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So where does he feature on the list?The NFL is a wonderfully unpredictable league. Every year teams and individual players rise from obscurity and fall from grace in spectacular fashion. This year is no different, with a flurry of players and franchises bringing new expectations, both good and bad, after their play through the first seven-week of the season.Here, I look at the biggest surprises so far, from rejuvenated veterans to flopping Super Bowl contenders.
#10 Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos
The fact that Manning isn’t playing up to par is not as much of a surprise given his obvious lack of arm strength down the stretch in 2014. But the sheer drop in Manning’s continued poor play in 2015 has gone beyond that, and it has been one of the bigger talking points in 2015.
While we’ve known for a while that Manning’s arm strength isn’t what it once was, what we’re seeing this season is something else entirely. I wrote in an article after week 2 that “The problem is that while Peyton clearly still has a Peyton Manning mind, he doesn’t have a Peyton Manning arm.” I’d like to retract that statement, because the Peyton Manning mind isn’t there anymore either. The future Hall-of-Famer is making mental errors and throwing inaccurately at key moments, forcing the Denver defence to pick up the slack each and every week.
Manning leads the NFL with 10 interceptions and has only 7 touchdowns. His 6.43 yards per attempt and 72.5 quarterback rating are the second worst marks in the league behind Ryan Mallett, who just got cut by the Texans. As great as he once was, for everyone’s sake I hope this is Peyton Manning’s final season in the NFL. Remember him for what he was, please, and not for what he’s become.
#9 Oakland Raiders
Admit it. Just like me, you had the Raiders pegged for another miserable season. After all, this is a franchise that hasn’t won more than 8 games since 2002. Well, this isn’t the Oakland Raiders you are used to. This is a competitive team that sits at 3-3 in mid-October. No longer do opponents chalk up an automatic W when they see the Raiders on the schedule.
They embarrassed San Diego in week 7, and outplayed the Bears in a close 22-20 loss in week 4. They even came within one score of Peyton Manning’s Broncos. They’ve won two road games already, having won only one road game in 2014 and 2013 combined, and two of their losses came against currently unbeaten teams (Broncos, Bengals).
We are seeing the difference this season in the Raiders, and it starts with their young nucleus of core players. Quarterback Derek Carr, running back Latavius Murray, star rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper and linebacker Khalil Mack are leading this team to relevance, and they’re doing it at least two years before I thought that could be possible.
With winnable road games against Tennessee and Detroit on its schedule, we could possibly be looking at the first Raiders team with a winning record in over a decade. Now that would really be a surprise.
#8 Todd Gurley, RB, St Louis Rams
Nobody knew what to expect from rookie running back Todd Gurley this season. The Rams selected him with the 10th overall pick in the 2015 draft, so they saw the potential. But how much can you really know? Rookies are unpredictable. Rookie running backs are very unpredictable. Rookie running backs coming off a torn ACL who only participated in non-contact drills in training camp are as close as it gets to impossible to predict.
Sitting out the first two games while still getting up to match fitness, Gurley made an unimpressive debut against the Steelers, carrying six times for 9 yards. What Gurley has done since has surprised everyone. 146 yards on 19 carries against the Cardinals. 159 yards on 30 carries against the Packers. 128 yards on 19 carries and his first two NFL touchdowns against the Browns.
Boasting a unique power-speed combination, Gurley posted his third consecutive top-five speed (21.21 mph) among running backs as a ball carrier against the Browns, on a 48-yard run in the third quarter, per NFL.com.
Gurley has the 12th most rushing yards in the entire NFL despite missing two games and doing almost nothing in his debut. He leads the league with 110.5 yards per game and is starting to be mentioned in the same breath as Adrian Peterson and LeVeon Bell.10th overall pick or not, nobody expected Gurley would be this good this soon. He might legitimately be an all-pro when all is said and done this season.
#7 Devonte Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
I might be a little bitter about this one because I drafted Tevin Coleman for my fantasy team back in August. So did a lot of people, I might add. And with good reason. Freeman offered little last season to suggest that he would be capable of becoming a featured back for Atlanta, never mind the top 5 calibre back he has shown so far in 2015.
