped to work his way through progressions than Mariota – whose biggest weakness was the fact he oftentimes couldn’t move on from his primary read – and he is simply not afraid to let it rip. I like what Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has done with changing up looks and being more aggressive with his blitz packages, but they have to stay disciplined with their rush lanes or Tannehill will tuck it and take advantage of it like he did a couple of times in the first matchup.
Chiefs offense vs. Titans defense
Andy Reid is one the most creative offensive minds the NFL has ever seen and you have to look to no further than the first meeting between these two teams to see that. The number of formations and motions the Chiefs used was astounding, with the usage of Travis Kelce being the most interesting to watch. Whether that is using him to dictate coverage pre-snap or tossing him a shovel pass on the goal-line. My favorite play of that game came in the third quarter when the Chiefs faked the run to one of their one way and faked Travis Kelce to come underneath the O-line but then work back outside and get the ball to him on a throwback screen for a nice gain.
Kansas City also loves those 3-by-1 sets with Kelce as the single receiver. He excels at using the space between the corner who is leveraged outside and the safety over the top and just when that safety starts breaking on any type of curl route, you see the Mahomes go for the kill-shot with Tyreek Hill or Mecole Hardman on a deep post across the field. They almost hit one of those in the first game in Nashville. Moreover, when the Titans showed man-coverage by following guys across the formation they did have their linebackers holding up crossers and allowed primary cover-guys to come over the top, but what the Chiefs did was take force those LBs to come upfield with the backs running swing routes and that made it almost impossible for anybody to stay with the speedsters they have on that offense. Matching up one of those 4.3 guys with somebody in the slot for fade routes will once again probably be part of the plan as well as running guys off with in-breaking routes and then throwing screens to Damien Williams & Co back behind them.
When I go back to the theme of the last time this Titans defense faced Kansas City’s explosive attack, the one thing that really stands out to me is that they did not respect the ground game whatsoever. The Titans rarely had more than two stand-up linebackers on the field and they immediately dropped at soon as the ball was snapped. Even when running RPOs with pulling linemen, the D-line stayed pretty static and everybody got depth, but more importantly width in their drops to take away those easy completions on in-breaking routes behind it.
Early on Tennessee played a ton of man-coverage with more zone against condensed formations and in third-and-long situations, but as Eric Bienemy made those defenders run their asses off with picks and route concepts out bunches, they used a lot more two-high looks. While DC Dean Pees did to Baltimore what they usually like to do themselves defensively – which is showing all-out pressure looks and keeping the opposition off balance by not knowing who is actually coming – what they did a lot against Kansas City are slot blitzes.
On those, they only bring at the last moment and usually roll one of those safeties down where the nickel was, but in the last meeting, the space between that middle and the linebackers made them very vulnerable, as Tyreek exposed it twice for big yardage. With that being said, I was very impressed by the Titans DBs in the last two games, because those guys not only more than adequate speed but also break on routes very aggressively and excel at playing the point of the catch.
Since Tennessee did not respect the Chiefs run game at all when these two last met up, I think you should see more commitment to that part of the offense – which Andy Reid is known for neglecting at times. Their most success on toss plays with pullers out in front and outside zone plays to the edge. I would also like to see more fly sweeps and some Tyreek Hill in the backfield to force the front to flow more with the play. The Titans backers really shot up those inside gaps and it left them vulnerable once you got past them.
KC’s play-action should be mostly about moving the pocket or to get the ball to the backs with quick fakes to them and then take advantage of the space underneath as the defense drops out. The Titans use a lot of late coverage rolls to force opposing QBs to hold onto the ball, the only problem being Mahomes is the best at extending plays and throwing off-platform, which we already saw on that jump pass in the first game.
To me, the only way to slow this offense down is to change up your looks and be willing to stay ahead of the curve with in-game adjustments before these guys figure you out and start shredding you. On the other hand, Mahomes can’t get too aggressive and take some free dump-offs in the flats. He almost started the last game with a pick, as he was rolling to the right and threw the ball all the way across the field. From my film study, Kevin Byard lining up over Kelce is a huge tell for man since they don’t trust Kenny Vaccaro against him and the combination of misdirection and screen plays should be a big factor once again.
X-factors
Titans – Jonnu Smith and Jayon Brown
I don’t want to call Jonnu Smith deceptively fast, because he is just flat-out fast. Outside of rookie receiver A.J. Brown, he is the most explosive weapon in the passing game for them. If I was the Chiefs and I needed to prepare for this game, I would commit a lot of my bodies to slow down Derrick Henry and then keep everything in front of me when they want to take those deep shots off play-action, so hitting my dynamic young tight end on crossers of bootlegs or maybe slipping into the flats after faking the split zone could be a great way to gain yards after the catch. We have also seen him boost the offense on screen plays or simply line up in the backfield and taking handoffs.
Defensively, this really is an X-factor, because we don’t even know if Jayon Brown will be available on Sunday. I mentioned the third-year man in one of my latest articles as a highly underrated player and he could be a crucial piece for the Titans once again. While Rashaan Evans has stepped up even more in the absence of his running mate, Brown is better in coverage. Not only will he be put in situations where the ball could be thrown right behind him if he flows too much with the run, but he also needs to carry Kelce down the field on seam routes against two-high shells and if Tennessee brings one of those safeties down, he needs to limit the space between him and the guy in the deep middle.
Chiefs – Mecole Hardman and Chris Jones
On the Chiefs side, I am looking at the guy who I thought gave the team some life after falling down 24-0 against the Texans last weekend. Not only is Hardman big for them in terms of determining field position in the return game, he can be a coverage-killer if the Titans allow him to be. Whether that is taking advantage of safeties having to come down to take away those intermediate completions and him running past them on deeper routes across the field – as I mentioned before – but also if they do decide to keep a safety over the top Tyreek Hill at all times, like we have seen a couple of times in the playoffs now, he could feast on the open space created by that. Of course, he can also be a spark on jet sweeps and screen plays for them.
I usually don’t like using what I think of as star players as X-factors, but in this spot, Chris Jones could be a huge difference-maker. We don’t know for sure about his status for Sunday yet since he was a surprise scratch last week as well, but if he plays he could be the Chiefs most important defensive player on the field. In the last game against the Titans, Jones had a strip-sack on their first possession of the game, as he beat up a double-team. He is an elite pass rusher when healthy and could be the reason Tannehill doesn’t get rid of the ball on those deep play-action passes, but it is also his ability to penetrate in the run game and force Henry to change directions a couple of times.
Prediction
I really believe that this is not the matchup the Chiefs were hoping for. Sure, the Titans entered the playoffs as a six seed, but after eliminating Baltimore, they are now the hottest team in the league since Tannehill was inserted into the starting lineup. Kansas City feasts on obvious passing downs, where Spagnuolo can get creative with his pressure packages and those pass rushers can really get off the ball, but Tennessee doesn’t want to give them any of those. By controlling the clock, they can keep that high-flying offense on the bench and dictate game-script potentially.
With that being said, I just think Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the game today and he has too many weapons around him. Dean Pees has done a masterful job being multiple with his defensive scheme and forcing quarterbacks to hold onto the ball, but the way Mahomes can manipulate coverages by moving around and threw with different arm-angles to take advantages` he just created will be the difference.
Tennessee 27-34 Kansas City
