How the Dolphins can beat the Patriots - 6 keys to Thursday Night Football

The Dolphins wll have to dig deepIf the Miami Dolphins under recently appointed Dan Campbell hope to pull off a humongous upset against the unbeaten New England Patriots, these will be the keys to their success:

#1 Will the Miami defensive line continue its mid-season renaissance against the Patriots?

Defensive end Cameron Wake has recorded 6 sacks in his last two games after being shut out through the first four

The highly vaunted Miami defensive, featuring stars like Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon, had just 3 sacks through their first four games. Then came the firing of Joe Philbin, and things have changed. The Dolphins have recorded ten sacks in the two games since, including 6 for Cameron Wake and 2 for Ndamukong Suh.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is getting sacked just over two times per game on average. The offensive line has rotated heavily so far this season, with rookies manning the interior line and injuries to tackles Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon and Cameron Fleming.

The starting five linemen on Thursday night is anyone’s guess. Sebastien Vollmer made the move to left tackle in the Patriots last game, but with Cameron Wake traditionally coming off the quarterback’s open side, he might be needed back in his more natural right tackle position. It’s an interesting chess match, and one that is sure to be fascinating to watch play out on Thursday night.

#2 Emotion vs Robotic efficiency?

Since Dan Campbell’s elevation to the head coaching role in Miami, the enthusiastic former player has injected some energy into the team. They are, perhaps for the first time this season, playing with a lot of emotion and ferocity. This is quite often dangerous against the Patriots.

The Bills admitted after their week 2 loss that coming out to play the Patriots requires poise and focus, and it was the lack of that focus because of their emotive playing style that ultimately cost them the game. If you fly off the handle against the zen-like Patriots, they’re going to punish you for it.

So Dan Campbell has a challenge in getting his players prepared for this contest. Will the head coach continue to play the role of frat-house motivator? Will he give his players free reign to let their emotions show on Thursday night? Early indications suggest that he will. Linebacker Chris McCain asked Gronk about pic: He said(w/ smile) that'd be illegal. If he gives us 15 yds, we'll take it. @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/6IRktX3FTd

— Omar Ruiz (@OmarDRuiz) October 26, 2015 " target="_blank">tweeted a picture on Monday that shows first that the Dolphins aren’t afraid of their Super Bowl champion division rival, but also that the Dolphins haven’t adhered to the rule that you don’t give the Patriots bulletin board material.

This game feels like a ‘let’s prove ourselves’ game for the Dolphins, and if they get too aggressive and too emotional on Thursday night, that is going to translate into penalties and mistakes.

#3 The progressing Dolphins\' Run Game

The Dolphins’ defensive line is not the only unit that has improved dramatically since Dan Campbell has taken charge. Running back Lamar Miller has posted 288 yards rushing in the last two weeks, including 175 yards in the first half against the Texans last week. In the four games previous, he had only 131 yards total.

Running the ball keeps Tom Brady off the field and takes time off the clock, and that is a recipe for success when playing New England. Miami needs to keep their productivity on the ground going if they are going to take advantage of this game.

Doing that won’t be easy. New England restricted the Jets on the ground last week, holding them to a total of 89 yards rushing, well below the team’s season average of 136.5. Run stuffing linebacker Donta Hightower looks to be back to full fitness following a shoulder injury that knocked him out of two games early on. The Miller vs Hightower matchup will prove to be one of the most important one-on-one battles tomorrow night. Whoever wins it will go a long way towards ensuring his team’s success.

#4 Can Miami stop Gronk?

Stopping Patriots All-Pro Tight End Rob Gronkowski needs to be high on the Dolphins list of priorities on Thursday night

Jordan Reed, Charles Clay and Delanie Walker are the three best tight ends that Miami has faced so far this year. Noticeably, all three had big statistical games for their respective teams. Rob Gronkowski is twice the player any of those three are, and is coming off a career high 11 catches against the NFL’s best scoring defence, the New York Jets. It will be interesting to see whether a defence that has struggled to stop above-average tight ends will be able to stop the NFL’s very best.

The best way to slow Gronkowski down is to make him necessary as a blocker. If the Miami pass rush can consistently put Tom Brady under pressure, the all-pro tight end may be needed to stay in and help with protection. If the Dolphins manage that, then they have one less weapon to worry about.

#5 The Money Down

Tom Brady and the Patriots have been lethal on third down this season, converting a league best 50.7%

So far in 2015, New England is converting 50.7% on third down, the best percentage in the league. Conversely, Miami is converting 28.6%, the worst percentage in the league. If that trend continues on Thursday night, the Patriots are going to win. Miami has to find a way to sustain drives on offence and get Tom Brady and co. off the field. Above everything else, this will be the key part of the game and the reason for the victory.

#6 Making the step up

Miami have been dominant in the two games since Dan Campbell took over in week 5. However, it’s important to recognise the level of competition they were facing. Houston and Tennessee are the 19th and 30th ranked scoring offences. New England is the 1st. Tennessee and Houston are the 16th and 28th ranked scoring defences. New England is the 12th. Houston and Tennessee ranks 25th and 26th in turnover differential. New England ranks 4th. Tennessee and Houston will both find themselves outside the top 20 in power rankings this week. New England is either 1st or 2nd in every major poll found.

This is a whole different challenge for Miami, and they will need to seriously up their game on Thursday night. It’s one thing embarrassing a beaten and unmotivated Houston side at home; it’s entirely something else going into New England’s house and coming out with a win. It’s the toughest ask of the season for the Dolphins, but if they stay focused, get to Brady with the pass rush and keep producing on the ground, they have the tools to succeed.