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Peeking into Aaron Rodgers and Packers' stunning downfall

Tennessee Titans v Green Bay Packers
What happened after Aaron Rodgers' back-to-back MVP seasons?

From the top seed in the NFC two years in a row to winning a mere 36% of games; oh how Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have fallen.

To find a season where Aaron Rodgers wasn't the league MVP, you'd have to leave the 2020s.

But things are different this season.

After 11 contests, Green Bay has a record of 4-7. The Rodgers-led team is currently third in the division, sitting outside the playoffs looking in. Even if the Packers were to win all six of their remaining contests, they'll record three fewer wins than both last season and the season prior.

What could've caused such a drastic change over such a short period of time?

It's easy enough to blame a team's quarterback when things suddenly go south, but that isn't the problem here. Surprisingly, Aaron Rodgers is still performing at a high level by virtually every metric that exists. Pro Football Focus has the veteran quarterback as the 10th-highest-graded QB and 10th-best passer.

This is due to Rodgers having the third-highest percentage of Big Time Plays - a pass with 'excellent' ball placement and timing in key situations - among starting quarterbacks (6.0%). He also has the third-lowest percentage of turnover-worthy plays among starters (2.1%).

Beyond that, no quarterback in the NFL has a higher percentage of on-target throws than Aaron Rodgers this season (80.6%).

These are things the 38-year-old can control; here are the things he can't.

There are only six starting QBs league-wide whose receivers have dropped a higher percentage of passes than Rodgers (6.9%). Once the ball is snapped, Green Bay's signal caller has an average of 2.59 seconds to get rid of the ball, which ranks 11th-lowest.

Needless to say, these detailed analytics of Rodgers' play this season have been extremely impressive, much more so with the minimal help he has. Why these impressive analytics aren't translating to wins may have something to do with the loss of wideout Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders.

No player on the Packers' roster has cracked the top 30 via receiving yards this season, nor the top 10 in touchdowns. Meanwhile, Davante Adams is picking up right where he left off in Green Bay, where he averaged 97.6 yards per game through both 2020 and 2021 with 29 touchdowns in 30 contests.

This is a direct correlation with the [lack of] success in Green Bay.


Aaron Rodgers is on pace to hit the worst winning percentage in a season of his career

Tennessee Titans v Green Bay Packers
Tennessee Titans v Green Bay Packers

If the season was to end today, Aaron Rodgers' 36.36% win percentage (4-7) would be the worst single-season mark of his career.

With Matt LaFleur as head coach, this is the first time the Green Bay Packers have lost two games in a row.

Their remaining schedule houses some tough opponents as well.

The Packers will be in Philadelphia in Week 12 to battle the 9-1 Eagles. Later in December, Green Bay will travel to Florida to take on the third seed in the AFC: the 7-3 Miami Dolphins.

During the first week of 2023, the 8-2 division rival Minnesota Vikings will be in town with hopes of a series sweep. When the two clubs met earlier in the season, the Packers walked away with a 7-23 loss.

Green Bay will end their season with a match against Detroit, hoping to get even after a 9-15 loss in Week 9. In the team's first meeting against the Lions, Aaron Rodgers threw a pair of interceptions in the red zone.

At this point, the ship for the postseason has all but sailed, but Green Bay can still dress their season record up a bit. The Packers must win half of their remaining games for Aaron Rodgers to escape a new career-low win percentage.

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Edited by Nicolaas Ackermann
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