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New England Patriots:
Offense – Rex Burkhead
I have said this many times. The Patriots truly are a power run offense when they are healthy. They use a traditional fullback more than any other team and they want to gash defenses with heavy sets to take away that trend of defenses getting smaller all the time to keep up with the speed of opposing offense. Their workhorse has been rookie Sony Michel. In 13 games the former Georgia Bulldog has carried the ball 209 times for over 900 yards, but he caught just seven passes all year. James White on the other hand is New England’s premier receiving back, recording 87 catches compared to 94 rush attempts. That trend was in full effect last Sunday in Foxborough, when Michel carried the ball 24 times while recording just one catch and White caught 15(!) passes, which tied a playoff record, but didn’t have the ball handed to him once. So the fact that Michel has clearly been their power runner, as the Patriots have run the ball on 75 percent of the snaps he has been on the field, and White ate up the Chargers soft zone defense on quick passes into the flats shows you obvious run-pass splits for this teams depending on who lines up in the backfield. There I believe New England’s third back could be the difference-maker versus the Chiefs.
The Patriots went into the season saying Rex Burkhead would be their go-to guy out of the backfield and even though I never believed that because I knew what kind of talent they had in Michel and that Brady loves to have White on the field on third downs, I anticipated a larger role for the former Bengal. Burkhead has appeared in just eight games and been on the field for a mere 13.5 percent of their offensive snaps, carrying the ball 57 times and being targeted 20 times in the passing game. However, I believe he could be a key factor in the AFC Championship game. The Patriots are notorious for rotating their backs and switching up snap counts on a weekly basis and with those run-pass splits Burkhead can be a wildcard and mess with the tendencies Kansas City has been studying. On the first snap of the Divisional Round game Burkhead was on the field to run off the flat defender and open things up underneath for fellow RB James White. I can already see him streaking down the sideline as the defender with that responsibility gets sucked up against White after those 15 catches. It just feels like it is all set up for Burkhead to come into Kansas City and be a featured weapon for the Pats, plus he is a key special teamer for them.
Defense – Duron Harmon
We all know the names of All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore, stalwart free safety Devin McCourty and to a lesser degree veteran Patrick Chung. I have also talked about rookie corner J.C. Jackson on plenty of occasions recently, but there is one guy in this secondary that has been playing very well and could play a big role in this game – Duron Harmon. While the Rutgers alumn has started just 24 of 95 career games for the Patriots and even gave up his number 30 to new teammate Jason McCourty (who has also played plenty of snaps for them), Harmon has been an impact player for New England in several games. Like so many other Belichick guys, the coach saw something in him not a lot of other people did when he selected him in the third round after being projected to go undrafted. He has played more than 60 percent of the Pats defensive in these last two years and recorded four interceptions respectively, as the Patriots use more three safety sets than any other team in the league. With all those spread offenses and wide open playbooks around the NFL this is the way these guys up in Boston are countering with versatile defenders.
While Devin McCourty is still their primary free safety, having Harmon in the lineup gives New England way more flexibility. They can drop Patrick Chung down on tight-ends or ask him to cover shallow zones or even use McCourty in a robber role while they roll Harmon into the deep middle. As the Chargers game went along and the Patriots went to more conservative two-high safety looks, Harmon controlled one deep half and Los Angeles could not go over the top on him. As the Chiefs will try to spread their opponents out, the Patriots will play with five or six defensive backs constantly and Harmon could be the key to avoid the deep ball to Tyreek Hill or make a tackle one a receiver running free, looking to cross the field on him. This game has the potential be a high-scoring affair just like their first meeting, when the Chiefs came up just short by the score of 43-40. One key tackle by the last line of defense or an interception on a deep ball could make the difference – and Harmon already picked off Patrick Mahomes in when he faced him the first time. I expect him to be on the field for the majority of the snaps once again and we will know early on what his role is going to be for the afternoon, until Belichick and his guys could completely change things up at halftime that is.