Handed the reigns in opportunistic fashion in week 2, after an injury to Coleman, Freeman has seized his second opportunity with aplomb. He leads the NFL in rushing yards and touchdowns. He’s also added 34 receptions for 310 yards (both 3rd among running backs) and another touchdown. He has more touchdowns on the ground than Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees have in the air. Given the disappointment of last season, very few people could have anticipated this from Freeman.
A strong favourite for Atlanta’s mid-season MVP, Freeman is not just getting pro bowl attention from the league this season; he’s getting mentioned as a possible All-Pro. And as the most productive back in the NFL through 7 weeks, he would thoroughly deserve it.
#6 Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton has always been a middling quarterback. NFL.com’s ‘Around The NFL Crew’ knew that much when they created the ‘Dalton-Scale’. Basically, Dalton was the medium by which all quarterbacks could be judged.
He was good enough to not replace, but not good enough to take you deep into the playoffs. He would have occasional bright spots, and then fade into a human pick machine in the bright lights of primetime. So if you’re quarterback was better than Dalton, you had a franchise quarterback worth keeping. If he was worse, you didn’t.
Not this year, apparently.
This year’s version of the Red Rifle is unrecognisable when compared to the Andy Dalton of the last four years. His completion percentage, touchdown percentage and yards per attempt are all way above his career best to this point, while his interception percentage is easily the lowest of his career. He looks aggressive, accurate, ruthless and fearless, not words usually associated with Cincinnati’s man under centre.
Surrounded by the best talent in his career (Jeremy Hill, Gio Bernard, AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu), as well as an offensive line that is keeping his pocket clean, Dalton doesn’t look like he’s going to slow down anytime soon.
Having dismantled both Seattle and Buffalo’s stellar defensive units in back to back weeks, Dalton has now taken the necessary steps to go from pretender to very real MVP candidate.
#5 Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Last season, Larry Fitzgerald finished with 63 receptions, 784 yards and a career-low 2 touchdowns. It was his 11th year in the NFL, and with the emergence of younger pass catchers John Brown and Malcolm Floyd, it wasn’t even a given that Fitzgerald would be back with the Cardinals in 2015 because of salary cap issues. He was still an icon in Arizona, but it seemed to most of us that Father-time might be catching up with him. How wrong we were.
Fitzgerald has started his 2015 campaign with the best opening six weeks of his career. He ranks 5th in the NFL in receptions, 5th in yards and tied 1st for touchdown catches. He’s also 3rd in the NFL in receiving first downs, showing an uncommon blend of dynamic playmaking ability and reliability from the slot in his 12th season in the NFL. The ageless pass catcher is on pace for 105 catches, 1,422 yards and 13 touchdowns, which would be his best statistical season ever. He’s 32 years old.
Fitzgerald has remade himself this season as the most dominant slot receiver in the NFL. He is posting great numbers, coming up clutch and holding onto touchdowns while getting bulldozed by defenders in the end-zone. With the possible exception of Tom Brady, no player in the NFL is fighting father-time better than Arizona’s #11.
#4 Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills
When pre-season began, the competition for Buffalo’s starting quarterback job was a genuine three horse race between Taylor, EJ Manual and Matt Cassel. Now, half way through the regular season, the mere notion that either Manual or Cassel could be anything like as effective or dynamic as Taylor on the field is laughable.
Taylor has appeared from nowhere to become an overnight sensation in upstate New York. Sitting for four years on Baltimore’s bench, nobody really knew what to expect when Taylor was thrust into the bright lights of the NFL regular season. The result has been surprising and spectacular.
Through his first five NFL games, Taylor has a 70.1% completion percentage, better than Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers. Despite a depleted arsenal with injuries to Sammy Watkins, Karlos Williams, LeSean McCoy and Percy Harvin, Taylor has become a focal point of the offence, throwing for more touchdowns in 5 games (9) than Russell Wilson has in 7 (8).
Taylor also ranks 5th among quarterbacks in rushing yards and has added 2 rushing touchdowns, tied for second among quarterbacks. All this despite missing the last two games through injury.
