Why Denver Broncos second-year running back Javonte Williams will break out in 2022

Javonte Williams had an incredible 2020 college season. He rushed for 1,140 yards, 19 touchdowns and added three touchdowns through the air. But when the Denver Broncos traded up five spots (to 35 overall) to select him, a lot of people were surprised. Mainly because they had Melvin Gordon in his second campaign of a two-year, 16-million dollar contract.

Yet, once the rookie hit the field and flashed his talents, almost everybody was calling for him to take over lead duties for the team. Williams and Gordon carried the ball exactly 203 times each. Gordon finished with 918 yards, compared to Williams’ 903, and with eight touchdowns compared to Williams' four.

The rookie, however, did catch and impressive 43 passes for 316 yards and three touchdowns. He also gained 64 first downs over the campaign. Denver did bring back Gordon on a one-year, 2.5-million dollar deal. But looking at what the youngster was able to do when given the opportunity, he figures to be in line for a more extensive workload.

Here are five reasons why Javonte Williams could have a breakout year in 2022.

#1- Javonte Williams will build on his rookie season

Detroit Lions v Denver Broncos

Williams could still become more efficient with subtle movement in tight spaces to set up run plays for himself. His ability to make more dramatic plants, bounce out wide and dip and weave around penetration is already impressive. He comes from a North Carolina offense that primarily runs inside/outside zone and basic GT power. Therefore he’s still working on maximizing his running lanes from a conceptual perspective. The Broncos will help him with this.

If it’s just about getting one defender leaning the wrong way behind a block, he can already do that at a pretty high level. That being said, those numbers are also indicative of what he can create individually, particularly with his ability to string moves together. He has unreal contact-balance and leg-drive. He uses this to bounce off or plow through defenders. He will continue to get better in many of these aspects and will have improved from his season in the NFL.

#2- Javonte Williams has an incredible skillset

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In his debut campaign, Williams forced 63 missed tackles on 203 rushing attempts. This was just two short of the league’s leader in that category, Jonathan Taylor, who carried the ball 129 additional times. In fact, the rookie’s MTKL rate of 31 percent was the highest mark since Marshawn Lynch in 2014.

He doesn't quite have the burst to consistently threaten defenses around the edge. This was illustrated by the fact that his worst EPA per attempt came on outside zone last season (-0.67). But he packs a wicked straight-arm to push off pursuing defenders and he has the power to pull through swinging arms. There isn't a corner in the league that will want to tackle this guy.

#3- Denver trust him on key downs

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Going through this past season, the usage of Denver’s running backs in the passing game was rather surprising, considering the aforementioned extra receiving production Williams had.

A huge part of why the rookie was so involved in the later downs was due to the fact that the Broncos trusted him for protection. At 5’10”, 220 pounds, Williams is very solidly built. He packs a good punch to take the steam off blitzing linebackers or push overzealous free rushers past the arc. There’s some room to perfect his aiming points, consistently taking the right step-up angles and working inside-out. But for such a young back, he’s already pretty damn good and we saw that action over an established pass-protector in Gordon.

More tangible is the receiving production Williams was able to amass in year one. He hauled in 43 of 53 targets for 7.3 yards per catch, despite catching the ball 0.6 yards behind the line of scrimmage on average. There were lots of check-releases and swing routes, along with a few option routes, where he showed some burst coming out of those 90-degree breaks.

He may not be proven downfield in that regard, but he really presents himself as an attractive target. He has plucky hands, even when the ball’s not right on the numbers (just three drops) and once the catch is secured, he becomes a tough tackle in space. Even if twisted off balance, he can spin out of it and at least propel himself forward.

#4- Russell Wilson will utilize him when in need

Denver Broncos Introduce Quarterback Russell Wilson

Looking back at 2020, when Chris Carson and Russell Wilson were both healthy in Seattle, the Seahawks' running backs were targeted 98 times. That was the year that we saw them open up the passing offense the most.

While Wilson may not be overly comfortable trying to fit balls into tight windows over the middle, his backs do benefit from the touchdown-to-checkdown he brings to the table. Particularly when presenting themselves as options after clearing the line of scrimmage off play-action.

This offense probably won't look like the one new head coach Nathaniel Hackett was part of in Green Bay the last three years. But the fact that their top two backs averaged 104.3 targets over that stretch is obviously another positive sign.

#5- Russell Wilson will keep defenses honest

Denver Broncos Mandatory Minicamp

Trading for a true franchise quarterback in Russell Wilson looks like a wise decision. Especially paired with new head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Hackett is orchestrating an offense built around his strengths, so Williams should face a lot more favorable looks to run against.

Unlike Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock, Wilson can take advantage of all the receiving weapons at his disposal. He will force defenses to keep two safeties high so he can’t just work those one-on-one's with Courtland Sutton. Jerry Jeudy will take on the role of Tyler Lockett. Jeudy and Wilson will adjust the break-point of the route off play-action based on the leverage of deep coverage defenders.

The Broncos did include a former first-round pick in tight-end Noah Fant in the trade for Russell Wilson. They still have Albert Okwuegbunam and drafted UCLA’s Greg Dulcich in the second round of the draft. These guys may not be amazing in terms of in-line blockers, but they are serious threats down the seams. This will force defenses to sub in an extra safety instead of a linebacker.

It will be very exciting to see how Williams can increase his production in year two. In his one actual start last season at Kansas City, Williams was cut loose, touching the ball 29 times for 178 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. He was able to produce at that kind of level, despite not cracking 60 percent of the offensive snaps in any other contest.

Given how reliable he was on passing downs already and that he got better once he was able to build some momentum, we should expect a big season from him. Around 1,800 scrimmage yards and double-digit touchdowns are not off the table at all.