Buffalo has found its quarterback for the foreseeable future, and that is something not many people expected back in August. With the bye week now to rest up and get healthy, Taylor should be back on the field thrilling us with his playing style once more in week 9.
#3 Indianapolis Colts
The Colts entered the season as not just the heavy favourite for its division, but a viable Super Bowl contender. However, what we’ve seen instead is a mistake-ridden team that can’t score points and can’t stop anyone. They sit at 3-4 after 7 games, with little hope of doing anything more than losing in the wild-card round of the playoffs.
The most surprising aspect of the Colts this year has been the play of franchise quarterback Andrew Luck. Luck, the supposed strength of this franchise, has been a complete liability, throwing nine interceptions in five games. In fact, in the only game in which he’s played well all season, the 34-27 home loss to the Patriots, the team still found a way to shoot themselves in the foot courtesy of one of the dumbest special teams plays the NFL has ever witnessed.
With two tough games against the Panthers and Broncos upcoming, this squad could be 3-6 entering its bye week and in serious trouble. The head coach, Chuck Pagano, is under serious pressure and might not last the season at this rate. The owner and general manager are having shouting matches in the locker room. This is not a team equipped for the playoffs, never mind the Super Bowl. And that goes against almost everyone’s expectations entering the year.
#2 Chris Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Old. Not enough production. Speed was his weapon and it’s not there anymore. These were all things we were hearing about the former CJ2K for basically the past three years. And that was before we all read this in March: “ Former New York Jets and Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson is in stable condition after being shot in the shoulder during a drive-by shooting that occurred at 4 a.m. Sunday at an intersection in Orlando, Florida, according to police.” This per ESPN.com.
Due to a lack of productivity over the last two years and obvious questions about his health following the shooting, Johnson went unsigned as training camps opened at the beginning of August. He signed a deal with the Cardinals two weeks into camp, and most people speculated whether Johnson would even make the roster.
What has followed has been insane production through the first half of the season. Johnson has more rushing yards than anybody in the NFL except Devonta Freeman after week 7, and he has a better yards-per-carry rate than anybody else in the top 10.
While Johnson’s former top-line speed is no longer there, he now has vision, patience and he’s bouncing off tacklers, traits we didn’t see in his arsenal during the early part of his career. Thrust into the starting role after an injury to Andre Ellington, Johnson has done more than head coach Bruce Arians could have ever dreamed of in mid-August.
Personally, I’m not completely sold that Johnson’s production is going to be a season-long endeavour; if you scrap his 62 yard run last week against the Ravens (when the play had essentially stopped while he sat on top of nose tackle Brendon Williams) then the former CJ2K is averaging only 3.2 yards per carry over the last two games. He’s slowing down a little as teams adjust to his new style and see his tendencies on tape.
However, that hardly matters right now. The production he’s put in so far in 2015 is enough all on its own to land the veteran runner at number two on my NFL surprises list.
#1 Dion Lewis, RB, New England Patriots
It’s hard to overstate how under-the-radar Dion Lewis was entering this season. An afterthought in Philadelphia after being drafted with a 5th round pick in 2011, Lewis was sent to Cleveland in 2013 but broke his fibula before ever getting on the field. After sitting out the year, Indianapolis signed him at the start of the 2014 season but cut him just a week later. He then sat out the entire 2014 season before landing on the Patriots depth chart in December.
Entering training camp as part of a deep position group and fighting for a roster spot, Lewis was looked over early in favour of the more recognised Travaris Cadet and incumbent James White, who made the roster but sits as Lewis’ backup on the depth chart.
Lewis proved his talent to Bill Belichick in August, and then set about proving it to the rest of the world in September. Already an upgrade over Shane Vereen, offering more versatility, lateral agility, explosiveness and power, the diminutive runner has become an important part of the league’s leading offence. He has even remained on the field despite two fumbles in as many games to start the season, something that more often than not lands you in Bill Belichick’s dog-house.
Lewis is simply too valuable to take off the field this season. His elusiveness rating, per Pro Football Focus, is off the charts and his reliability catching passes has made him Brady’s third favourite target behind Gronk and Julian Edelman.
